January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[DeepFriedEgg]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

We will probably get some sleet/freezing rain at the very least. The sleet reports down south make me think that could be in the cards this evening. 

I think it was briefly sleet then quickly switched to ZR except for far east metro.

[TacomaWx]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I have posted literally everything with this upcoming event.   Lots of snowy runs.   If you don't want to see the data then close your eyes and scroll by it.   That is a very valid map in terms of analyzing this situation.    Thanks for input though!   I am not ever going to be someone that doesn't look at the entire picture.  It is what it is.   That low position is awesome for northern folks.   Just because it might be bad news for you doesn't mean some people don't want to see it.

I think people just assume you’re always trolling. Sometimes you definitely are but I’ve been here long enough to tell the difference. Most of the time you’re just describing what the models show and trying to figure out what Will realistically happen. It may be off putting to some people but I overall appreciate the analysis. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

If you showed me that i would swear it would go south but a chunk of energy strengthens well north of that low and takes over. Lets see if that happens.

[Phishy Wx]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

You better freaking believe it is!!!! 

however your cloud is broken

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

If you showed me that i would swear it would go south but a chunk of energy strengthens well north of that low and takes over. Let’s see if that happens.

Now is the time to discard the models. They could be wrong. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

After watching that hurricane last year come out of nowhere anything is possible!

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

If you showed me that i would swear it would go south but a chunk of energy strengthens well north of that low and takes over. Lets see if that happens.

yup supposedly the upper level low trailing down from Canada is going to phase with the low in Oregon and take over and form a new surface low over Seattle pretty much

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I still think you might some snow at some point. Going to be interesting. What i'm watching is how much cold air gets back in here after this low departs the area. Thursday has a shot.

The only potential for snow really is towards the end of the event…I just don’t see the mid levels cooling enough in time for a switch over to snow before the lower levels scour out. I could see the potential for some snow towards the end of the event along the I-5 corridor north of Seattle…but down here we’re just too far south. 

[Tyler Mode]

Listening to the scanner and they are calling for a sand truck to "give people a fighting chance".  They don't know where to close the freeway at this point.  People can't make it up the exit they have them taking.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, MossMan said:

Yes I’m psycho….But wouldn’t it be amazing to get at least a half inch of ice and then a foot of snow on top of it!!! 

No, it would not be awesome. 

[Winterdog]

Down to 31 after a high of 36.  Not expecting anything but a quick bout of freezing rain and moderating temps tonight.

[Willamette Weenie]

Anyone in the valley above freezing yet? I'm in the south around 500ft and it's still 25f according to me backyard station. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I think people just assume you’re always trolling. Sometimes you definitely are but I’ve been here long enough to tell the difference. Most of the time you’re just describing what the models show and trying to figure out what Will realistically happen. It may be off putting to some people but I overall appreciate the analysis. 

It is what it is.   Not trolling when analyzing upcoming events.   And nature will immediately humble you anyways if you try to sell that something that's not going to happen.   We have lots of situations in this area that are almost impossible to predict.  It's the thrill of the chase though!   That is what I enjoy most... trying to figure out the puzzle the models present. 

[Tyler Mode]

4 minutes ago, Willamette Weenie said:

Anyone in the valley above freezing yet? I'm in the south around 500ft and it's still 25f according to me backyard station. 

Closest I can find in valley is south of Eugene at Rice Hill, 34.  Still a north wind though.

[thickhog]

2 minutes ago, Willamette Weenie said:

Anyone in the valley above freezing yet? I'm in the south around 500ft and it's still 25f according to me backyard station. 

How soon were you forecast to be above freezing?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

No, it would not be awesome. 

You're right.  Actually would be better if it was snow then freezing rain.  I have seen that where I live. Had a decent amount of freezing rain around Christmas last year, but it fell on snow and wasn't a big deal.  But having ice under the snow isn't good at all.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The back edge of this initial moisture surge looks intense. Will probably get a brief break after it moves on through before more moisture comes later tonight.

 

[RentonHill]

5pm and still light out! Glorious!!

[Willamette Weenie]

Just now, thickhog said:

How soon were you forecast to be above freezing?

