January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

Hate it when storms miss my area and slam New England. The lack of precip this winter has been lol worthy.

Any thoughts on when we may break out of this pattern for real? By this pattern I mean the endless troughing over the NE Pacific. I think it could be spring 2016 before we really come out of it.

[snow_wizard]

2002-03 was worse in my opinion.

I think if you exclude mid Nov to very early Dec this one is worse. No question if you look at Oct through Jan.

[Dan the Weatherman]

I think if you exclude mid Nov to very early Dec this one is worse. No question if you look at Oct through Jan.

Meanwhile, drought conditions in CA continue to get worse due to this endless ridging pattern preventing any bona fide Gulf of Alaska storm systems from coming into the region. There may be some rain in CA next week, but the storm is coming out of the south and will be way too warm for snow except in the highest peaks, so it won't really be a benefit to the snowpack.

[Phil]

Any thoughts on when we may break out of this pattern for real? By this pattern I mean the endless troughing over the NE Pacific. I think it could be spring 2016 before we really come out of it.

Given zonal elasticity, the upcoming changes in the low frequency tropical forcings, and the lack of a midwinter PV breakdown preventing a stable recovery, I suspect we're priming for an early final warming event sometime in February or March. Essentially, this is the stratospheric transition from the winter circulation/eddy field, to the summer circulation.

 

In other words, it might be time to call it a winter. I'd watch late February, just in case, but otherwise, lol.

[richard mann]

It is quite remarkable how ridgy this January has been, especially considering that last January was almost just as ridgy.

 

I really thought with the flip to +PDO that California would have had quite a bit more storminess than last January. Socal did have a decent storm to begin the month, but much of Norcal has been high and dry.

 

In fact in Northern California Dan, I can tell you that since the last significant rainfall here, in Paradise, …

 

— East of Chico, ridgeland foothills of the Central Northern Sierras, avg. rainfall per annum, 55 inches or so, so wetter generally. /.. From the 15th through to the 21st of Dec., 6.45 inches with a third of an inch more on the 24th., 

 

And with virtually no rain here in Jan. to this point, .14 of an inch on the 16th, and a trace on the 19th, …

 

... that things are pretty dry here at this point. 

 

Main Climatology, average rain for Jan. here is 10.8 inches. 

 

— Additional perspective, fuller Dec. we actually approached double of normal, 17.25 set against 9.1 inches. With then further back, Nov. and Oct. both fair, near to 5 inches set against 7.25, with 2.45 set against 3.1 inches, respectively. And with a bit more than an inch of rain in mid-September.

[richard mann]

Given .... zonal elasticity, ..... the upcoming changes in the low frequency tropical forcings, and the lack of a midwinter PV breakdown preventing a stable recovery, I suspect we're priming for an early final warming event sometime in February or March. Essentially, this is the stratospheric transition from the winter circulation/eddy field, to the summer circulation.

 

In other words, it might be time to call it a winter. ...... I'd watch late February, just in case, but otherwise, lol.

 

How about we just call it: .. a winter one third complete. .. Show and maintain a little patience and fortitude, and hope for the best instead. ... Would that be ok. ?

 

.. Let me ask you a question here professor. Which one, or two perhaps, of the people tuning into this thread, had you thought "might"perhaps have been interested in hearing your "view", expressed here above, before you'd posted it. 

 

(Yeh, fine. Now answer the question.)    .. Count Jim, if you like.

 

Any thoughts on when we may break out of this pattern .... ?

[Phil]

.. Let me ask you a question here professor. [/b]Which one, or two perhaps, of the people tuning into this thread, had you you thought "might" have been interested in hearing your "view", expressed here above, before you'd posted it. [/b]

 

If you're not going to add anything productive to the discussion, please stop replying to me. I'm getting tired of this sort of nonsense. It's a waste of bandwidth, frankly.

[richard mann]

.. ridiculous.

[richard mann]

.. Any thoughts on this here above "Chris". ?

 

— Tantamount to a prediction I'd say. Certainly where looked at more generally.

