SilverFallsAndrew 14874 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Unfortunately... most of that is 35-40 degree snow and temps are around 40 on the morning of day 10. Going to need an eastward shift... too much onshore flow in the 7-10 day period on this run. Looking good. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 10.5" 2020-21: 52.02" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to post Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew 14874 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, Acer said: Wow, the 12Z GFS sure gets ugly in the clown range. Plenty of time to turn it around! 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 10.5" 2020-21: 52.02" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to post Share on other sites
SouthHillFrosty 1404 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 Fogged in at the moment in Des Moines Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MossMan 10592 Posted January 17 Author Report Share Posted January 17 I want the PUD’s set up in my house to track the weather! Wonder if Jim’s living room looks like this... 2 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 3726 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 12Z EPS indicates it gets warmer after day 10 with retrogression continuing. Day 10 on top and then day 12 on the bottom... waiting to see if that reverses after day 12. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
jakerepp 1065 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 I was having dinner out last night and heard the couple at the table across from us say ‘it supposed to snow next week.’ Welp, cats out of the bag now 1 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Kolk1604 880 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z EPS indicates it gets warmer after day 10 with retrogression continuing. Day 10 on top and then day 12 on the bottom... waiting to see if that reverses after day 12. Looks like it retreats but then begins to build again in Northern BC Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew 14874 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z EPS indicates it gets warmer after day 10 with retrogression continuing. Day 10 on top and then day 12 on the bottom... waiting to see if that reverses after day 12. Just temporary. First few days of February the hammer drops and good are delivered to the populous. 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 10.5" 2020-21: 52.02" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to post Share on other sites
Deweydog 14104 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Just temporary. First few days of February the hammer drops and good are delivered to the populous. Biden stimulus??? 1 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 3726 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Just temporary. First few days of February the hammer drops and good are delivered to the populous. Unfortunately it has not moved any closer on February 1st... which is day 15 now. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 3726 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 Full 12Z EPS run... 850mb temp anomalies. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
MossMan 10592 Posted January 17 Author Report Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Full 12Z EPS run... 850mb temp anomalies. Not bad, should hopefully trend better in the coming days. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 3726 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 12Z EPS... 500mb level. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
Phil 11769 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 2 hours ago, AlTahoe said: We have a monster east wind event coming up Monday night. These are always scary as the trees aren't as strong for east winds. We had a bunch of trees crush houses during the last two big events. Winds: Peak winds are expected Monday evening through Tuesday morning coinciding with a 300 mb jet maximum of 155+kts centered over the Tahoe Basin. With the upper-level support and 700 mb high-res wind guidance (GFS, ECMWF, & NAM) showing widespread 50-75 kts from Lassen down to northern Mono County, strong and potentially damaging northeast winds are highly likely along the Sierra during this time. As mentioned in previous discussions, the looks of this event remains between the February 2020 (southern Tahoe Basin damage) and December 2011 (Devils Postpile blowdown) That looks rough buddy. Same reason I fear the next big hurricane that tracks under us. Rarely see SE winds here so trees aren’t acclimated. Power grid is going to be completely and utterly demolished when it inevitably happens. Quote Personal Weather Station: NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=F3819&num=168&banner=NONE Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62/graph/2019-08-23/2019-08-23/daily Link to post Share on other sites
Deweydog 14104 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 The word is out!!! https://www.oregonlive.com/weather/2021/01/snow-in-portland-next-week-its-possible-but-far-from-certain.html 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 3726 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: The word is out!!! https://www.oregonlive.com/weather/2021/01/snow-in-portland-next-week-its-possible-but-far-from-certain.html Don't like that "far from certain" qualifier in the headline. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
ShawniganLake 5466 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: The word is out!!! https://www.oregonlive.com/weather/2021/01/snow-in-portland-next-week-its-possible-but-far-from-certain.html 900, 1400, 2200ft. They have very precise snow level forecasts for 5 days away. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Prairiedog 595 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 With somewhere around 20 microclimates in the Porltand area, I think we should have a forecast for each one. I really want to know about the guy that's at 850 feet and whether he'll get snow or not. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MossMan 10592 Posted January 17 Author Report Share Posted January 17 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TheNewCulverJosh 406 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 48 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z EPS... 500mb level. Regardless what happens, that pattern will produce tons of mountain and foothill snow, and all of central and eastern OR/WA should score too!! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Poulsbo Snowman 382 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 5 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: Regardless what happens, that pattern will produce tons of mountain and foothill snow, and all of central and eastern OR/WA should score too!! True. Except if something else happens. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TheNewCulverJosh 406 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, Poulsbo Snowman said: True. Except if something else happens. Ok, I am multi-tasking so that wasn't worded correctly. Instead of "regardless what happens", let me insert "if it verifies". Happy now? :). 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Poulsbo Snowman 382 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: Ok, I am multi-tasking so that wasn't worded correctly. Instead of "regardless what happens", let me insert "if it verifies". Happy now? :). Just having a little fun at your expense. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TheNewCulverJosh 406 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, Poulsbo Snowman said: Just having a little fun at your expense. Doing some laundry, watching football, trying to get my baby down for a nap, pets are being annoying, etc.......You're lucky I can even write an incorrect sentence at the moment. LOL 1 1 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Brian_in_Leavenworth 2951 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 14 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: Regardless what happens, that pattern will produce tons of mountain and foothill snow, and all of central and eastern OR/WA should score too!! Yup. And the EPS shows some good potential for the Portland area too. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TheNewCulverJosh 406 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 5 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Yup. And the EPS shows some good potential for the Portland area too. Went to Leavenworth many times when I lived in the Seattle area. Amazed how much it snows for only 1100+ feet elevation. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MossMan 10592 Posted January 17 Author Report Share Posted January 17 23 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Yup. And the EPS shows some good potential for the Portland area too. I’m in the purple! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew 14874 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 5 minutes ago, MossMan said: I’m in the purple! I'm in the pepto. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 10.5" 2020-21: 52.02" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to post Share on other sites
