January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It's also the type of set up that brings the biggest snowfalls to Seattle usually.

And they are always a close call

 

 

 

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I have a good feeling we will see some fun model riding the next few days again lol

Yes and yes!

[Timmy]

Ended up with 8” of snow here

[Phishy Wx]

Re: Tues/Wed system per NWS Spokane.  Bring it!

 

Tuesday through Wednesday night: A more robust storm systems 
moves into the region toward the middle of the week. Clouds will 
start to increase Tuesday and the first chances of snow start to 
move in Tuesday afternoon, though for the most those chances will 
be highest near the Cascades. However Tuesday evening into 
Wednesday model bring a couple quick-moving and sharp shortwave 
systems into the region. This is expected to bring at least two 
rounds of snow in the period between Tuesday evening and Wednesday
evening. And still another wave drops in from the north later 
Wednesday night. Models are still coming together on precise 
details, but some moderate to heavy snow accumulations are 
possible with this system. The overall flow favors the highest 
precipitation totals near the Cascade crest and around the Idaho 
Panhandle mountains and the typical shadow in the lee of the 
Cascades, which could keep snow totals lower. However ensembles do
show some modest precipitation potential over the east third of 
WA and the lower elevations of ID from the Palouse northward, with
probabilities of >=0.50 inch of liquid precipitation at around 
30-50%. With a conservative snow ratio of 10:1 that translates to 
over 4 inches of snow, but given the cold nature of the atmosphere
snow ratios would likely be closer to 13:1 or so. Also the ECMWF 
Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) is supporting this to be an 
anomalously snowy event. Things can easily change, but models have
started to show signs of converging on a solution that could 
cause some moderate impacts. This includes all mountain passes, 
the Palouse, Spokane/CdA area and areas northward just to name a 
few.

[Phishy Wx]

why not end a Anomalous arctic event with an anomalous snow event.  makes sense really

[DareDuck]

About 11” new in Bend today. Total this week up to 19”. Snowing moderately and currently -3. 

[Kayla]

Ended up with a -21F/-42F day in my backyard today. (Coldest day in my 7 years here and colder than Dec. 2022)

BZN was -20F/-45F. Bozeman MSU was -17F/-40F (broke daily record by 13 degrees). Good enough for a 53 degree departure on the day.

Pretty insane that the top two coldest days in Bozeman history (records go back to 1892) are now Dec. 2022 and Jan. 2024. Incredible record breaking and brutally cold day.

[MossMan]

14.5 Degrees currently.

 

[Olive1010]

Some sleet falling now

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Kayla said:

Ended up with a -21F/-42F day in my backyard today. ( Coldest day in my 7 years here and colder than Dec. 2022)

BZN was -20F/-45F. Bozeman MSU was -17F/-40F (broke daily record by 13 degrees). Good enough for a 53 degree departure on the day.

Pretty insane that the top two coldest days in Bozeman history (records go back to 1896) are now Dec. 2022 and Jan. 2024. Incredible recorded breaking and brutally cold day.

So I take it you are out doing some yard work, perhaps washing the car, etc…

[RentonHill]

@bainbridgekid

[Kayla]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

So I take it you are out doing some yard work, perhaps washing the car, etc…

Oh you know it, life really thrives at -45F!!

[antipex]

-5/-21 here today with bright sunshine. Should be another cold night.

[Rustysprocket]

Fizzling deformation band sagged south just enough to squeak out one more sleet slap in the face. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Down to 23F. Still a lil freezing rain.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

18.0˚F.

[ShawniganLake]

42 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Good enough for northern folks.

The Event is only about half over up north at that point.  Don’t want to be in the sweet spot this far out though. Lots will change. 

[ShawniganLake]

Don’t have time to read through all the pages from today.  What were the totals like around Portland.  Any big winners in the general area?  

[GHweatherChris]

Only got down to 19 this morning here, matching the low I had in December under a lesser airmass, LAME!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It's very strange Phil vanishes every time it gets cold or snowy here. 