 

Steering, advice, more in particular ? .. I'll certainly regard whatever you have to share, as such.  @

 

.. My own more basically thinking, with this "more extended general outlook's" (?) main timeframe not having played out as yet, but only just begun, your use of the word "wrong" earlier today, might have to be looked at a bit more abstractly. 

[Phil]

What are you rambling on about now? I replied to a question from Jim..go take a Valium or two and try to get some rest.

[richard mann]

Fortunately, someone from where I live south hasn't asked you if you're seeing any drought relief in sight any time soon. 

 

— Have, an "holly, jolly. ...

[richard mann]

-
As I'd suggested yesterday, at this point Alaska is appearing [finally] to be looking like more of a main focus-point where considering more primary cold's main path-steering more northward.  @

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc con.php?image=na&inv=0&t=cur

http://weather.unisys.com/upper air/ua hem.php?plot=n5&inv=0&t=cur
http://weather.unisys.com/upper air/ua hem.php?plot=n8&inv=0&t=cur

[TT-SEA]

We haven't a decent snow here in 3 years now.

 

I know for a fact a climate where it's consistently cold and snowy will be much better for me. It's gotten to the point where I get way too down when nothing is going on and way too keyed up when there is even a hint of snow in the forecast. In a consistently cold and snowy area I will be on much more of an even keel.

Remember a couple weeks ago when you were scolding people for being negative and happily proclaiming that the "evidence is mounting!"

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It wont be like this the rest of the winter. Jees. Give it 10 days max and we wo t be dealng with this pattern.

[stuffradio]

Remember a couple weeks ago when you were scolding people for being negative and happily proclaiming that the "evidence is mounting!"

Maybe he could move to Lillehammer.

[snow_wizard]

Remember a couple weeks ago when you were scolding people for being negative and happily proclaiming that the "evidence is mounting!"

You just can't help yourself can you? You know how close we came to getting hit when I and others said there was a good chance. That was probably the only period in the past several months I felt hopeful about something good happening. Overall I've been consistently proclaiming how awful the pattern has been over the past year for cold weather fans.

[snow_wizard]

It wont be like this the rest of the winter. Jees. Give it 10 days max and we wo t be dealng with this pattern.

I wouldn't be so sure about that.

[TT-SEA]

You just can't help yourself can you? You know how close we came to getting hit when I and others said there was a good chance. That was probably the only period in the past several months I felt hopeful about something good happening. Overall I've been consistently proclaiming how awful the pattern has been over the past year for cold weather fans.

 

You did it... whenever you become overzealous in your excitement and start scolding people who are being realistic then I know a crash for you is coming soon.    Happens every time... and happened again.

 

Way too high then way too low.   Over and over again.  

[ShawniganLake]

I wouldn't be so sure about that.

Hey, there is always next winter. The 100 year anniversary of the winter of 1915-16. I wonder if mother nature cares about things like that. There was a 145" of snow here that winter. And 14-15 was a snow dud as well.

 

Turns out 2014 was the warmest year on record for Shawnigan lake. Temperature records go back to 1914. Thanks to "Glaciers" for that stat.

[FroYoBro]

I'm starting to think that it's unlikely we get snow this January.

[MossMan]

Epic snows coming in Febuary! Epic!

 

Or it could be like the one year around 02 or 03 can't remember where I was out jetsking in Febuary. Either way would work for me.

[stuffradio]

I got a foot of snow in March 2003.

[luminen]

I'll wait till March 20th to call it a winter. We could get some anomalous snow in March. 

[snow_wizard]

Hey, there is always next winter. The 100 year anniversary of the winter of 1915-16. I wonder if mother nature cares about things like that. There was a 145" of snow here that winter. And 14-15 was a snow dud as well.

 

Turns out 2014 was the warmest year on record for Shawnigan lake. Temperature records go back to 1914. Thanks to "Glaciers" for that stat.

I'm pretty concerned about a Nino next winter. If we don't have one it could be a decent winter.

[snow_wizard]

Meanwhile, drought conditions in CA continue to get worse due to this endless ridging pattern preventing any bona fide Gulf of Alaska storm systems from coming into the region. There may be some rain in CA next week, but the storm is coming out of the south and will be way too warm for snow except in the highest peaks, so it won't really be a benefit to the snowpack.

