Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, nwsnow said: Those snow maps sure look great for PDX right now but you don't want to be in the sweet spot this far out. Really playing with fire. Just a single north trend away from turning into a quick snow to rain with minimal accumulation event. If I had to guess right now, I think the sweet spot ends up somewhere north of PDX. This is gonna be one long and exhausting week of model riding. Going to be an intense next few days. Big boom or bust factor in all of this. Hopefully Mark will update us soon on his blog. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 NWS point forecast has 17/31 for me on Thursday. Weather.com is going with 14/26. Either would do, though I would prefer to best the 13/19 day I got in January of last year. 1 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fircrest Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 10 minutes ago, Jginmartini said: Feeling really good about this! Faucet covers go on later today We recently had our last outdoor faucet converted to a frost proof one. I don't really like the way they work, but it eliminates covering them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 17 minutes ago, Jginmartini said: Beautiful clear sky’s this morning locally if you happen to actually look outside! 40* Thoughts of 2/2019 remind me my screentime was up 1,000 percent Only sunny in the shadowed areas... not everywhere. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Long range forecast discussion from SEA NWS this morning: .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...There is still quite a bit of uncertainty for the long term. What we are confident in: The offshore flow pattern will continue through the week and will continue to funnel in that colder air through the Fraser River Valley as well as through the Cascade gaps. This air is also going to be rather dry both at the surface and aloft, so if any precipitation were to occur it is going to be very light. Where uncertainty starts: While the various deterministic models and their ensembles are becoming in more agreement with high temperatures there is still Also, deterministic and ensemble models are becoming in much more agreement when it comes to the high temperatures. There is still a good 5-7 degree temperature spread. Right now, we have highs in the mid 30s for much of the lowlands come the later part of the week, but with the uncertainty, highs in the low 30s is still within the realm of possibilities. When it comes to the lows, the range of possible temperatures is even greater. Low temperatures in the mid 20s is the most likely outcome, but the potential for it to be in the teens or in the upper 20s is there. In the end, what will be the deciding factor in what the temperature actually is will be the strength of of the winds through the Cascades and out of the Fraser River, as well as cloud cover. The other area of low confidence in the long term is the potential for precipitation. As mentioned in the short term discussion the North side of the Olympic Peninsula has some potential for some marine and terrain enhanced precipitation due to the flow out of the Fraser River. Also, towards the end of the long term forecast period we are expecting a transition into warmer temperatures as the surface high is forced further east due to an incoming weather system. As this weather system moves in it will bring some additional moisture. With this moisture and still relatively cold temperatures, the best chance for seeing lowland snow would be at the start of the weekend. But this is still a long ways away and it will greatly depend on how much moisture is added, where the system tracks, and how fast the temperatures are rising here in Western Washington. Butwin 1 1 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 27 minutes ago, Phil said: Archive that CMC run. Might be the craziest one you’ll ever see. That is without a doubt the coldest single run I’ve ever seen for the PNW. Edges out a couple from January 2005, at least based on memory. And that includes long range GOOFUS stuff. 5 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 22 minutes ago, Requiem said: At the same time I like that we have the amount of cold air to tap into that we do. In the end I feel like areas that are influenced by the gorge will be okay. Yeah the ridiculous cold air nearby can go a long way towards bailing us out of many things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, Deweydog said: That is without a doubt the coldest single run I’ve ever seen for the PNW. Edges out a couple from January 2005, at least based on memory. And that includes long range GOOFUS stuff. Yeah I doubt those mega cold solutions verify...but it’ll still get pretty d*mn cold it looks like! Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Hammer all of us King EURO! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 24 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: I get the feeling it’ll actually work out alright...sometimes these things don’t trend north after all. With a massive supply of cold air to work with too...I’m getting a good feeling about this being great on a regional scale. We have more cards in our favor than usual. Yeah, I am hoping that arctic push and the shortwave rotating out of the north will mitigate how much further north these lows can push. The Euro is clearly leading the way right now in terms of the track of these storms so this 12z run should be real interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Sure hope something like this verifies. Would be nice to see some snow as the arctic front sweeps in, instead of the much more typical scenario of a dry blast followed by a quick-melting slushfest. 