October 2019 Observations and Discussion

[OKwx2k4]

Anyone want to see something awesome. Check out the various models out near Amarillo into western Oklahoma for tomorrow. Wow! Awesome!

[jaster220]

Halloween night looks like a cold one w lows near 30F. BRRRRRR!

 

I remember evening temps of 35F in Flint Halloween 1989, not morning lows. Kids froze as there was also a stiff wind to go along with the chill. 

 

 

Drool-worth words not seen around here in a long time..

 

Looking ahead a developing mid to upper level wave is shown to

lift out of the eastern TX to LA area into Srn MI Saturday

afternoon into Saturday night. This system will be bringing up

abundant Gulf moisture with it so a rather wet period is expected.

Elevated instability reaches the MI/IN border so we will keep the

thunder risk south of the CWA. The GFS is faster with this wave

compared to the High Res Euro but both models support the rain

moving in Saturday afternoon as an overrunning pattern sets up

well ahead of the system.

 

NAM's really bringing it north too. Quite the slug of qpf indicated. Hope we aren't burning all these great scenarios "just" outside of winter temps. That'd be a kick! 

[Niko]

I remember evening temps of 35F in Flint Halloween 1989, not morning lows. Kids froze as there was also a stiff wind to go along with the chill. 

 

 

Drool-worth words not seen around here in a long time..

 

Looking ahead a developing mid to upper level wave is shown to

lift out of the eastern TX to LA area into Srn MI Saturday

afternoon into Saturday night. This system will be bringing up

abundant Gulf moisture with it so a rather wet period is expected.

Elevated instability reaches the MI/IN border so we will keep the

thunder risk south of the CWA. The GFS is faster with this wave

compared to the High Res Euro but both models support the rain

moving in Saturday afternoon as an overrunning pattern sets up

well ahead of the system.

 

NAM's really bringing it north too. Quite the slug of qpf indicated. Hope we aren't burning all these great scenarios "just" outside of winter temps. That'd be a kick! 

Tbh, I rather have potent storms in the latter part of November than now. Lets save the good stuff for later amigo.

[jaster220]

NAM pops a sub-1000mb SLP in SWMI Sat night (west of where I'd want this in winter, but just the display for a new LRC is a beaut)

 

[Niko]

Once the cold air settles in next week, its here to stay. Locked in!

[jaster220]

CPC's 8-14 day map is normally empty. Quite the opposite attm tho!

 

Confidence must be elevated. I like the (2) shown for SWMI as of today.

 

 

[Clinton]

ICON showing a biggie, a little SE compared to the Euro.

[Clinton]

Big time cold for late Oct behind this system.

[Niko]

Big time cold for late Oct behind this system.

There will be lots of record low temperatures broken.

[Niko]

The weekend system looks potent. Gotta like the track its taking ( coming from the south) excellent for Winter snows. Had this been later in the season, would have been quite snowy here.

[Grizzcoat]

Do you have a link to the Mn. climate site? I like looking at climate history, if I have time.

 

The IEM has tons of archived data, but I don’t know how that compares to the site you’re talking about.

http://climateapps.dnr.state.mn.us/index.htm

[Hawkeye]

The UK is on the side of the Euro/ICON/CMC.  It has a sharp trough with decent snow on the cold side of the front.

 

[GDR]

[Grizzcoat]

The UK is on the side of the Euro/ICON/CMC.  It has a sharp trough with decent snow on the cold side of the front.

 

UK_00z_1024.png

No need to get into specifics at this time frame but  DMX seems to be throwing out the operational GFS;

(for the morning AFD)

"The EC and the GFS differ in the handling of the solutions regarding

the way the pieces of energy within the broad upper level trough

translate through the region, however the GFS ensemble mean trend

toward the EC solution as well as NBM guidance.

[Tom]

Gosh, where shall we begin???  Holy smokes, there is so much action that is taking place (and about to) across our Sub Forum that its hard not to get a bit giddy.  The models continue to paint a nearly ideal 500mb pattern throughout the extended period and the latest JMA Weeklies are holding stead fast.   Let me dive right in....

 

The model certainly wants to park a long wave, long term Ridge in the NE PAC and along the FL & SE Coastline.  While  it has somewhat increased the strength of the SER for Weeks 2-4, the model has locked the NE PAC/NW NAMER ridge throughout the extended.  Actually, as I analyze the model run farther, it's more of a NE PAC ridge that allows more troughs to slide down into the Inter-Mountain West allowing for "inside runners".  This was one of my pre-season ideas as I was interested to see where this "mean" ridge would develop and it looks like it will set up shop just offshore of the coast of N.A., hence the reason for the waters cooling along the western shores of N.A.

 

Current state of SST's....

