January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Dave]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

If Shawshank is, which it’s ALWAYS on, I ALWAYS end up watching it.

My favorite movie of all time. There are no titties either. Shows how high quality it was.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Gut punch of a run  Saw the weakening trend with the block, was waiting for a run like this.

If we want it to reverse, we'd want to see better runs beginning tomorrow.

I said a few days ago the GFS will shorten your lifespan if you let it. We give it way too much airtime on this forum.

[Jbolin]

LMAO

[Mid Valley Duck]

Genuinely hilarious GFS run. 180 difference from prior runs.

[High Desert Mat?]

Just now, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

00Z IS TRAAASHHH, ITS STILL GONNA HAPPEN!

For people like us. It won’t be as cold and won’t be as much snow. But think about those po’ folks in the valley and away from the gorge. 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Requiem said:

I definitely think any event out of this is less likely to happen now, but I also don't buy that low pressure area bombing out that drastically when it has so little support from any other model. That pretty much singlehandedly screwed up this current run, anyhow...

I’m thinking the 00z euro in about 2 hours will change the entire mood on the forum. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

This happened Dec 2008, and well, we know how that turned out.......

I need Matt to verify this.   Photographic memory and all.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Day 3 (4-run trend)

[Phishy Wx]

11 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

You guys seriously just going to ignore the GEM like that? 

so the GEM and GFS switched places?

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 minute ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Hate being right all the time. I feel like Phil. 

Being right is the opposite of being Phil. All Phil's good at is getting covid at high altitudes and saying a bunch of letters that supposedly make him smart.

[Doinko]

GEM shows a snowstorm for Western WA. No cold air makes it really to OR but it's not a terrible run

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF won't change that much.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Worth noting ECMWF does not show that low blowing up on Tuesday.

Yeah, because it won’t blow up like that. Stupid solution.

[High Desert Mat?]

Dam SSW’s. Sometimes they work. Sometimes they don’t. I really feel like it’ll come around some tomorrow. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The GEM slams SW WA to N CA with a massive AR late next week. 

Edited January 6 by SilverFallsAndrew

[SeanNyberg]

I'm not delusional, that was terrible. But, let's wait for the ensembles.

Seattle is 6 to 10 degrees colder throughout Saturday. But I do think the ensemble will be improved.

[Kolk1604]

GEM looks like the Euro... in a way 

[Doinko]

Massive Seattle snowstorm!

 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

2 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

For people like us. It won’t be as cold and won’t be as much snow. But think about those po’ folks in the valley and away from the gorge. 

They'll still get the goods. Gut feeling, just wait till the euro.

[BLI snowman]

Canadian smells more like December 1996.

Literally every scenario is still on the table with this.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Being right is the opposite of being Phil. All Phil's good at is getting covid at high altitudes and saying a bunch of letters that supposedly make him smart.

Who says I’m smart? Certainly not me.  

[Mid Valley Duck]

Just now, Phil said:

I said a few days ago the GFS will shorten your lifespan if you let it. We give it way too much airtime on this forum.

You think this is just the GFS being the GFS?

[Gradient Keeper]

No support to drive that arctic air south on the GEM.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

So, trying to stay optimistic, what was your favorite missed forecast--no or little snow predicted and we got hit by it? 

 

One of my favorites was in Jan 2012 I think. Maybe MLK Day? It had snowed some and King5 had Jeff Renner in that morning to do special reports. He was telling everyone that the warm air was headed in and the snow was going to change to rain soon. BUT, he was only partly right. It did, hours after his forecast, but changed to freezing rain that went on for hours. I'm pretty sure the rain stopped before we warmed up despite Jeff's best reassurances. That was kind of fun for the kids, especially because we didn't lose power and bought a new chain saw the next day. Always fun to get new tools!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The GEM is actually solid for W WA and much closer than the GFS to being regionally fantastic. It would cause river flooding in W OR though. 

[Phil]

Just now, Mid Valley Duck said:

You think this is just the GFS being the GFS?

As far the phantom low is concerned? Absolutely.

Not sure if that has anything to with the overall solution crapping the bed, but so long as other guidance doesn’t do likewise, I wouldn’t worry about this GFS run.

[SeanNyberg]

Then again, this run DOES drop 2 feet of snow by Sunday for the central Puget Sound. D**n. (But don't look at snowfall maps SEAN!)

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Worth noting ECMWF does not show that low blowing up on Tuesday.

It is on some of the meso models though. This run is bad because of that low jumping north and 10mb stronger than the 18z. I totally expect the 06z to be fine. This is a bad run. 

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the GFS got its inevitable bad run in.  Of course the GEM is now the opposite of last night as well.  Wild ride!

[TT-SEA]

The last 3 runs of the GEM have been so wildly different it's comical.   I am sure it will continue to swing all over until it starts narrowing down to a consistent solution.   The fact that the GFS did something totally different now as well tells us this is a very complex evolution.   As Phil mentioned... tiny changes can have massive downstream impacts.     I would heavily lean towards ECMWF/EPS.   But the fact is almost anything is still possible.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This GFS run kills the entire big potential arctic outbreak across the lower 48. 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It is on some of the meso models though. This run is bad because of that low jumping north and 10mb stronger than the 18z. I totally expect the 06z to be fine. This is a bad run. 

No doubt that bombing low is what messes this up.  The 18z ECMWF showed no sign of that whatsoever.

[Requiem]

Fwiw GFS was steadfast about January 2020 the whole way until maybe a few days before... and we know how that turned out 

[Snowlova]

What does the GFS ensemble mean show though?

[AbbyJr]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

As far the phantom low is concerned? Absolutely.

Not sure if that has anything to with the overall solution crapping the bed, but so long as other guidance doesn’t do likewise, I wouldn’t worry about this GFS run.

The GEM has been the warm outlier between the Euro and GFS. Out of three, the Euro is statistically the best performing model. Not sure what the 00Z Euro will do tonight. If it holds strong, then I'm not worried.

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Canadian smells more like December 1996.

Literally every scenario is still on the table with this.

There honestly hasn't been any great model consistency with this yet. Sure, there was like one day where almost all the 12z runs looked good, but as soon as the GFS started looking good the GEM went south. The Euro was consistent for a few runs in a row. The other global models haven't offered much consistent agreement.

Usually when it's gonna happen, the models find more consistency by this point. Not perfect, but more.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wow the Canadian looks great for Western Washington in the snow department. 

[Cold Snap]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF won't change that much.

That’s how I feel too because it’s doesn’t have that storm blowing up like the GFS does. Plus the Euro normally tends to stick to its guns.

[Mercurial]

6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Massive Seattle snowstorm!

 

Yea I'll take this one pls.  GFS only gives me like 10" through the same period.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

No doubt that bombing low is what messes this up.  The 18z ECMWF showed no sign of that whatsoever.