November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Esquimalt]

12Z gfs has a decent snow event here and pugrt sound in 10 days

[Blizzard777]

42* 

.01 in the bucket

a little weak southern sympathy CZ brushing me

[Prairiedog]

Our daughter is trying to get home from U of Wyoming in Laramie for TD.  She was going to drive from Laramie to Denver Wednesday and then fly out.  Winter storm warnings now posted for there and Denver for 6-15", high winds and white out conditions starting later today.  They've closed the college for a couple days.  We told her if there was any way, get out of town early today if she wanted any chance to get home.  She found a ride to Denver with a friend and left this am.

When they close the U of Wy it's gonna be a good one.   

[luvssnow_spokane]

12Z gfs has a decent snow event here and pugrt sound in 10 days

Yep.... lala-land eye candy. 

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Looks like there is hope for some (possible) precip. and mountain snow in our future, at least for Jesse and our southern friends in the more near term, and some for the puget sounders later on.  . #Keepingthehopealivein2019

 

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12z HRDPS, going to be insane down south just as the sun starts to set tomorrow. Gonna to be a crazy night!

 

[Esquimalt]

Well 12Z ensembles are looking quite a bit better.  Nothing crazy cold yet but identifying that we have good chances of seeing a few flakes on December 1st, 2nd, just as the operational suggested,  

[TacomaWaWx]

Well 12Z ensembles are looking quite a bit better. Nothing crazy cold yet but identifying that we have good chances of seeing a few flakes on December 1st, 2nd, just as the operational suggested,

Main takeaway is it looks like a active cool weather pattern is going to continue for the foreseeable future. Few small tweaks and things could be interesting.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Main takeaway is it looks like a active cool weather pattern is going to continue for the foreseeable future. Few small tweaks and things could be interesting.

I hope the GFS verifies, but I have my doubts.  It is a big change from earlier runs, and way different than other models.  So to me it looks like an outlier, but hopefully it is picking up on a real trend before the other models.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Dang the GFS has it all. Even a nice warm wet system with falling snow levels in its wake at the end. 

[Blizzard777]

Our daughter is trying to get home from U of Wyoming in Laramie for TD.  She was going to drive from Laramie to Denver Wednesday and then fly out.  Winter storm warnings now posted for there and Denver for 6-15", high winds and white out conditions starting later today.  They've closed the college for a couple days.  We told her if there was any way, get out of town early today if she wanted any chance to get home.  She found a ride to Denver with a friend and left this am.

When they close the U of Wy it's gonna be a good one.   

By chance did her friend look like this?

 

hope she has a safe trip and love the web cam you posted!

[Omegaraptor]

I hope the GFS verifies, but I have my doubts.  It is a big change from earlier runs, and way different than other models.  So to me it looks like an outlier, but hopefully it is picking up on a real trend before the other models.

GFS has been leading the way for a while now.

[TacomaWaWx]

I hope the GFS verifies, but I have my doubts. It is a big change from earlier runs, and way different than other models. So to me it looks like an outlier, but hopefully it is picking up on a real trend before the other models.

Yeah not a lot of model consistency at the moment. Like omega and others have been saying the gfs has been doing pretty well lately. Overall the next 7 days look pretty interesting and more conclusive but week 2 is still fairly uncertain.

[Guest CulverJosh]

I can rent out a room for tomorrow over here if anyone is interested .  I will provide the beer.

[jakerepp]

Our daughter is trying to get home from U of Wyoming in Laramie for TD.  She was going to drive from Laramie to Denver Wednesday and then fly out.  Winter storm warnings now posted for there and Denver for 6-15", high winds and white out conditions starting later today.  They've closed the college for a couple days.  We told her if there was any way, get out of town early today if she wanted any chance to get home.  She found a ride to Denver with a friend and left this am.

When they close the U of Wy it's gonna be a good one.   

 

Man, I'm gonna keep checking this webcam throughout the day. I can live vicariously through those I see trudging along in the snow. 

I need to move to a snowier climate. 

[stuffradio]

What is the EPS saying? Has anyone checked out the CANSIPS?

CANSIPS won't be updated until Nov 30/Dec 1.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

NWS forecast mentions "a slight chance of snow" for me on Sunday.

[Omegaraptor]

NWS 3 month outlook, looks like this winter will probably be cold and dry 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF for tomorrow afternoon...

 

[Front Ranger]

Cold rain and 36 degrees this morning down on the North Umpqua. Really wouldn’t be too surprised to see things change over to wet snow at some point tonight. We are close to 1,000’ asl here.

 

My parents are around 750' just outside of Myrtle Creek. They are planning on driving up to my brother's place in Salem tomorrow evening...could be an interesting drive.

[joaqweri]

already hearing reports of rain/snow mix up around northern whatcom county in western wa around the border. anybody able to confirm this?

[Guest CulverJosh]

already hearing reports of rain/snow mix up around northern whatcom county in western wa around the border. anybody able to confirm this?

 

Looks like most sites are in the low 40s up there.  Maybe with a little elevation.

[Front Ranger]

I can rent out a room for tomorrow over here if anyone is interested .  I will provide the beer.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Where is ROB

[Front Ranger]

It does look like the ensembles are mostly advertising a return to some sort of ridging over the west coast in the long range. 

 

However, it's currently a very weak signal, clearly a ton of spread.

[Guest CulverJosh]

freecandy.jpg

Looks like my dad's van.

[Deweydog]

Welcome new people from Seattle! Sign up and join in the conversation

Are you gonna clue them in on your winter cancel-related insider info?

[Jbolin]

already hearing reports of rain/snow mix up around northern whatcom county in western wa around the border. anybody able to confirm this?

This was posted via Twitter

 

Snow above the Glenhaven neighborhood near South Lake Whatcom 

[TacomaWaWx]

Welcome new people from Seattle! Sign up and join in the conversation

we need more than like 30-40 regular posters on here!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z was a bit of an outlier, but was sure nice to see. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

It does look like the ensembles are mostly advertising a return to some sort of ridging over the west coast in the long range. 

 

However, it's currently a very weak signal, clearly a ton of spread.

A fairly strong signal in the Canadian ensembles for more boring weather.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A fairly strong signal in the Canadian ensembles for more boring weather.

 

Okay I am going to just cling to the 12z GFS.

[Front Ranger]

A fairly strong signal in the Canadian ensembles for more boring weather.

 

Hmm, definitely not that strong with the most recent EPS and GEFS.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Hmm, definitely not that strong with the most recent EPS and GEFS.

Hopefully it is an outlier.  And maybe the 12Z GFS is picking up on something that the Canadian has not yet.  

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows precip moving north early Sunday morning...

 

 

[TT-SEA]

24-hour snow ending 4 p.m. Sunday...

 

[ShawniganLake]

Overrunning snow event next Sunday for Northern areas, SW BC.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Some of that might be snow for South Puget Sound and Whatcom County/BC

[El_Nina]

A fairly strong signal in the Canadian ensembles for more boring weather.

Nope guys this is what we will be seeing on December 8. I've been here long enough to know that ridging in the long range will happen if there's a signal like this on it for one model while the others are suggesting it/confused. It will become more clear in future runs just wait.

[TacomaWaWx]

Wouldn’t mind seeing a little overrunning event. Still 6-7 days out though lots can happen in between now and then.