snow_wizard Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 7 hours ago, Phil said: Itâs early enough that things can change, but this isnât the sort of VP signature youâd expect from a decaying La Niña. Quite the opposite, in fact. Maybe we go the 2000/01-2002/03 route, and the transition to El Niño is a long, slow process? Based on the solar cycle/IPWP relationship, you wouldnât expect the next IPWP extension for another ~ 2 years at least, so that may also argue for a slower and/or dampened transition into +ENSO & associated WP extension. It would be something else if this Nina went another season. I have to say there is no clear indication it's going to end soon. 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Where are you in relation to Portland? Just west of the West Hills. We get an enhanced east wind downsloping off of them. Makes for some very fun snowstorms! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 5 minutes ago, Doinko said: Just west of the West Hills. We get an enhanced east wind downsloping off of them. Makes for some very fun snowstorms! That area the ECMWF only shows near 40 for gusts. Beware it isn't perfect though. For some reason the model doesn't do well for North Bend up this way. It is often low with that location. For my area it usually does very well. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 48 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: This forum is a straight up ghost town.  18 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Eye of the storm. I think I saw as little as 10 registered members on last night or the night before for the 0z run. Probably the fewest Iâve seen in a while but it does have that feel calm before the storm kinda feel. Nothing worthy to track in the meantime. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 That storm is just tearing it up over the NE Pacific right now. The ECMWF shows this is basically a cat 1 hurricane for winds. wxloop ir4km 12 (washington.edu) 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 4, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 57 minutes ago, Doinko said: What does the Euro show for here? The WRF-GFS is showing 50mph+ gusts for my location. I'd take the EURO predictions for the metro with a grain of salt-- usually underdoes gusts by a fair margin. In September 2020 for example-- model output was at face value for gusts in the mid to low 30s for PDX. We know what actually panned out... 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 12Z ECMWF brings back the 60-burgers but the 18Z takes them away again. Both, however, are on the torchy side. Â Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 If you donât want it to torch hard on Friday, the latest Goofus is your friend. But then youâre friends with Goofus. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 42F out there with the occasional shower. My wife had to wake me up from an epileptic episode when she got home from work. Not sure how long I was out for. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25â Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4  Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 Currently 27F outside. A bit cool. Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingstonWX Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 My temp says 32 and precip is moving in. I'm confused. I wonder if I'm in a cold pocket, or if my station is acting up again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 15 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: If you donât want it to torch hard on Friday, the latest Goofus is your friend. But then youâre friends with Goofus. Gfs seems to bring more moisture in. Seems pretty torchy later next week though. Either way the torch is going to happen at some point in the next 10 days. 1 Quote Snowfall                 Precip 2022-23: 95.0"           2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6"          2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0"          2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5"          2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5"          2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3"          2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2"          2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75"         2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75"         2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75"         2012-13: 78.45  2011-12: 98.5"          2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil.  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 Wet  1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Wet  Praise Allah. 1 Quote Snowfall                 Precip 2022-23: 95.0"           2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6"          2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0"          2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5"          2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5"          2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3"          2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2"          2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75"         2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75"         2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75"         2012-13: 78.45  2011-12: 98.5"          2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil.  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 Is this going to be a bad thing for this year's Napa crop? This much of a shock to them? Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25â Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4  Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 I've never seen this much rain modeled in a 384 hr map for the Bay Area 5 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25â Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4  Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christensen87 Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 The amount of rain shown on the GFS the next week for the Bay Area is insane. This could cause many problems.  18z CFS sucks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Is this going to be a bad thing for this year's Napa crop? This much of a shock to them? I doubt it will affect many vineyards much. The vines are dormant this time of year. Biggest threat would be flood damage to the lower-lying vineyards. Â 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: I've never seen this much rain modeled in a 384 hr map for the Bay Area I lived in the Bay Area briefly. The purple zones tend to be high-rainfall areas as it is. If you go there, you see mostly redwood forests, and big trees donât grow on sunshine alone. And the storms in California tend to feature harder, heavier rain than our storms do (probably as a result of the warmer temperatures). Those purple areas get storms that dump 3â5" in one event most years, sometimes multiple such storms per season. Still a lot of rain. There will be flooding and landslides. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 The San Francisco treat! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferencesâ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 23 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: I've never seen this much rain modeled in a 384 hr map for the Bay Area What a blessing that would be for them. 1 1 Quote Snowfall                 Precip 2022-23: 95.0"           2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6"          2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0"          2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5"          2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5"          2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3"          2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2"          2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75"         2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75"         2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75"         2012-13: 78.45  2011-12: 98.5"          2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil.  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 39 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: I've never seen this much rain modeled in a 384 hr map for the Bay Area I don't know what to think anymore. Models have gone crazy. I hope I can avoid property damage. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 At least we will get some stronger systems. Curious how it evolves from here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 5 minutes ago, AlTahoe said: I don't know what to think anymore. Models have gone crazy. I hope I can avoid property damage. Will this be all rain for the Tahoe area? Rain or snow, it's a problem. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 Ways to go. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 12 minutes ago, AlTahoe said: I don't know what to think anymore. Models have gone crazy. I hope I can avoid property damage. It definitely could be bad, but keep in mind people are posting 300+ hour maps. Not only highly inaccurate, but that's precip spread over a 2 week period. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 minute ago, Front Ranger said: Ways to go. I mean, there first serious system hasn't even started yet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferencesâ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 Â Â 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 Feels so weird to see all those systems head towards CA, it's been quite down there for so long. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 59 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: I've never seen this much rain modeled in a 384 hr map for the Bay Area "California needs some rain" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 With positive height trends like this over the Northeast Pacific, we might start to an interesting development. ïżŒ 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: It definitely could be bad, but keep in mind people are posting 300+ hour maps. Not only highly inaccurate, but that's precip spread over a 2 week period. That being said, both the GFS and CMC definitely juiced things up over the next 7 days. This would be apocalyptic, especially after all the rain that comes before. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 21 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: I mean, there first serious system hasn't even started yet. If anything Iâd say they already startedâŠ. 3 days ago and that barely put a dent in the drought situation down there. But whatâs being forecast is some serious drought busting rain.   4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post smerfylicious Posted January 4, 2023 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 Spent the day in Brian's neck of the woods. Gorgeous out in Leavenworth currently and the drive down Tumwater canyon is just...special when there's feet of snow along the Wenatchee River. I'd live there in a heartbeat if I could 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 17 minutes ago, smerfylicious said: Spent the day in Brian's neck of the woods. Gorgeous out in Leavenworth currently and the drive down Tumwater canyon is just...special when there's feet of snow along the Wenatchee River. I'd live there in a heartbeat if I could No doubt. Either Cle Elum, somewhere around Leavenworth, Winthrop. Many good possibilities over there. The town of Leavenworth itself though would be awfully touristy. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 41 minutes ago, Cloud said: If anything Iâd say they already startedâŠ. 3 days ago and that barely put a dent in the drought situation down there. But whatâs being forecast is some serious drought busting rain.   A lot of 19th century action in that list. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 Nice improvement on the GEFS tonight. Lower PNA, lower 850s, and a stronger GOA ridge signal. The final part of this month is very much in play. 5 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: Nice improvement on the GEFS tonight. Lower PNA, lower 850s, and a stronger GOA ridge signal. The final part of this month is very much in play. Agreed! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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