3 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Yeah I doubt those mega cold solutions verify...but it’ll still get pretty d*mn cold it looks like! The door is open for a ton of scenarios. The Canadian one is pretty close to complete fantasy. 3 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Hope we get something. Looks like the temps around here are going to be low 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 26 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Yup… if I took all those model runs seriously I’d be in full-fledged pity party mode right now because they show me getting the short end of the stick snow-wise. This far out, we really don’t know. The good thing is that there are now genuine possibilities for all. Beats the pants off model runs showing nothing but endless torching. Yeah I doubt your area gets screwed. There will for sure be surprises with the up coming events and at the least I expect northern areas to score with the initial arctic front or one of the later systems that comes along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 13 minutes ago, nwsnow said: Yeah I doubt your area gets screwed. There will for sure be surprises with the up coming events and at the least I expect northern areas to score with the initial arctic front or one of the later systems that comes along. A lot of the Canadian forum is rooting for an unforecast surface low to develop as the cold outflow on the BC coast interacts with the warmer ocean, and so am I. This sort of thing has delivered the goods for my area more than once, and models seem to have a hard time anticipating it. Add that to a general tendency for things to trend north as the time frame closes and I really don’t have any grounds for pessimism. 4 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Looks like Uranium City, Saskatchewen hit -56 this morning, which would set an all-time February low and tie their all-time record low from January 1974. 5 1 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 I see the absurd run to run consistency of the GFS is still going today. That graphic Rob posted last night for the last 4 runs said it all. Every other run bad. Thankfully the ensemble mean says this thing's a go. How about that GEM run. Just your everyday 498 thickness over SEA! 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 4 2 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Only sunny in the shadowed areas... not everywhere. Hence the word locally Still breezy though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: 7 was like the coldest temp I experienced west of the cascades (Dec 2009) and there are FIVE lows colder than that in a row. 1 Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 17 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 hour ago, ..... said: It's me PuyallupJon reimagined for the next four years. Black is beautiful and the best best thing ever. Everything black is wonderful and amazing. I've seen these types of situatations unfold before. With the initial shot I'd be happy if things went too far south. So many times the cold air doesn't make it here Paint it black 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Look away, look away! Nothing to see here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Euro looks warmer heading into Thursday. 1 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Arctic front snow during the day on Wednesday... 2 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Euro will be north with the energy of the Pacific. Looks to be way north at 72 already 1 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: Euro looks warmer heading into Thursday. Yeah the trough is digging west instead of SW allowing battle zone to shift north. 1 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 29 minutes ago, Fircrest said: We recently had our last outdoor faucet converted to a frost proof one. I don't really like the way they work, but it eliminates covering them. I’ve had two pipes burst in my lifetime thus far. Both in the garage and so very thankful for that. One was in 1996 at my old house in Troutdale and once at my current location. I put in a shutoff valve this time in my garage for the front faucet. So far so good and don’t want to ever experience a broken water pipe again! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Once again... the arctic front barely passes Seattle and immediately the precip is roaring in from the west. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Snow on Thursday... way north of 00Z run. 4 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Yeah euro is north for Thursday. Rain for PDX and heavy snow up north. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 PM Thursday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 A trend north is disconcerting. I'm hoping for the colder solutions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Yikes. Not good for OR. Temps in the mid 20s with bigtime snow here. 2 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Nice can’t wait to move to Boulder someday 3 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Brutal run for oregon 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 7 hours ago, Snowdrift said: Looks like a sausage Analog? 1 2 Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 120 hrs the differences in all the major players in the model world is stunning. 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 This trend is typical and not surprising. One day many years from now my daughter will get to experience her first snow storm. 3 3 https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, jakerepp said: Analog? John Holmes 1977. We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 That is quite a dramatic shift. More north than I anticipated. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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