Really, really lovely cumulonimbus action tonight! I just happened to have my drone in the car and got some solid shots of DT Seattle/Lake Washington/Mercer Island/Bellevue looking north from Skyway. Alas, the focal length of the lens doesn't do the vertical height justice and my WB was off rendering it into semi-gross HDR territory, but still... fun looking weather! It was quite windy- I was flying right at 390 ft and the drone was giving me all sorts of warnings about sustained winds/gusts.
A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm at 11 1/2" now! UNBELIEVABLE!!!! This pic does no justice at all.
NBM is quite an interesting product! Their weighting algorithm is moderately complex and dynamic, though does has some drawbacks as we saw yesterday. For those who don't know, NBM is an attempt by NOAA to create a super probabilistic forecast model that ingests output from all the models above and outputs forecast guidance for local offices that help them to gauge the relative odds of particular weather outcomes. The 'special sauce' is the post-processing, normalization and weighting that they d
Nice to see models converging on an end to this thing. Could be as early as Monday... Today's Euro has a stout marine layer all through that afternoon, and there's now a decent chance heights don't recover in the days after that.
Given the way this Spring has gone, I'd say there are good odds the trough at D8-10 really happens, or perhaps even gets pushed forward in timing.
Someone on the Canadian forum posted the spaghetti charts for YVR this morning and the only clear signal I see is for a round of torching starting Friday and lasting until about the 13th. Beyond then, no strong signals. Goofus operational has a second hump but that is not reflected in the ensemble mean.
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