PSA:
The NWS always appreciates observations, especially detailed observations that everyone on here is capable of giving. That can be done thru Twitter, as they often set up a feed for that, or the mPing app. That can include final snowfall amounts, when the snow starts/stops, precip type, dew point, etc
This helps them with short term forecasts as well as future forecasts as they can learn from them. A few years ago they had a freezing rain advisory for Leavenworth, but I notified
GEM looks pretty similar to ECMWF on Monday and still builds in a pretty big ridge because the trailing system comes south into Alaska so strongly that the lead system can't dig down into the PNW.
Appears to be an all or nothing situation... compromise doesn't seem to be on the table. Forecast is going to change dramatically when GFS and GEM finally cave.
I don’t know that the GFS and GEFS add any value to the forecast for next week, in fact they may be making the forecast worse by inflating the odds of a ridge when the superior EPS has already dropped the ridge odds down to 20% or less.
I’m not as confident as you w/rt the downstream/PNW ridge, but agree the GFS solution near/south of the Aleutians is BS. That’s a classic GFS failure mode (phasing/deepening ULLs).
The operational CMC shows how a big western ridge could legitimately happen. Very different than the GFS over the NPAC.
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Posted by Brian_in_Leavenworth,
IOS Link:https://apps.apple.com/us/app/mping/id584383400 Android: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=edu.ou.cimms.mping&hl=en_US&gl=US&pli=1
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