Yesterday GRAF was saying around 6pm today I would be above freezing, but most models showed closer to midnight. 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

It is what it is.   Not trolling when analyzing upcoming events.   And nature will immediately humble you anyways if you try to sell that something that's not going to happen.   We have lots of situations in this area that are almost impossible to predict.  It's the thrill of the chase though!   That is what I enjoy most... trying to figure out the puzzle the models present. 

I try to view things from an optimistic point of view. Sometimes the models are wrong and things end up better than expected. So far the past few days the models did a really good job with the Arctic front snowfall and the northern cutoff for snow Saturday. There was hope for things to be better but it didn’t work out that way. I think the models probably have a good grasp on what’s coming overnight besides the typical cold air scouring bias…but you never know. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

That intense echo returns look like it's going to hit me

[Jbolin]

In other news, my DP has shot up big time in the last two hours. From 13F to 22F 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I try to view things from an optimistic point of view. Sometimes the models are wrong and things end up better than expected. So far the past few days the models did a really good job with the Arctic front snowfall and the northern cutoff for snow Saturday. There was hope for things to be better but it didn’t work out that way. I think the models probably have a good grasp on what’s coming overnight besides the typical cold air scouring bias…but you never know. 

Even with technology today... nature still finds ways to surprise us.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Tyler Mode said:

Closest I can find in valley is south of Eugene at Rice Hill, 34.  Still a north wind though.

Rice Hill is a bit elevated though. I'm at 32.7 now, but of course I'm not in the valley and we were never supposed to have more than a glaze of ZR which we definitely got. At 1200' its still 26. And as I write this it just dropped to 31.8...

[Dave]

Light ZR still happening. Temps holding steady at 29. If I go outside, I can hear a large branch come down about every 30 seconds from around the neighborhood. My power has shut off twice, but came back on after a few seconds. I'm gathering up the candles and warm weather gear to be ready.

[awright-31]

Does anyone have the map of current 850 and 925mb temps? 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a 27/16 day here. Partly to mostly cloudy and cold. Precip moved in about an hour ago. Started off as sleet but now definitely a sleet ZR mix. Will be interested to see how long we stay in the freezer out here on the east side.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, awright-31 said:

Does anyone have the map of current 850 and 925mb temps? 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=11#
 Should be able to pull up the upper level analysis maps on here

[Tyler Mode]

3 minutes ago, awright-31 said:

Does anyone have the map of current 850 and 925mb temps? 

 

[MilwaukieOpal]

11 minutes ago, Willamette Weenie said:

Anyone in the valley above freezing yet? I'm in the south around 500ft and it's still 25f according to me backyard station. 

We have dropped two degrees from 29 down to 26 here in Gladstone/milwaukie

[MilwaukieOpal]

1 minute ago, MilwaukieOpal said:

We have dropped two degrees from 29 down to 26 here in Gladstone/milwaukie

29-27 sorry about that. Not 26. I can count I think lol

[Front Ranger]

25 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I can hear trees breaking in the distance and the power grid continues to get destroyed.

Historically bad ice storm.

EUG still stuck at 28.

[Requiem]

As usual it seems as though the cold air is more entrenched than models anticipated 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

As expected, the 18Z Euro mostly caved to the other, snowier models up this way.

8–10" now likely IMBY.

Good times!

[Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone]

Freezing rain has switched to very fine sleet now and accumulating. Very strange. I see DP matches the temp 26f 

[Willamette Weenie]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

As usual it seems as though the cold air is more entrenched than models anticipated 

In all my years living here I've never once seen it move out a quickly as models show. Now we're at the point where Mr. Nelson even says as much in his forecasts but is still underestimating how long it will take. 

Feels like the safe bet is take model consensus and add 12 hours to it. 

[Slushy Inch]

30 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Not moving north much yet

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

As expected, the 18Z Euro mostly caved to the other, snowier models up this way.

8–10" now likely IMBY.

Good times!

I will show up to your house with a blowtorch and melt the snow on your lawn. 

[Front Ranger]

16 minutes ago, thickhog said:

How soon were you forecast to be above freezing?

Not sure, but looks like the south valley was forecasted to get .1 to .3" of freezing rain. I think a lot of people have already exceeded that.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone said:

Freezing rain has switched to very fine sleet now and accumulating. Very strange. I see DP matches the temp 26f 

Interesting, not sure how this will translate to precip type up north. Would be nice to get some sleet atleast for a bit.