January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Frontal Snowsquall]

5 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

dude... 

Basically what the King EURO was showing earlier.

[awright-31]

Did someone spike the maple syrup?

[Deweydog]

I think even Tiger would get a light frost if the Canadian came to fruition.

[SnowWillarrive]

This is feeling better than December 2021 and even February 2019. This might be up there with December 2008 in my life time. Maybe even better. 

[Meatyorologist]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Though if we’re being honest the CMC solution looks just as shroomed-out as the GFS.

Though at least the CMC loses it in the clown range..the GFS diverges inside 72hrs.  

It's always suspect when things devolve into a blocking bonanza beyond day five. But it's fun to imagine!

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Lol. GFS reloads the ridge at hr 220

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I'd wager we haven't seen that since Dec 1861.

Single digit highs

[lowlandsnow]

I wonder if ice would start to form on the Puget Sound if this plays out

[Phil]

Just now, SpaceRace22 said:

The GFS is better for long range pattern changes and far inferior for anything within 7 days. I will fight that point to the death. The GEM, Spire, and probably the Euro are 100% the correct ones here. I too would bet a lot of money on this if websites like that existed, lol

On what planet? Its skill scores crater into the event horizon past D7. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Deweydog said:

I think even Tiger would get a light frost if the Canadian came to fruition.

Any thoughts on the GFS and GEM?     

[snow_wizard]

Some serious bug eyes on that pattern. 

[SpaceRace22]

If anything even close to what the Canadian is showing ends up panning out, don't forget that the Spire had been showing -20 to -25C 850s all the way to Salem for days now. I am all in on that model if this actually happens.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, lowlandsnow said:

I wonder if ice would start to form on the Puget Sound if this plays out

I think in 2008 some places in gig harbor started to freeze. IF (big IF) this verified yeah the potential would be there. 

[GHweatherChris]

I just want 2 days of good snow, that's it, the GEM is effing horrible for people like me, pay attention to me, effing dumb,  blah blah

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said:

This is feeling better than December 2021 and even February 2019. This might be up there with December 2008 in my life time. Maybe even better. 

The cold in February 2019 went on for 6 weeks.    But if you are talking about coldest temp then definitely.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

I think in 2008 some places in gig harbor started to freeze. IF (big IF) this verified yeah the potential would be there. 

Boundary Bay froze in December 2021.

[SimplySmoothWX]

The GFS and Canadian really giving the Euro a lot of pressure rn lol

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

4 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

They did and they added the ICON

Looks like they also added the Euro weeklies for paid subscribers 

[GHweatherChris]

Need less cold, more snow, less cold is better.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Some serious bug eyes on that pattern. 

Different than its 12Z run though... but theme is insane blocking.  

[SpaceRace22]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

On what planet? Its skill scores crater into the event horizon past D7. 

Along with every other model past D7 as well. The point is that it craters less than most at that range, particularly with big pattern change events like this one.

[Perturbed Member]

So historic cold still on the table according to ICON and GEM. 

Feeling good that the 00z Euro will most likely confirm the GEM or a more realistic version of it and the GFS will either come to its senses 06z or sometime tomorrow. Willing to bet the UKMET will swing right back to the cold solution as well. 

Hopefully within striking distance of locking this event in with model consensus. 

It isn't scientific but I'd like to add that the ICON doesn't like to show snow down here half the time even when it actually does snow. Might be the stingiest model with snowfall. When the 00z ICON shows widespread snow here, something is usually up. 

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

00z GEM is not backing down at all!

I’m blinded!! 

[LowerGarfield]

Today I bought another sled (toboggan?), a car snow shovel, snow boots for myself and my son, but I was glad to find some thermal underwear for him since it's going to be so cold! Probably won't get to use the snow stuff much in my part of the state but at least it will help us stay warm. I thought about buying some ice melt, but I didn't use the bag last year at all after going through it a bunch in 2020 and 2021's seasons.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Along with every other model past D7 as well. The point is that it craters less than most at that range, particularly with big pattern change events like this one.

I kind of agree.  The GFS can often be the first to show something big.  Then it seems to lose it when it gets 5 or 6 days out.

[Hyperbolic Trendz]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

496dm thicknesses over the PDX IKEA.

You often refer to faulty teleconnections as the primary culprit in fall-apart modeled patterns. I’ve got a (at best) rudimentary understanding of what you’re referring to but I’d like to know more.  If you have a second, how would you explain that somewhat simplistically (beyond just upstream dynamics)?Thanks.  And what are you seeing in that regard currently?

[TT-SEA]

Also interesting... the 00Z GFS shows the same general pattern by day 10. 

 

[Phil]

As expected the CMC is a huge outlier from its own ensemble mean.

But the 00z GEFS nudged slightly towards the better solution too. Interesting model battle.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

12 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Hahaha

Looks like a little terrain bleed for the Eastside. Still amazing though.

[SpaceRace22]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I kind of agree.  The GFS can often be the first to show something big.  Then it seems to lose it when it gets 5 or 6 days out.

Seriously, it's a tale as old as time. Go back through old event threads and it's always the same pattern, lol. The GFS picks it up first, the Euro says hell no. Then the Euro comes on board, and around day 5 or 6 the GFS starts to say "oops nvm". Then within 4 days everybody finally comes into some semblance of agreement and we either complete the rug pull or get our event.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Also interesting... the 00Z GFS shows the same general pattern by day 10. 

 

Was not expecting that!

[GHweatherChris]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

As expected the CMC is a huge outlier from its own ensemble mean.

But the 00z GEFS nudged slightly towards the better solution too. Interesting model battle.

[TT-SEA]

The 00Z GEFS is almost identical to its operational run on Thursday... which should be a given on day 5.  

 

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Seriously, it's a tale as old as time. Go back through old event threads and it's always the same pattern, lol. The GFS picks it up first, the Euro says hell no. Then the Euro comes on board, and around day 5 or 6 the GFS starts to say "oops nvm". Then within 4 days everybody finally comes into some semblance of agreement and we either complete the rug pull or get our event.

Our memories are selective like that. We’re programmed to recognize patterns even if it means creating patterns where they don’t exist.

Verification scores don’t lie. The GFS is absolutely *not* better in the long range. It actually gets worse relative to other guidance.

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I kind of agree.  The GFS can often be the first to show something big.  Then it seems to lose it when it gets 5 or 6 days out.

That does seem to be what happens

[Mid Valley Duck]

Ukmet is still a no, in fact might be worse than the GFS at day 6.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

The 00Z GEFS is almost identical to its operational run on Thursday... which should be a given on day 5.  

 

The ensembles look juuust slightly better though. 

[Doinko]

6 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

So historic cold still on the table according to ICON and GEM. 

Feeling good that the 00z Euro will most likely confirm the GEM or a more realistic version of it and the GFS will either come to its senses 06z or sometime tomorrow. Willing to bet the UKMET will swing right back to the cold solution as well. 

Hopefully within striking distance of locking this event in with model consensus. 

It isn't scientific but I'd like to add that the ICON doesn't like to show snow down here half the time even when it actually does snow. Might be the stingiest model with snowfall. When the 00z ICON shows widespread snow here, something is usually up. 

Looks like the UKMET is sticking to the warmer solution, Hopefully the Euro follows the GEM. 18z ensembles were a lot better which is great

[Cold Snap]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

The 00Z GEFS is almost identical to its operational run on Thursday... which should be a given on day 5.  

 

Ridge looks slightly better on the GEFS.