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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Unfortunately... most of that is 35-40 degree snow and temps are around 40 on the morning of day 10.    Going to need an eastward shift... too much onshore flow in the 7-10 day period on this run. 

Looking good. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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No idea this was going to happen today! Mcminnville  

Some pics on the way up to my property.  The ones on the road are 1/4 mile down the road and the gate is the beginning of my 120 acre land.

Posted Images

2 minutes ago, Acer said:

Wow, the 12Z GFS sure gets ugly in the clown range.  

Plenty of time to turn it around! 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12Z EPS indicates it gets warmer after day 10 with retrogression continuing.    

Day 10 on top and then day 12 on the bottom... waiting to see if that reverses after day 12. 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1748800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1921600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS indicates it gets warmer after day 10 with retrogression continuing.    

Day 10 on top and then day 12 on the bottom... waiting to see if that reverses after day 12. 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1748800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1921600.png

Looks like it retreats but then begins to build again in Northern BC

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS indicates it gets warmer after day 10 with retrogression continuing.    

Day 10 on top and then day 12 on the bottom... waiting to see if that reverses after day 12. 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1748800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1921600.png

Just temporary. First few days of February the hammer drops and good are delivered to the populous. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just temporary. First few days of February the hammer drops and good are delivered to the populous. 

Biden stimulus???

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just temporary. First few days of February the hammer drops and good are delivered to the populous. 

Unfortunately it has not moved any closer on February 1st... which is day 15 now.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-2180800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, AlTahoe said:

We have a monster east wind event coming up Monday night. These are always scary as the trees aren't as strong for east winds. We had a bunch of trees crush houses during the last two big events. 

 



Winds: Peak winds are expected Monday evening through Tuesday 
  morning coinciding with a 300 mb jet maximum of 155+kts centered 
  over the Tahoe Basin. With the upper-level support and 700 mb 
  high-res wind guidance (GFS, ECMWF, & NAM) showing widespread 
  50-75 kts from Lassen down to northern Mono County, strong and 
  potentially damaging northeast winds are highly likely along the 
  Sierra during this time. As mentioned in previous discussions, 
  the looks of this event remains between the February 2020 (southern 
  Tahoe Basin damage) and December 2011 (Devils Postpile blowdown)  

That looks rough buddy. Same reason I fear the next big hurricane that tracks under us. Rarely see SE winds here so trees aren’t acclimated. Power grid is going to be completely and utterly demolished when it inevitably happens.

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Don't like that "far from certain" qualifier in the headline.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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With somewhere around 20 microclimates in the Porltand area, I think we should have a forecast for each one.  I really want to know about the guy that's at 850 feet and whether he'll get snow or not. 

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1 minute ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

Just having a little fun at your expense. 😋

Doing some laundry, watching football, trying to get my baby down for a nap, pets are being annoying, etc.......You're lucky I can even write an incorrect sentence at the moment. LOL

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5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I’m in the purple! 

I'm in the pepto.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

I'm in the baby blue, but models always screw up my little region between Redmond and Madras.  

My friend who lives near you has had like maybe 1/4" of precip this month. We're up to about 10.5" here. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My friend who lives near you has had like maybe 1/4" of precip this month. We're up to about 10.5" here. 

Funny you say that, my Davis shows 0.25, but I don't think it is completely accurate.  A lot of it is snowmelt and icemelt, that I think is read on the low side due to evaporation.  I would bet realistically I have had .50 or so.

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47 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Yup.  And the EPS shows some good potential for the Portland area too.

image.thumb.png.56ec501f0593551f24d87c45ce34a9c6.png

Hot pink for me but BARELY.😟

Knowing how this winter has panned out so far I’ll be surprised if I get more than 10 inches.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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The ECMWF suite of models is pretty adamant we will be cold enough for snow during at least part of the 6 to 11 day period or so.  The interesting part is the trough axis ends up in he perfect spot for it to be cold enough for snow with WSW flow aloft which is often a good situation for the Central / South Sound area to do well.  We'll see.  The models are still changing in big ways on most runs so the situation is far from settled. As for the longer range the models agree on a phase 7 MJO by the end of the month.  That is the most likely phase to bring below normal temps to the NW during the winter.  Much to be worked out yet.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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37 minutes ago, MWG said:

Can you show southern part of OR?

For whatever reason WB doesn’t have the EC ensemble zoomed in to Oregon.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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14 minutes ago, einsteinjr said:

Relevant, especially for our Lake Tahoe friend:

cold.png

It's cyclical at least to some extent.  The period of time we are living in is way too short to draw any kind of conclusions.  Most people aren't even aware of drastically the climate has shifted in the recent past (50,000 years).  What we've seen in the last 100 years isn't even a blip in the big picture.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Just now, Kolk1604 said:

Thank you

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Keeps trending better in the home stretch.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

24

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