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

Don’t have time to read through all the pages from today.  What were the totals like around Portland.  Any big winners in the general area?  

It has already been gone over ad nauseous, tighten the belt and start reading.................. just kidding, people will be with you shortly I am sure.

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It's very strange Phil vanishes every time it gets cold or snowy here. 

If he isn't here then it didn't actually happen and he can still think he's right!!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

Don’t have time to read through all the pages from today.  What were the totals like around Portland.  Any big winners in the general area?  

Lots of lovely sleet. Tiger scored over an inch (and counting!) of beautiful ice.

[bainbridgekid]

9 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

@bainbridgekid

48% show at least 2”

32% show at least 4”

24% show at least 6”.

Goes to show the big boom or bust potential with this thing. High chance of nothing but also a pretty legit shot at something pretty big.

 

[OysterPrintout]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It's very strange Phil vanishes every time it gets cold or snowy here. 

idk Phil seems like he's here for a lot of the meta big picture pattern discussion not necessarily 100 pages of us in the pdx metro reporting exactly what percentage of sleet/snow is occurring

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

The Event is only about half over up north at that point.  Don’t want to be in the sweet spot this far out though. Lots will change. 

Yeah I’m glad the models are not showing me getting buried yet…That did not work out at all for today’s system where at one point I was looking at over a foot of snow lol! Hopefully the Wednesday system drops south at least one more notch, if it does it would be a December 2022 redux for me! 

[FroYoBro]

Yep, I hear the pangs of sleet against my window once again. We have had tons of sleet over the last few years here. Strange. 

[DDDRWx]

17 minutes ago, DareDuck said:

About 11” new in Bend today. Total this week up to 19”. Snowing moderately and currently -3. 

Nice shovel job!  Hopefully you can keep adding to those berms for the foreseeable future!  

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

Yep, I hear the pangs of sleet against my window once again. We have had tons of sleet over the last few years here. Strange. 

Yeah, we had a lot of sleet in Feb 2021, Dec 2022 and now this event.

[GHweatherChris]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yeah I’m glad the models are not showing me getting buried yet…That did not work out at all for today’s system where at one point I was looking at over a foot of snow lol! Hopefully the Wednesday system drops south at least one more notch, if it does it would be a December 2022 redux for me! 

It's not your turn, Oregon went first, I will be second, then it's your turn.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z RGEM for Tuesday. Here she comes!

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, DDDRWx said:

Nice shovel job!  Hopefully you can keep adding to those berms for the foreseeable future!  

Nice snow mounds! I need to work on mine, hopefully I can perfect it on Wednesday! 

[Ken in Wood Village]

Looks like there is a merging of to air masses, wonder what will happen 🌨

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It's very strange Phil vanishes every time it gets cold or snowy here. 

He doesn't have any details to offer on local events... he is a big picture guy.    

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

If he isn't here then it didn't actually happen and he can still think he's right!!

Also true! 

[Perturbed Member]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Yeah, we had a lot of sleet in Feb 2021, Dec 2022 and now this event.

Really thought we'd do a lot better this time in terms of getting more snow than sleet but overall the models did very well with this when you consider just how marginal this setup was at the mid levels. Kind of a bummer because we were so close to being able to pull off a big snowstorm with incredible low level cold. 

Certainly a lot to be happy about though, I've got maybe 3 inches of snow/sleet mix, the temp is 14.7F and it looks beautiful outside during a winter that most of us were not too optimistic about to begin with. 

Now we get to enjoy several days of serious cold and this wintery landscape is going to look incredible the next few days, especially on Monday. 

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Those control members!

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

00z RGEM for Tuesday. Here she comes!

Well that would be a disaster.   

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z RGEM has an ice storm Tuesday evening for PDX/SEA and snow storm for BLI/YVR.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Well that would be a disaster.   

That's a regional suckfest all right.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Well that would be a disaster.   

Yeah not good for down here. The coating of ice on top of the compacted snow/sleet mix is going to take forever to thaw out. Especially for East Metro. Models are usually over aggressive too scouring out the low level cold air.