Meatyorologist Posted December 13, 2020 Report Share Posted December 13, 2020 This isn't the worst end to a model run I've ever seen. I think people are dunking on this because they see warmth over us and "WARM BAD!" But really this looks like we finally get the ability for some blocking in the long range, and unfortunately for us on this *specific* run it happened to set up right on top of us (still with the potential for retrograding.) Of course models won't nail down blocking locations more than two weeks out. Again, not the worst run ever, by a mile. 2 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 13, 2020 Report Share Posted December 13, 2020 And of course the CFS run just sh*t out whatever that was, so there's that. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 13, 2020 Report Share Posted December 13, 2020 Georgia/SC gets a major snowstorm. The northeast gets a massive snowstorm and seattle gets rain!! La Niña at its finest 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted December 13, 2020 Report Share Posted December 13, 2020 23 minutes ago, MossMan said: Drives me crazy when I see that area have a massive snow event while we are in the 50’s up here. COnsidering it is hour 384 it will not VERIFY so no reason to hate on them :_) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 13, 2020 Report Share Posted December 13, 2020 18z GEFS is pretty confident in an amplifying ridge setting up NNW of Hawaii in tandem with a polar gyre north of the Koreas. Good location, but a little too progressive with its movement. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 13, 2020 Report Share Posted December 13, 2020 East winds are getting pretty breezy here. At least we get one weekend of winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 13, 2020 Report Share Posted December 13, 2020 23 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: It's not really surprising, though. Usually those patterns are associated with our hot weather. Our death ridge is just their blocking pattern that digs arctic air south to the Gulf of Mexico. IDK, it just helps me feel better knowing it's not just a random awful twist of fate. If that trough just dig a little bit more we might see falling iguanas in FL. A nice way to ring in the New Year’s... falling iguanas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 13, 2020 Report Share Posted December 13, 2020 12 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Georgia/SC gets a major snowstorm. The northeast gets a massive snowstorm and seattle gets rain!! La Niña at its finest We'll be fine. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 13, 2020 Report Share Posted December 13, 2020 In actuality if you combine the 18z operational with the ensemble you get a decent picture. The operational has the amplitude and the ensemble has the good placement in the long range. The big difference with this operational run was the ridge after the Dec 23 trough pumps up more and forces the big block to form further west. Good chance that will change on subsequent runs. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 13, 2020 Report Share Posted December 13, 2020 We’ve gone 30 years without a white Christmas here. Not all that disappointing when the majority of the people in town have never experienced one. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 13, 2020 Report Share Posted December 13, 2020 I'm pleasantly surprised the clearing is holding until well after sunset. Might squeeze out another freeze tonight. Already down to 37 here. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 13, 2020 Report Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: We’ve gone 30 years without a white Christmas here. Not all that disappointing when the majority of the people in town have never experienced one. I can't believe you didn't get one in 2008. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted December 13, 2020 Report Share Posted December 13, 2020 31 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Mid levels are too warm. Snow levels are awfully low... Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 13, 2020 Report Share Posted December 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I can't believe you didn't get one in 2008. We’ve been over this before. Eugene did well with the initial arctic blast around December 14-16th. The snow line with the later stuff was between Salem and Albany. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 13, 2020 Report Share Posted December 13, 2020 18 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: 18z GEFS is pretty confident in an amplifying ridge setting up NNW of Hawaii in tandem with a polar gyre north of the Koreas. Good location, but a little too progressive with its movement. The models seem pretty confident the progressive nature of the pattern is going to cease around Christmas. Everything starts to lock at that point. Right now that trough digging off the coast of Asia looks very promising to me. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwonder Posted December 13, 2020 Report Share Posted December 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: In actuality if you combine the 18z operational with the ensemble you get a decent picture. The operational has the amplitude and the ensemble has the good placement in the long range. The big difference with this operational run was the ridge after the Dec 23 trough pumps up more and forces the big block to form further west. Good chance that will change on subsequent runs. Correct Jim Baby steps we will get there in the next few days regarding the placement of the ridge and up coming cold pattern Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 13, 2020 Report Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, weatherwonder said: Correct Jim Baby steps we will get there in the next few days regarding the placement of the ridge and up coming cold pattern We won't "get there" until at the most a few days out. But there is potential. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 13, 2020 Report Share Posted December 13, 2020 I forgot to mention Weatherbell updated their winter forecast the other day and now has us colder than normal for Dec - Feb. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 13, 2020 Report Share Posted December 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, weatherwonder said: Correct Jim Baby steps we will get there in the next few days regarding the placement of the ridge and up coming cold pattern I'm feeling pretty good about the latest model trends and MJO forecasts. I think the 18z ended up not as desirable due to one detail not going well for block placement late in the month. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 13, 2020 Report Share Posted December 13, 2020 Should be a decent ice event in the gorge later tonight. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 13, 2020 Report Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: I forgot to mention Weatherbell updated their winter forecast the other day and now has us colder than normal for Dec - Feb. The clock is ticking on December. But good to know they think we will be cold. Anything different than their earlier forecast? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 13, 2020 Report Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: The clock is ticking on December. But good to know they think we will be cold. Anything different than their earlier forecast? I think they're betting on January/February dragging down the average. Seattle is running +4.2 on the month so far. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 13, 2020 Report Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 hour ago, MossMan said: Drives me crazy when I see that area have a massive snow event while we are in the 50’s up here. I've had some weird things around here. When Redding had a foot of snow in 2019, it was raining at my place. It went back to snow so it was no biggie. lol Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 13, 2020 Report Share Posted December 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: I think they're betting on January/February dragging down the average. Seattle is running +4.2 on the month so far. A lot of places are running quite a bit cooler due to cold low temps early in the month. My monthly average is down to 42.3 now which is just a couple above normal. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 13, 2020 Report Share Posted December 13, 2020 12 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: The clock is ticking on December. But good to know they think we will be cold. Anything different than their earlier forecast? The new forecast has a pretty strong N to S anomaly gradient across the entire country from Great Lakes Westward. That type of theme is usually good for snow for the Seattle area. We don't do as well when the anomaly gradient is more E to W. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 13, 2020 Report Share Posted December 13, 2020 Dow to 35 now. Hopefully it can stay clear for a while longer. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 13, 2020 Report Share Posted December 13, 2020 3rd straight sub 40 high today. Not super unusual as our average high is down to 41 for the date, but feels like winter is here. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted December 13, 2020 Report Share Posted December 13, 2020 Temp has dropped from a hi of 36.8 to 30.4 here in the last 2 hours with light E/NE winds. Could be interesting after midnight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 13, 2020 Report Share Posted December 13, 2020 42 minutes ago, umadbro said: Snow levels are awfully low... 850mb temps are well above freezing tonight around our area. The column doesn't support snow until you get to around Stevenson. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 13, 2020 Report Share Posted December 13, 2020 22 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: The clock is ticking on December. But good to know they think we will be cold. Anything different than their earlier forecast? It’s a Dec.- Feb. overall data period, not a monthly, so my guess is they’re counting on Jan. and Feb. being colder. We’ll see I guess. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 13, 2020 Report Share Posted December 13, 2020 14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: A lot of places are running quite a bit cooler due to cold low temps early in the month. My monthly average is down to 42.3 now which is just a couple above normal. Yeah, Seattle WFO is running +2.8 and OLM +2.0. SEA, as usual, is the warm outlier. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 13, 2020 Report Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, Cloud said: It’s a Dec.- Feb. overall data period, not a monthly, so my guess is they’re counting on Jan. and Feb. being colder. We’ll see I guess. That makes sense, thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted December 13, 2020 Report Share Posted December 13, 2020 29.4 now. Some good decoupling going on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 13, 2020 Report Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 hours ago, Jbolin said: Quick update for you guys. Despite my positive COVID test result I will be heading into the ER later this afternoon for further treatment, specifically to address my ever increasing breathing issues that are further compounded by my asthma. Otherwise I am doing well but still feeling like crap, I'm able to keep food down after vomiting for a few days, fever is almost nonexistent and some of my most severe symptoms have waned but I am still fairly weak and lethargic. Hoping for better days ahead. Take care my dysfunctional family Kick its a** brother. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 13, 2020 Report Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said: I find it crazy how a region that is unequivocally subtropical year-round has this four month period out of the year where it can randomly get a ten inch snowstorm. Not many other places in the world are like this, save for SE Asia. That would be painful to watch for me. Especially if Wednesday’s storm is a torchy slopfest. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted December 13, 2020 Report Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Phil said: That would be painful to watch for me. Especially if Wednesday’s storm is a torchy slopfest. At 16 days away I wouldn't expect the pattern to even be similar to this. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 13, 2020 Report Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: At 16 days away I wouldn't expect the pattern to even be similar to this. You don’t say? 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 13, 2020 Report Share Posted December 13, 2020 Last night's long range GEFS not looking very good so far, especially compared to the previous nights. Vs the previous run: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted December 13, 2020 Report Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Phil said: You don’t say? The percentage chance is slim. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 13, 2020 Report Share Posted December 13, 2020 Oof as Phil says, we have to wait til March for significant troughing. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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