 

 

 

 

Week 2 Temp/Precip...the model is seeing some early season Arctic Air lurking just across the Canadian border...

 

 

 

 

Week 3-4 Temp/Precip....Western Canada continues to flood with Arctic cold and this is likely to bleed into the lower 48...notice the warmth just off the west coast.  This pattern is really a beautiful feat for our members farther west bc if that ridge was farther east, storms would develop farther east.  These maps are eye candy.

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

The system coming together in the deep south has some interesting features...the first being, a cold ULL tracking across TX into OK and the 2nd feature is the Tropical influence coming out of the GOM (just east of Mexico) that feeds copious moisture into the system.  

 

 

 

[Stormy]

http://climateapps.dnr.state.mn.us/index.htm

Thank you!

[westMJim]

Good morning. Of note on the video on long and short waves. The H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 56/43. Here at my house I recorded 0.10” of rain fall. The current temperature here at my house is 42 after a low of 41. For today the average H/L is now down to 57/39. The record high is 80 set in 1963 and the record low is 24 set in 1969. Last year the H/L was 50/29.

[St Paul Storm]

This potential storm is 5-6 days away and now the GFS is the only global not showing some type of storm. If a shiny new upgrade of a major global model can’t detect a storm at this range, that’s a problem. It was the last one to figure out the Dakotas blizzard a few weeks ago too. I see a trend this winter....

[Grizzcoat]

This potential storm is 5-6 days away and now the GFS is the only global not showing some type of storm. If a shiny new upgrade of a major global model can’t detect a storm at this range, that’s a problem. It was the last one to figure out the Dakotas blizzard a few weeks ago too. I see a trend this winter....

Yep- and they stopped running the old GFS OCT 1st. As was previously  mentioned just a few weeks ago on here- the new GFS is the FV3 from last year- and we all know how that worked out.

[james1976]

That's a wide snow shield on the Euro. Looks like it's still showing the double barrel system. I like how the Icon is looking too. I almost forgot about that model.

[GDR]

So as of right now it’s the Canadian and icon vs the euro vs gfs

[East Dubzz]

NWS has 38 for a high next Wednesday, sounds fantastic to me. Warmth had been our enemy last winter, January until it really took hold it seemed. I know on New Years I was sweating walking the trials.

 

Winter definitely took a long time to get going last year, but it did get pretty nasty once it kicked in.

[East Dubzz]

I am not expecting anything from this, but it is awesome to see those kind of snow totals showing up in the models already for this area. Hope someone around here gets hit and not someone way up north!!

[Niko]

Its a sunny, crisp, chilly morning w temps at 43F.

[gabel23]

DC4268C6-6B3C-42EE-A30F-D0B40FD97CA1.jpeg

Can you zoom this out when you get a chance? Thanks!

[Niko]

GFS vs European for Halloween nite. GFS saids huh?......, while Euro screaming rain to snow and wind for my area w temps in the upper 20s.

[Clinton]

Can you zoom this out when you get a chance? Thanks!

Here ya go.

[james1976]

That 2nd Low looks stronger on that Euro run

[Stormhunter87]

Just slightly north for the heavy stuff based on the euro. Looks like oax is watching it but they are favoring warm air to warp in and keep the totals limited.

[Niko]

 Some trees are now bare. There are a some w colors, but not for long.

[Clinton]

That 2nd Low looks stronger on that Euro run

It is and it lays a nice swath of snow right over me.  If only it was 24 hours out 

[Iowawx]

When exactly does that snow on the Euro happen in Eastern Iowa? Is it sometime next week?

[Clinton]

When exactly does that snow on the Euro happen in Eastern Iowa? Is it sometime next week?

Early Tuesday.

[Hawkeye]

When exactly does that snow on the Euro happen in Eastern Iowa? Is it sometime next week?

 

The first low (snow over nw Iowa) is Tuesday.  The big low that dumps on eastern Iowa is Thursday.

[gabel23]

Good to see Gary this morning talking on his blog. Love hearing him say that there appears to be an anchor trough forming in the middle of the country!!! That would bode well for everyone east of the rockies. 

[Tom]

Good to see Gary this morning talking on his blog. Love hearing him say that there appears to be an anchor trough forming in the middle of the country!!! That would bode well for everyone east of the rockies.

I just read his blog and concurs with what I’ve been seeing thus far. #centralconusshow

[Hawkeye]

Wow, the 12z ICON has a powerful blizzard wrapped up over Iowa on Halloween!  That would be amazing.

[OKwx2k4]

Geez, how much more good news could a guy find in one morning? Hello Euro. I see you.

[Tom]

12z ICON...Lovely...Bombs away!!!!  The model is "seeing" the secondary piece as the main show which I alluded to yesterday.  Nice eye candy...