MossMan Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Does this count as the first shade of grey? 2 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just a dud of a 12z 1 https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: you are making me hate puppies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said: In Feb 2019 I was hanging on hoping the low wouldn't go north and it went south for Eugene. Still a lot of runs to go here before anyone should be feeling real confident about anything. Yep I think things are gonna waffle around quite a bit I doubt this is locked in. Could very well end up good still down in OR. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Would love to see Queen GEM get the win, but we know King EURO is going to tie it up with some BDSM. 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, nwsnow said: I'm expecting the ICON and GEM to cave by tonight. We know it is pretty unlikely that we can get enough of an arctic push to suppress the pacific that much. The GFS outcome currently is probably the best semi realistic thing for PDX but I think this is gonna end up being an OLM and north event. Once that north trend happens, it doesn't reverse much. Hoping this is just a blip and everything ends up great. But judging by our luck lately... "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, nwsnow said: I'm expecting the ICON and GEM to cave by tonight. We know it is pretty unlikely that we can get enough of an arctic push to suppress the pacific that much. The GFS outcome currently is probably the best semi realistic thing for PDX but I think this is gonna end up being an OLM and north event. Once that north trend happens, it doesn't reverse much. Well at least PDX preserves the goose egg and is set up nicely for 21-22'. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: Would love to see Queen GEM get the win, but we know King EURO is going to tie it up with some BDSM. You and me both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Save us EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Can’t imagine the psychological stress for PDX folks right now. Don’t even live there but I’m anxious just watching 1 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Requiem said: Hoping this is just a blip and everything ends up great. But judging by our luck lately... There's still time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Well even I am a little concerned with just how north things have trended...The lows will probably come in north of Vancouver Island on the next Euro run! Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 I would be a bit nervous if I lived in Medford right now with these trends 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 I need a meditative walk now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Phil said: Can’t imagine the psychological stress for PDX folks right now. Don’t even live there but I’m anxious just watching Meh, don't worry. This is pretty typical. We're used to it now. https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 This works right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: I would be a bit nervous if I lived in Medford right now with these trends I’m nervous and in Puyallup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Phil said: Can’t imagine the psychological stress for PDX folks right now. Don’t even live there but I’m anxious just watching certainly a pretty big mental ef, i dont recall seeing such a discrepancy in models this close. GEM shows highs in the single digits and the euro in the 40's.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, umadbro said: Meh, don't worry. This is pretty typical. We're used to it now. I’d be a wreck. Pulling for u guys. Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Phil said: Can’t imagine the psychological stress for PDX folks right now. Don’t even live there but I’m anxious just watching I’m in Seattle and I’m anxious af right now after seeing this. Don’t really want to be at the bullseye this far out still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, MossMan said: Well even I am a little concerned with just how north things have trended...The lows will probably come in north of Vancouver Island on the next Euro run! Lol everyone always assumes the worst it’s one run. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, Timmy said: certainly a pretty big mental ef, i dont recall seeing such a discrepancy in models this close. GEM shows highs in the single digits and the euro in the 40's.. At the same time wouldn’t take much for euro to shift back a little south but not counting on it. "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, Jginmartini said: I need a meditative walk now 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Requiem said: At the same time wouldn’t take much for euro to shift back a little south but not counting on it. tonight's suite will be the superbowl of model runs this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Requiem said: At the same time wouldn’t take much for euro to shift back a little south but not counting on it. Wouldn’t be the first time the Euro overdid offshore digging. 1 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 I sense another National Guard situation for North Bend. 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 This big ice pellet shower should help cool the ground and get it even more primed for what’s coming! I fueled up both vehicles this morning (that go out in the snow) and filled all my gas cans for the generator and plow...LETS DO THIS! 1 1 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: This works right? Looks like the horse guy on the coast is the big winner. 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 I feel really bad for TWL. We were taking early this morning after the 06z and he was elated. Now he ll be waking up to a disaster. 1 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 That first system on Thursday sets everything up after that. The rain snow line doesn’t shift at all after that. Someone is going to win big over the next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 It is Sunday. Systems aren't arriving until Thursday. Whoever thinks that the models won't shift 10 more times between now and then is crazy!! 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 im not sure im mentally prepared for EPS Tim maps. We need more puppies! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 My eyes and neck hurt from staring at my phone so much the last two days... Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, SalemDuck said: That first system on Thursday sets everything up after that. The rain snow line doesn’t shift at all after that. Someone is going to win big over the next week Must be some cold onshore flow at some point late in the run because somehow I end up in the pink, but I know it doesn’t happen this week. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, Phil said: Can’t imagine the psychological stress for PDX folks right now. Don’t even live there but I’m anxious just watching Not gonna lie, pretty D**n disappointed. The last 3 12z runs from the Euro. The trend is pretty undeniable. Really need that trough to dig a bit more SW to stop these systems from surging northward but I know better than to bet against the euro in this range. Going by the usual track record here in these situations, I'd say we are probably screwed here. Frustrating going from a legit arctic outbreak with a frigid Columbia basin to SW wind and 50s. PDX still paying for 1/10/2017? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, nwsnow said: Not gonna lie, pretty D**n disappointed. The last 3 12z runs from the Euro. The trend is pretty undeniable. Really need that trough to dig a bit more SW to stop these systems from surging northward but I know better than to bet against the euro in this range. Going by the usual track record here in these situations, I'd say we are probably screwed here. Frustrating going from a legit arctic outbreak with a frigid Columbia basin to SW wind and 50s. PDX still paying for 1/10/2017? So now the 5-6 day maps are gospel because they show things shifting a bit?? No way man, time to relax and see how things go. Everything is still on the table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, nwsnow said: Not gonna lie, pretty D**n disappointed. The last 3 12z runs from the Euro. The trend is pretty undeniable. Really need that trough to dig a bit more SW to stop these systems from surging northward but I know better than to bet against the euro in this range. Going by the usual track record here in these situations, I'd say we are probably screwed here. Frustrating going from a legit arctic outbreak with a frigid Columbia basin to SW wind and 50s. PDX still paying for 1/10/2017? I can’t think of a time a trend like this reversed within 5 days? The only saving grace is the EURO is the most aggressive. Though the 12Z GFS was a huge cave. If the GEM caves tonight and the northern trend continues then I think we have our answer. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Temp down to 37. Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 12Z EPS is following the ECMWF... reaching farther to the NW with that lobe and warmer air coming northward by Thursday morning. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, nwsnow said: Not gonna lie, pretty D**n disappointed. The last 3 12z runs from the Euro. The trend is pretty undeniable. Really need that trough to dig a bit more SW to stop these systems from surging northward but I know better than to bet against the euro in this range. Going by the usual track record here in these situations, I'd say we are probably screwed here. Frustrating going from a legit arctic outbreak with a frigid Columbia basin to SW wind and 50s. PDX still paying for 1/10/2017? I think it was mentioned yesterday at one point that we had completely paid off our 2013-2018 run down here. Gotta wait for December for that. Dave Ramsey told us to make double payments early on but of course no one listened... 1 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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