Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Deweydog]

FWIW, the 12z EPS has the trough centered a fair amount closer to the coast on Thursday.

 

Might be an indication we see the operational trend to move that low a little closer and help increase precip amounts. We will see.

 

That looks extremely similar to the operational for six days out.

[Deweydog]

I realize I'm splitting hairs here, especially considering it's a mean, but it looks a little better in my eyes.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

On pass. Nasty..

[TT-SEA]

On pass. Nasty..

Makes it easier if you post here while driving!

[Deweydog]

On pass. Nasty..

Scofflaw!!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Makes it easier if you post here while driving!

Pulled over Timothy

[ShawniganLake]

Nam is trending northward sunday

[runninthruda206]

Nam is trending northward sunday

BOO! NAM can leave

[TacomaWaWx]

Some people on Twitter already labeling this a non event because the wrf shows no snow basically for Puget sound. Gonna be funny to see how these people react when this "non-event" ends up being more of an event than anticipated.

[TacomaWaWx]

If I remember correctly November 2010 ended up being snowier for the entire area than previously anticipated. My family wasn't even expecting to see much if any snow in that event and we ended up with 4" here.

[weather_fan]

You guys seem to be so excited about a long cold stretch with temps in teens and all in SEA area. But, my weather app/ cellphone doesnt say anything like that. Whats happening exactly?

[Timmy]

You guys seem to be so excited about a long cold stretch with temps in teens and all in SEA area. But, my weather app/ cellphone doesnt say anything like that. Whats happening exactly?

this is gold....

[TT-SEA]

Signs of retrogression on the 12Z EPS near the end of the run.   It is there... but I am also required by forum law to say that in regard to every EPS run.   Historical cold definitely ahead for February!!

 

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

KGW still thinking PDX says frozen Tues-Thu but has it warming up to 40 on Friday.

 

[Chewbacca Defense]

It indeed looks favorable for me, but I’m trying not to count my chickens before they hatch. It’s never too late for a rug-pull

The dynamics up here can be maddening at times. About 1/2 the time on the arctic events the moisture gets scoured out before it gets  cold enough, I am hoping the fact that we already have “very chilly” air in place we won’t run into that this Sunday.  

 

The other crazy feature is how the moisture behaves when we do have it.  About 2-3 years ago Bellingham did alright, maybe 3-4”, but north of...I think it was the Smith Rd...it was completely different...2-3x more snow, blizzard conditions, tons of trees/branches down, etc.  Sumas got cut off for a period of time (they had to bring the big snowblower from Baker down to get through some of the drifts).

 

A buddy who is a State Trooper was telling me about it but I really could not wrap my head around it (especially the sharp cutoff) until  I took my 16-17 year old son out for winter driving practice. 

 

My goal assuming we stay in the area is to move up into the north county in the next couple of years.

[OysterPrintout]

I too also am interested in what exactly is happening

[wxmet]

NAM 18z still shows a nice c-zone developing for the central and southern Puget Sound.

[runninthruda206]

Some people on Twitter already labeling this a non event because the wrf shows no snow basically for Puget sound. Gonna be funny to see how these people react when this "non-event" ends up being more of an event than anticipated.

Lol! For real. Every other model has a c zone developing central sound. Not sure why it doesn’t show anything. Is the WRF usually pretty accurate?

[TT-SEA]

KGW still thinking PDX says frozen Tues-Thu but has it warming up to 40 on Friday.

 

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Rain snow mix atm, taking it as good sign for sunday

[TacomaWaWx]

Lol! For real. Every other model has a c zone developing central sound. Not sure why it doesn’t show anything. Is the WRF usually pretty accurate?

In the 24-48hr range I've seen it do pretty good.

[HighlandExperience]

Some people on Twitter already labeling this a non event because the wrf shows no snow basically for Puget sound. Gonna be funny to see how these people react when this "non-event" ends up being more of an event than anticipated.

WRF is a joke sometimes

[wxmet]

[weather_fan]

this is gold....

what do you mean?

[seattleweatherguy]

Komo says lack of moisture must be using WRF or claim too much east wind

[TigerWoodsLibido]

That’s gold Jerry...gold!!!

[OysterPrintout]

12z is actually markedly improved from 00z who woulda thunk 

[wxmet]

12z is actually markedly improved from 00z who woulda thunk 

Can you post Seattle?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

They must be leaning GFS at the moment.

[FroYoBro]

It was getting pretty breezy about an hour ago.

 

Actually seems like the wind has already slackened a bit. Just in time for the wind advisory to start!

[OysterPrintout]

Can you post Seattle?

 

I guess but if you like the sounders you aren't allowed to look at them

[BLI snowman]

NAM concurs on being pretty horrific with the Monday low for Portland. Anemic precip + anemic cold air advection leads to a non event below maybe 600'.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

what do you mean?

Rule 1, 2 and 3. During a time when cold and snow are possible, never ever ever ever ever use a weather app. During times when the weather is benign, sure. Posted by Mark Nelsen a week ago, and applies today, though the part about cold for 2 weeks may not.

 

[North_County]

The dynamics up here can be maddening at times. About 1/2 the time on the arctic events the moisture gets scoured out before it gets cold enough, I am hoping the fact that we already have “very chilly” air in place we won’t run into that this Sunday.

 

The other crazy feature is how the moisture behaves when we do have it. About 2-3 years ago Bellingham did alright, maybe 3-4”, but north of...I think it was the Smith Rd...it was completely different...2-3x more snow, blizzard conditions, tons of trees/branches down, etc. Sumas got cut off for a period of time (they had to bring the big snowblower from Baker down to get through some of the drifts).

 

A buddy who is a State Trooper was telling me about it but I really could not wrap my head around it (especially the sharp cutoff) until I took my 16-17 year old son out for winter driving practice.

 

My goal assuming we stay in the area is to move up into the north county in the next couple of years.

That was February 2017, I believe. The cold air just hung out along the border for like a full month after a slow bleed out of the Fraser. I had around 3 feet of snow before it started drifting, and Hwy 9 was shut down about 2 miles south of Sumas. Deep drifts stretched to about Lynden. And in Bellingham.....next to nothing. That was the best winter for north Whatcom since I moved back here in 2011, in terms of depth and length of cold/snow. January had far less snow, but we were in an icebox for pretty much the entire month.

[Omegaraptor]

12z is actually markedly improved from 00z who woulda thunk 

 

Member 51 is cruel

[jakerepp]

I guess but if you like the sounders you aren't allowed to look at them

Hmm someone is bitter 

[TT-SEA]

They must be leaning GFS at the moment.

 

 

Leaning on GFS surface temp output is just plain stupid.

[HighlandExperience]

18z 3km NAM also picking up on the CZ signature in the Central Sound.

 

It only goes out through 10PM Sunday...

Looks good for eastern King County.

[seattleweatherguy]

Looks good for eastern King County.

Nice hopefully bothell gets nailed

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Signs of retrogression on the 12Z EPS near the end of the run.   It is there... but I am also required by forum law to say that in regard to every EPS run.   Historical cold definitely ahead for February!!

 

 

 

I will be in Oklahoma then. Looks like when it is warming up here it will be cooling down there.