umadbro 778 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 I'm in the blue that'll never pan out! 2 Quote KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWARIDGE52 Link to post Share on other sites
TheNewCulverJosh 406 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I'm in the pepto. I'm in the baby blue, but models always screw up my little region between Redmond and Madras. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MossMan 10592 Posted January 17 Author Report Share Posted January 17 It was a lovely snowy day 9yrs ago today. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew 14874 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: I'm in the baby blue, but models always screw up my little region between Redmond and Madras. My friend who lives near you has had like maybe 1/4" of precip this month. We're up to about 10.5" here. Quote Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 10.5" 2020-21: 52.02" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to post Share on other sites
Jginmartini 3806 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 56 minutes ago, MossMan said: Gene is onboard 1 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MWG 199 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 34 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Yup. And the EPS shows some good potential for the Portland area too. Can you show southern part of OR? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TheNewCulverJosh 406 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: My friend who lives near you has had like maybe 1/4" of precip this month. We're up to about 10.5" here. Funny you say that, my Davis shows 0.25, but I don't think it is completely accurate. A lot of it is snowmelt and icemelt, that I think is read on the low side due to evaporation. I would bet realistically I have had .50 or so. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Deweydog 14104 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 47 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Yup. And the EPS shows some good potential for the Portland area too. Hot pink for me but BARELY. Knowing how this winter has panned out so far I’ll be surprised if I get more than 10 inches. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to post Share on other sites
einsteinjr 117 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 Relevant, especially for our Lake Tahoe friend: 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
snow_wizard 11705 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 The ECMWF suite of models is pretty adamant we will be cold enough for snow during at least part of the 6 to 11 day period or so. The interesting part is the trough axis ends up in he perfect spot for it to be cold enough for snow with WSW flow aloft which is often a good situation for the Central / South Sound area to do well. We'll see. The models are still changing in big ways on most runs so the situation is far from settled. As for the longer range the models agree on a phase 7 MJO by the end of the month. That is the most likely phase to bring below normal temps to the NW during the winter. Much to be worked out yet. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2020-21 stats Total Snowfall = 7.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5 Total Hail = 0.0" Coldest Low = 23 Lows 32 or below = 35 Highs 32 or below = 2 Lows 20 or below = 0 Highs 40 or below = 5 Link to post Share on other sites
TigerWoodsLibido 5627 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 37 minutes ago, MWG said: Can you show southern part of OR? For whatever reason WB doesn’t have the EC ensemble zoomed in to Oregon. Quote Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats: Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21) Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26) Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021) Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24) Total snowfall: 0.0" Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7" GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy My Twitter @357jerseys4hope 24 Link to post Share on other sites
12345WeatherNerd 229 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 Way more cold air in place compared to the 12z for the 24th. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
snow_wizard 11705 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 14 minutes ago, einsteinjr said: Relevant, especially for our Lake Tahoe friend: It's cyclical at least to some extent. The period of time we are living in is way too short to draw any kind of conclusions. Most people aren't even aware of drastically the climate has shifted in the recent past (50,000 years). What we've seen in the last 100 years isn't even a blip in the big picture. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2020-21 stats Total Snowfall = 7.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5 Total Hail = 0.0" Coldest Low = 23 Lows 32 or below = 35 Highs 32 or below = 2 Lows 20 or below = 0 Highs 40 or below = 5 Link to post Share on other sites
MWG 199 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: For whatever reason WB doesn’t have the EC ensemble zoomed in to Oregon. Ahh sucks thanks though! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Kolk1604 880 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 @MWG 1 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TigerWoodsLibido 5627 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 Just now, Kolk1604 said: @MWG Thank you 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats: Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21) Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26) Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021) Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24) Total snowfall: 0.0" Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7" GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy My Twitter @357jerseys4hope 24 Link to post Share on other sites
Meteorologist wxmet 2013 Posted January 17 Meteorologist Report Share Posted January 17 5 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Timmy 2209 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 Little more offshore component here 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Kolk1604 880 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 One more. Here's the 12z EMCWF Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Deweydog 14104 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 Kayla alert! 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to post Share on other sites
TigerWoodsLibido 5627 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 Keeps trending better in the home stretch. 2 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats: Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21) Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26) Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021) Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24) Total snowfall: 0.0" Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7" GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy My Twitter @357jerseys4hope 24 Link to post Share on other sites
MWG 199 Posted January 17 Report Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: @MWG Thanks!! Looks like purple here in Medford. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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