February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[jakerepp]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

Lock it in!

Would be a whole lot of happy people were this to verify...nobody from the southern reaches of the Portland metro to the border would complain. 

[Fircrest]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Lock it in!

I'm fine with that!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Requiem said:

I woke up hoping the models would be an better agreement... apparently not lol. Still seems like anyone’s game at this point though odds are that it’s gonna be a Portland north event.

Yes, I would say things are overall going the way we thought they would go. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Make the decision based on the 12z EURO! 

That was my plan.

[wxmet]

13 minutes ago, wxmet said:

12z GFS is handling the trough coming down the B.C. more similarly to the ECMWF. There are some slight timing issues which result in differences with the Pacific system but the GFS looks like it’s trending towards the ECMWF. 

The easiest way to see this is to look at the 500 mb vorticity map from the GFS 00z to 12z. Each run pushes the B.C. trough axis further back.

[OysterPrintout]

Looking at the meteograms for the 6z runs for pdx odds look something like

Euro: 60% bust 40% something 20% something good/great

GFS 50% bust 50% something 33% something good/great

 

Not ideal but we're still hanging in there.

[TT-SEA]

Snow in the valley as well...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

February looks to be a cold month nationally. Just not here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX running a healthy +2.1 departure on the month. 

[Perturbed Member]

UKMET brings the low in at the mouth of the Columbia. Near perfect for SEA and areas north. Still gets it done in PDX due to the gorge but cutting it close. See 00z from last night below which brought it in by the central OR coast, quite a shift north.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Snowing lightly.  Looks like a little CZ fired up over me.

[jakerepp]

Just had a quick shower of some mixed precip. Looks like a little more off to the west a bit. 

[SalemDuck]

GEFS low locations for Thursday. So many of these are south (even for PDX). Really interesting battle just over 3 days out.

[snow_wizard]

The one thing that's becoming pretty clear is the 500mb pattern is not going to be the thing to look at this week.  For example the UKMET gets pretty bad looking on the 500mb and yet Seattle and Portland both get slammed with a lot of snow.  Goes to show how enormous pools of cold air can make up for a less than perfect pattern.

Right now I think Thursday has a great shot at being quite something for Seattle.  The GFS is dry, but a number of other models show us getting hit pretty had.

[TT-SEA]

Some sun breaking through here.

[jakerepp]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Some sun breaking through here.

Beautiful morning up there!

[Timmy Supercell]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Nice shot TT. Always got cool views from your place. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Well it definitely looks like this upcoming week is pretty much guaranteed to be our best cold snap in 2 years. Should have several days in western WA with highs in the low to mid 30s. It’s also looking pretty good for atleast getting a small snow event at some point this week/weekend...maybe even a decent snow event. Should be our best event in a couple years...much better than nothing. I’d definitely be upset if I was in Oregon but hard to be upset if you live in western WA very high odds of some cold and a bit of snow this week. 

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

February looks to be a cold month nationally. Just not here. 

Cold in a lot of other places too.  Could be a cold month collectively for the entire northern hemisphere.  Would love to see that.

[Perturbed Member]

18 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

GEFS low locations for Thursday. So many of these are south (even for PDX). Really interesting battle just over 3 days out.

At least none of them really show a low racing up way north to BC. Would hope to avoid anything making landfall north of the Columbia. Not too sure what to think about the 12z GFS which went way south, probably an outlier.

The last Euro was actually decently far south with the low. Will just have to watch for the 12z euro. More worried about the euro just not bringing down enough cold air.

[TacomaWaWx]

Managed a low of 31 here...no precipitation overnight and up to 37. Can’t wait to see the details work themselves out...still not a clear picture but the ingredients are there for something good here in the Puget sound this week. 

[Brennan]

The month of February will be dominated by Cold NE flow coming out of the Fraser. I can see Whatcom County being near or below freezing for the better part of 2 weeks. 

[TacomaWaWx]

 I’d say odds in the Puget sound region of 1-3” of snow are about 80% with a 50% chance of something in the 3-6” range. Models definitely show us getting atleast a few days of high temps upper 20s to mid 30s...that’s pretty much guaranteed at this point. Snow will come at some point wether it be multiple systems later this week or overrunning at the end. Odds are very good here in western WA...we just don’t know the exact details yet.

[paulb/eugene]

I say no thanks to 1.6” of ice for Eugene on GEM model

[snow_wizard]

Big league cold in BC.  Currently 18 in Lytton, -25 in Prince George, -31 at Fort Nelson, and Watson Lake (just barely into the Yukon) is currently a toasty -50.

Going to get really cold in Bellingham soon!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Let's go King EURO!

[Perturbed Member]

We'll see the 12z Euro here shortly but I did notice the 06z Euro seemed to be further south with the low?

Here was the 00z at the same time

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Big league cold in BC.  Currently 18 in Lytton, -25 in Prince George, -31 at Fort Nelson, and Watson Lake (just barely into the Yukon) is currently a toasty -50.

Going to get really cold in Bellingham soon!

BLI-YWL near -11mb, OMK-YKA around -8mb.

[Timmy Supercell]

1 hour ago, MWG said:

I still have some hope at the end of February. Looking back at pictures it seems most of the significant events for Medford is at the end of February.

 

 

A couple of times it has snowed through the entirety of February (2019, 2012) but yes probably my most notable events and 3-day totals tend to be at the end of Feb going into March.

02/25-27 2019 - 10" (3 day)
02/28-03/01 2012 - 9.75" (3 day)
02/23-24 2011 - 8.5" (2 day)
One exception to this rule was in 2017 I had a quick 6.6" fall early on Feb 7.

Nothing from the 17-18 winter was very noteworthy in K-Falls as I had no individual day over 3", much like this winter so far. But that'll change I think.

[bainbridgekid]

Noticed that the UKIE had a massive snowstorm for Western Washington on Thursday. Showed over a foot for Seattle in 24 hours.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Andrew M]

Euro shifting south it appears

[Gradient Keeper]

Snow for Randy. I think?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Trend on most models is to not bring as much cold air into the Columbia basin. So the low may track further south, but becomes a bit of a moot point. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Some snow around the North Sound on Wednesday AM.

Great to see!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[Jesse]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Trend on most models is to not bring as much cold air into the Columbia basin. So the low may track further south, but becomes a bit of a moot point. 

The Dalles got down to like -20c at 850mb on the 12z GFS...

[snow_wizard]

Looks like this run will be really snowy for the Puget Sound region.  Two moisture sources converging.  The area north of Seattle does pretty well on Wednesday from an apparent Arctic front.

[Gradient Keeper]

4 AM Thursday arctic air trying to spill south into the Columbia Basin