MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 All of a sudden the Nam is the trusted model hahahaha!!! 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 If anything, I think there is a good chance for some picturesque fat flakes in the air tomorrow to get people in the Christmas mood. Accumulating snow tbd! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: All of a sudden the Nam is the trusted model hahahaha!!! It's really cut back on the Kitsap totals huh? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Live by the map, die by the map. Facts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: All of a sudden the Nam is the trusted model hahahaha!!! Probably about as trusted as the GFS these days? Idk haha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 Bwahahahahahahahahaha! Rug pull! Team rain wins again! 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 Needless to say, there's a lot riding on tonight's upcoming 0z model runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 13 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Here's the 3km NAM through 7PM. It cut way back on totals for just about everyone compared to 18z. Pretty much the entire event for King County is between 3-6PM. I think this needs to go through the printer ink one more time Booooooooo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said: Bwahahahahahahahahaha! Rug pull! Team rain wins again! Downvote this to oblivion now!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 The most trusted model is the one that shows the most snow...duhhhh And the models don't know what's going on out in la la land, unless it's showing cold/snow. Weenie post sorry 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 NWS Seattle must have cracked open a bottle of Champagne after that NAM run 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, Cloud said: Downvote this to oblivion now!! Sorry, your downvotes won’t make it snow. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 A small area will get hammered and most get conversational snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 In analyzing the past 4 NAM 3km runs from 4-7 AM Monday specifically looking at 700-500mb Frontogenesis, Temp Advection, Winds, Heights, and Cyclonic Vorticity, it appears tonight's run features stronger 700mb winds ~SSW 60 KT along the exit region of the trough following the 292dam contour digging a bit more sharply. This coincides with more consolidated Cyclonic Vorticity and lift giving the wave development into the surface low a bit more punch. The 700mb wind field itself is far more expansive along and ahead the sharpening cold front offshore. The weaker solutions along the 292dam height contour did not feature as sharp of a 'dip' and thus the Cyclonic energy was a bit more stretched hampering development towards the central Washington Coast. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 hour ago, OysterPrintout said: yeah hills tend to do ok in the marginal setups. March I had about 15 minutes of a great snow globe onto wet pavement which has by and large been the modus operandi in the city center since Jan 2017. Some dustings in 2019. The last event of any real sticking snow was 2/20 2018 which had had 4" at the airport but I got about 1-2" in Goose Hollow Hoping we can all get buried with snow come January-- fingers crossed! 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 minute ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: A small area will get hammered and most get conversational snow. How many variations of the saying the same thing can you come up with? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 Welp. Local mets like Scott and Morgan seems to think is a >300-500’ event as they’re starting to get a clearer picture somewhat. As expected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Sorry, your downvotes won’t make it snow. D**n it! I was under the impression that it would. Stupid reversal mind trick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Cloud said: Welp. Local mets like Scott and Morgan seems to think is a >300-500’ event as they’re starting to get a clearer picture somewhat. As expected. The NAM gave them a clear picture? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: In analyzing the past 4 NAM 3km runs from 4-7 AM Monday specifically looking at 700-500mb Frontogenesis, Temp Advection, Winds, Heights, and Cyclonic Vorticity, it appears tonight's run features stronger 700mb winds ~SSW 60 KT along the exit region of the trough following the 292dam contour digging a bit more sharply. This coincides with more consolidated Cyclonic Vorticity and lift giving the wave development into the surface low a bit more punch. The 700mb wind field itself is far more expansive along and ahead the sharpening cold front offshore. The weaker solutions along the 292dam height contour did not feature as sharp of a 'dip' and thus the Cyclonic energy was a bit more stretched hampering development towards the central Washington Coast. So it’s not the ink cartridge just being low on color ink 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, wxmet said: How many variations of the saying the same thing can you come up with? Lived it for 15 years. It is what will happen. This setup happened a hundred times while I was there. A convergence zone in a small area will be what makes it snow. Widespread puget sound snow just isn't going to happen, those models are on crack. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 10 minutes ago, wxmet said: It's really cut back on the Kitsap totals huh? I haven't been sold on this one at all. But I also recognize how dynamic this is. Going to be interesting!! Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted December 21, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 1.03” at HIO makes today the first day since 2/12/19 with over an inch of rain at HIO. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Jginmartini said: So it’s not the ink cartridge just being low on color ink It could be, and that would be more sensible than my analysis. 00z NAM (Christmas Day) in 119 hours 5 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 minute ago, wxmet said: The NAM gave them a clear picture? They’re actually very reliant on the NAM as far as I know in the past. So maybe that’s what they’re going with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 Should I go into full weenie mode after the 00z gfs or the 00z euro. Asking for a friend 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 GOLU model will be the best model, IMO. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 hour ago, OysterPrintout said: yeah hills tend to do ok in the marginal setups. March I had about 15 minutes of a great snow globe onto wet pavement which has by and large been the modus operandi in the city center since Jan 2017. Some dustings in 2019. The last event of any real sticking snow was 2/20 2018 which had had 4" at the airport but I got about 1-2" in Goose Hollow Yeah, it's been pretty lame here since February 2018. I had 2.5" total in 2018-19 and somehow had more with 3" last winter, but there hasn't been a daylong event since 2/20/18. I know most of Washington, Columbia, and Cowlitz counties are a similar story. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 King.................... EURO, GFS, GEM, UKMET, HRRR, CMCE, GEFS, EPS, RAP, HRDPS, HRW WRF-ARW, HRW NMMB, HRW WRF-NSSL, WRF, NAM 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: King.................... EURO, GFS, GEM, UKMET, HRRR, CMCE, GEFS, EPS, RAP, HRDPS, HRW WRF-ARW, HRW NMMB, HRW WRF-NSSL, WRF, NAM GFSv16, CFS, IBM GRAF, JMA, KMA, NOGAPS 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 3 hours ago, MossMan said: It does? I need to take a look! Anyway the damage is done, equipment is staged, and my wife just found out. What’s with the ramp? 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, Phil said: What’s with the ramp? He likes to ride the mower into the house. 1 5 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 Very rainy out there. 54/48 for the day. Currently 51F. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 31 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: Lived it for 15 years. It is what will happen. This setup happened a hundred times while I was there. A convergence zone in a small area will be what makes it snow. Widespread puget sound snow just isn't going to happen, those models are on crack. Could you point me to the years and dates since this has happened so frequently? I would love to take a look. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 19 minutes ago, Phil said: What’s with the ramp? A few months after buying the place we converted the entertainment room into a MIL and moved my mom in. She had a senior blind dog so we added that ramp for them. 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 27 minutes ago, Phil said: What’s with the ramp? Have you ever seen a weenie try to take the stairs? 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 Last night's GEFS starting with day 17. Imagine a SSW event with this 500mb pattern 5 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 The 0z RGEM is further north, but not as far north as the NAM: 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 Hey guys did you see [insert model that nobody has ever heard of]? It shows 3 feet of snow for everybody!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said: The 0z RGEM is further north, but not as far north as the NAM: RGEM 4mb weaker, 700mb Frontogenesis is weaker than the NAM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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