January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Nobody say a goddam thing!

Need a smoke after that run. All that pepto!!

[jakerepp]

1 minute ago, GobBluth said:

fun to note that the GEM led the way in this pattern switch, assuming it happens.

GEM -> Euro -> GFS

Interesting progression.

[umadbro]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Nobody say a goddam thing!

I've already chained up my tires.

[paulb/eugene]

That was a terrible run.  Winter is over. On to summer!

[MWG]

6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Finally, the 384 hour snowfall map because... well, because why not!

Can you post the southern part of OR?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, MWG said:

Can you post the southern part of OR?

[MWG]

Hopefully another February 2019 repeat! 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Streak-breaker?!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Runtmc said:

“Wait for the rug pull”

”next”

”Euro!”

”WOW! DEVASTATING TRENDS!”

”I’ll believe it when I see it.”

”teleconnections problems”

“Noticeable easterly shift”

Well, I think that should cover some of you for the rest of the day.  

Wow! Devastating trends is my trademark. Y’all know it’s coming.

[umadbro]

Nice fresh rug under our feet.

[AlTahoe]

1 hour ago, The Blob said:

Is that the west side of the lake? I remember the window on the bench door of my mom's suburban shattering. It was cold and snowy like this. 

Looks to be South Shore at Beach Retreat resort. 

Never mind saw your other post. That is the El Dorado Commons beach at the end of my neighborhood. 

Pre pandemic we had nice weekly concerts there in summer.

[weather_fan]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow! Devastating trends is my trademark. Y’all know it’s coming.

I will believe when I see it in my weather app

[Prairiedog]

My frogs and fruit flies are gonna take a hit. 

My question to those smarter than me (that would be all of you), historically is one model better in accuracy for arctic air, an actual arctic front (not backdoor cold)?  It seems sometimes the GFS leads the way, other times the EURO. 

The EURO certainly isn't infallible.  Who led the way in 08 for example?  I can't remember.   Didn't the GFS do the best in '19?  The EURO sucked for PDX with snow but had it right for WA.  Memory is the second thing to go at my age so I'm struggling here.  Has the GEM ever nailed it over the other two?

[Omegaraptor]

how are models this morning

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

11 minutes ago, weather_fan said:

I will believe when I see it in my weather app

If you see it in the weather app, it is bad news.

Seriously, ditch the weather app and go with trusted forecasts.  TV Mets and the NWS are way better than the apps and actually have real meteorologists from your area making an actual forecast. 

I know there are apps that actually use NWS forecasts, they would be ok.

[TT-SEA]

Another nice day...

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF Day 2

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

23 minutes ago, weather_fan said:

I will believe when I see it in my weather app

And here is a good article about it.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.providencejournal.com/news/20200206/dont-count-on-most-weather-apps-for-accuracy%3ftemplate=ampart

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interesting to see Astoria hit 27 this morning!

[Front Ranger]

I am paying attention to this Euro run.

[Fircrest]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Nobody say a goddam thing!

Need a smoke after that run. All that pepto!!

I've been telling people for so long they don't even pay attention anymore. My wife pretty much tunes me out. Some day I will be right!

[Jesse]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Interesting to see Astoria hit 27 this morning!

We were so close to a cold night in the western lowlands ;(

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, GobBluth said:

fun to note that the GEM led the way in this pattern switch, assuming it happens.

That model also took a step back this morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

That model also took a step back this morning.

It did? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mr. Debbie Downer here didn’t mind the GEM.

 

[jakerepp]

Didn't see anyone post this frame yet...

[weather_fan]

25 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

And here is a good article about it.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.providencejournal.com/news/20200206/dont-count-on-most-weather-apps-for-accuracy%3ftemplate=ampart

Yeah ofcourse I know they are not good at the intricacies but they should hop on to the overall pattern. Saw it on Feb 2019 ah what a legendary month.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

So far to 168 ecmwf step in wrong direction.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

7 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Didn't see anyone post this frame yet...

A rich man's 2-25-19

[Timmy]

Euro not as good at day 8

[Front Ranger]

17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It did? 

Yes. Compare the amount of cold on the western US days 8-10 with the 0z.

[SalemDuck]

Euro is going to be just fine. No patience this morning. Next Thursday-Friday is a backdoor shot that cools the basin, then around Super Bowl Sunday the real fun begins.

 

[Front Ranger]

11 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Euro not as good at day 8

Block looks great at day 9, though.

[bainbridgekid]

Day 9 of the Euro has the best looking block on any model I've seen. 570 heights well into Alaska.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

Euro is going to be just fine. No patience this morning. Next Thursday-Friday is a backdoor shot that cools the basin, then around Super Bowl Sunday the real fun begins.

 

Super Bowl Sunday again! 

That would be surreal.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Super Bowl Sunday again! 

That would be surreal.

It's going to happen Tim.

[bainbridgekid]

As expected with that block, day 10 delivers.

This has much more of a "classic" cold look than any model I can remember seeing inside 10 days this year.

 

[Timmy]

5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Ridge looks great at day 9, though.

It does, but unfortunately pushes everything back 24 hours, never a good thing this far out

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Last frame

[TT-SEA]

Total snow per the 12Z ECMWF...