It's like no matter what combination of MJO positions or ENSO we are in Mother Nature finds a way to keep it dry down there and torchy up here.

[Parksvillewx]

I'm pretty concerned about a Nino next winter. If we don't have one it could be a decent winter.

 

Think it'll spike again? Looks like most models want to level things off then slowly head more neutral. Except for the CFS...because..its the CFS.

 

[TT-SEA]

New long range outlook through most of February... don't worry about it.   Brett uses red colors too often.   It will not be warm along the West Coast.   He showed that a couple weeks ago for right now and look how that worked out!   

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2015/590x458_01230433_jan22a.png

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2015/590x458_01230434_jan22b.png

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2015/590x458_01230435_jan22c.png

[wx_statman]

This might be the warmest/driest 7 day forecast I've ever seen for January in Portland:

 

http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/ibs_web_7-day.jpg

[snow_wizard]

Think it'll spike again? Looks like most models want to level things off then slowly head more neutral. Except for the CFS...because..its the CFS.

 

figure4.gif

We're in a bad WWB / low SOI period right now. Very unfortunate because the Nino was in the process of rapidly weakening due to cold subsurface water beginning to upwell into Nino 1+2. The warm subsurface water had just run out days before the atmosphere became very Ninoish over the tropical Pacific. This current regime will delay the demise of the El Nino by at least 2 or 3 months.

[snow_wizard]

This might be the warmest/driest 7 day forecast I've ever seen for January in Portland:

 

http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/ibs_web_7-day.jpg

Seems like everyone is forgetting we are still in inversion season. The ECMWF in particular screams inversions next week.

[Tyler Mode]

Currently 55 degrees and the sun is peaking through...

[stuffradio]

We're in a bad WWB / low SOI period right now. Very unfortunate because the Nino was in the process of rapidly weakening due to cold subsurface water beginning to upwell into Nino 1+2. The warm subsurface water had just run out days before the atmosphere became very Ninoish over the tropical Pacific. This current regime will delay the demise of the El Nino by at least 2 or 3 months.

It's premature to worry about next Winter. Wait until September to be worried about next Winter.

[TT-SEA]

Seems like everyone is forgetting we are still in inversion season. The ECMWF in particular screams inversions next week.

Who cares? And you are probably wrong again. You seem to overestimate inversions.

[Jesse]

Seems like everyone is forgetting we are still in inversion season. The ECMWF in particular screams inversions next week.

My guess is that the lowlands will torch pretty bad the next week. We are getting into the outer margins of inversion season and are starting out with a warm, fairly well-mixed atmosphere today.

[Deweydog]

You just can't help yourself can you? You know how close we came to getting hit when I and others said there was a good chance. That was probably the only period in the past several months I felt hopeful about something good happening. Overall I've been consistently proclaiming how awful the pattern has been over the past year for cold weather fans.

 

Can you?

[TT-SEA]

I like hearing about the weather in other parts of the country... even if it's bragging.

 

In fact... I respect the bragging if that is what will be happening.

[BLI snowman]

My guess is that the lowlands will torch pretty bad the next week. We are getting into the outer margins of inversion season and are starting out with a warm, fairly well-mixed atmosphere today.

 

Yeah, pretty obvious that this won't be a good inversion pattern. Our inversion will be soupy and mixed out. We'll still see a lot of 55-60 temps in the valleys, with high dewpoints and warm nights. Getting a moist warm front going into a ridge pattern is really ideal for optimizing warmth.

[Tyler Mode]

A year ago today it was 57 degrees.  The major difference is that was after a low of 24.  This morning's low was 49.

It was also one year ago today that Matt Sloan measured a wind gust to 122 mph (pegged) at Crown Point.

[DareDuck]

If you like inversions come down to Eugene, I don't like them however. Today is a beautiful day though and its already 58. Have to figure out which hike the pup is up for today.

[Bryant]

Well, on the bright side, the MJO looks to become favorable for the west around the midway point of next month. Roundy plots show the MJO stalling out over the IO for a while before finally propagating across the MC. We'll see