The Snowman Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, bud2380 said: 3k NAM would be great by me. Been some time since Omaha had a model run to swoon over! Given recent trends, 3-4" (isolated 5") seems pretty fair in the city. Gradient is sharp enough that a minor northward shift could bring about several more inches, but that will be a nowcast-type item to examine. Cheers to the folks looking at double digits out of this thing, finally feeling like winter! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 NWS Topeka has broken the WSW into two groups. Group one 4-8". Group two along and southeast of the Kansas Turnpike 2-5" with more sleet. I'm sure group one will be put in a warning and group two an advisory. Naturally, I'm in group two. 3 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 LOT has issued watches for Chicago & other N IL counties. Event: Winter Storm Watch Alert: ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Steady, blowing snow and dangerous travel possible. Total snow accumulations greater than 6 inches and northeasterly wind gusts in excess of 40 mph are possible. * WHERE...Lake IL, DuPage, Northern Cook, Central Cook and Southern Cook Counties. * WHEN...From Saturday morning through late Saturday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility, especially along the Lake Michigan shoreline. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The steadiest snow rates appear most likely between noon Saturday and midnight Sunday. 1 3 Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 hour ago, The Snowman said: NWS Omaha extends the Winter Storm Watch to cover Douglas & Sarpy counties; watch text indicates 2-5" so probably an impact-based watch instead of an amounts-based watch. NWS in Des Moines also expanded watch north and west by one county each. Upped the text to include 8 inch amounts. Definitely coordinated between the offices Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_GradStudent Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 Just doing some comparisons between operational runs of the nam, gfs, and euro. Speed: Gfs is the slowest, followed by the nam, then the euro. 850 Temps: Comparing each of the three, gfs is by far the coldest, with the euro in the middle, followed by the very warm nam. QPF: Nam is by far the wettest, followed by the gfs, and the euro. Talk about tough forecast. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 lol...18z ICON back to the south... 1 1 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 minute ago, mlgamer said: lol...18z ICON back to the south... That's like 3 years worth around here lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_GradStudent Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 ICON is a dream haha. If only lol. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, someweatherdude said: They all suck donkey balls. Everyone on this forum has had a model give them a ton of snow only to have it go poof hours before it's supposed to start. And everyone has been told by a model that the snow will miss them 24 hours out, only to get the snow. The 2018 Thanksgiving weekend blizzard was supposed to hit Des Moines up til about 24 hours before it hit KC instead. We can trash any given model, but the fact is that none of them is reliable under the classic definition of "reliable." At this point any of the solutions are still viable, and they differ enough to make a significant impact, or nothing. Might be one of those we don't know what's happening until it starts snowing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 Omaha office gradually updating their data for the afternoon; point & click forecast now has 2-4" in Omaha, PoP chances increased from 60% to 90%. Imagine the afternoon set of snow graphics won't be much different from those a few hours ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 small shift north on the GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 Euro has a tight gradient right through Lancaster county. Could be a situation where the airport (NW) gets 3" and SE Lincoln gets 6". My grids have 3-7" while WSW wording is 4-8". Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, bud2380 said: small shift north on the GFS. Digging that look for the OMA-LNK area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 GFS gives me a couple inches this run compared to nothing on the 12z. Take what ya can. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 For my fellow Nebraskans - 18z GFS total precipitation (left) alongside 12z GFS shows the scale of improvement for the Omaha area, snow-wise. Comparing with implied snow-ratio charts on Pivotal Weather, it looks as though this snow would be falling in 19:1 - 21:1 ratio territory (NWS Omaha notes 16:1 - 18:1 ratios in their latest AFD hot off the presses, however). Assuming a 17:1 ratio and GFS verifying verbatim, this spells a 7" snowfall for Omaha; assuming a 20:1 ratio, it gives Omaha just over 8". Still have quite a bit of ground to make up from recent southward model trends, but this is as good a sign as we can get here in the 18z runs. Baby steps. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 18z RGEM didn't get posted that I saw. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 DVN got much more robust with snow totals in their AFD. My point forecast went from 3-5" to 4-8" with another 1-2" Saturday night. At this time, the highest potential for these impressive snowfall rates looks to be south of I- 80. Snow ratios will obviously be increasing through the event as colder air infiltrates, possibly getting close to 20:1 in the heart of the heaviest snow. Went with WPC snow ratios, which generally range from 12 to 16:1 through the event. Latest snowfall amounts look to range from 8 to 10+ inches within the heaviest band, which currently looks to lie roughly along the US 34 corridor. Broader area surrounding that heavy band will see potential for 6 to 8" with the lowest amounts of 3 to 6" along the US 20 corridor. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 GEFS mean 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 I like that DMX stated they will reduce the normal 6" in 12 hour criteria to 4" in 12 hours due to the strong winds, blowing and drifting snow and the first snowstorm of the season. So expect winter storm warnings to run a county or two further north than normal. They usually seem to issue warnings earlier than normal now, so I'm expecting them to be hoisted tomorrow morning, but I think it would be more prudent to wait until tomorrow afternoon since the snow won't start for most areas until Saturday AM or very late Friday night. Still expect 6+ inches of snow for a large portion of southern Iowa and possibly central Iowa. This snow will be fluffy and easy to blow around. Expect increasing wind of 15 to 25 mph with gusts over 35 mph at times will create significant blowing and drifting of snow. Not blizzard criteria but still bad given the first winter storm. Will default from typical 6" in 12 hr criteria to 4" in 12hr along with sustained 25 mph wind and blowing snow for warning upgrade decisions. Will have a partner webinar on Friday at 11 am. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_GradStudent Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 49 minutes ago, someweatherdude said: They all suck donkey balls. Everyone on this forum has had a model give them a ton of snow only to have it go poof hours before it's supposed to start. And everyone has been told by a model that the snow will miss them 24 hours out, only to get the snow. The 2018 Thanksgiving weekend blizzard was supposed to hit Des Moines up til about 24 hours before it hit KC instead. We can trash any given model, but the fact is that none of them is reliable under the classic definition of "reliable." I was just more making a joke. I barely look into the ICON. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 Here's the 18z GEFS ensembles 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 GEFS went north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 I’m happy the NAM is finally including Chicago! Im still nervous but we seem to be in a good spot overall. It’d be awesome if it was one of those storms that strengthens more than models were predicting, I’d love to see one of us get 12”+ out of this! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 DMX mentions that some solutions are showing shallower dry air intrusion allowing snow to edge a bit more north. Gonna be a sharp cutoff regardless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_GradStudent Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, GDR said: GEFS went north Not sure what you're seeing. This is the QPF mean. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 I'll likely guess the low end of the model snow range because my ratio always sucks when there is blowing and drifting. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 10 minutes ago, Jack_GradStudent said: Not sure what you're seeing. This is the QPF mean. There was bump north on the northern edge for Nebraska/Iowa, prob what he meant. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tbone8 Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 I'd say 1-3" is a solid prediction for this area at this point. My specific area, that is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 16 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: There was bump north on the northern edge for Nebraska/Iowa, prob what he meant. You are correct! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 21 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: There was bump north on the northern edge for Nebraska/Iowa, prob what he meant. Yes there was; or at least it came in more juicy to the north affecting my area. I'm riding the fine line; northern part of the county looking at 1-2" while southern part of the county looking at 3 maybe 5". 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted December 30, 2021 Report Share Posted December 30, 2021 Garden City, KS is looking very cold on New Years Day. Could see highs around 10F and lows below zero! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 31, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 18z euro a little wetter 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 Another model cycle, another comparison. 15z SREF vs. 09z SREF, QPF totals. Not totally sure what this precipitation orientation is, as the latest cycle gets rid of that heavier precip closer to Kansas City and instead spreads it seemingly all around. Fascinating to watch all of this guidance meander around as we move closer to the event. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 18z Euro is improving 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 Here James and I sit...in no man's land...lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 After the slowest start to winter Ive ever experienced in the midwest, run after run, model after model for several days consistently has my part of se Iowa in the sweet spot. I must admit being in the snow business and a weather enthusiast it will be a unprecedented letdown if this storm bust! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 minute ago, jcwxguy said: We can probably cut 30% off the HRRR totals. I'd certainly still take that. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted December 31, 2021 Report Share Posted December 31, 2021 We’re preparing for our New Year’s storm come Saturday night. A low of 23* expected and a High Sunday of 43*. Low again of 26*. Starting the year off right!! 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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