PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, gusky said:

I honestly don't get why we still put as much faith into the GFS as we do. It's just not very good.

Because is shows more pretty colors! 

[RentonHill]

5 minutes ago, gusky said:

I honestly don't get why we still put as much faith into the GFS as we do. It's just not very good.

because its run 4 times a day out to 16 days and shows crazy

[FroYoBro]

I’m absolutely soaked and freezing cold after 5 hours of walking dogs in this weather. The temperature has steadily been dropping since morning with this rain. Now just below 40 degrees. Feels like we were actually close to some surprise snow in the area this afternoon. 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Interesting…HRDPS actually increases totals for quite a few areas 

And decreases my area haha! All of these snow maps are all over the freaking place! 

[jakerepp]

7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

That was only through 7PM tonight in order to help illustrate my point. Here's through tomorrow morning.

Most significant reduction in the EPSL. Easterlies picking up?

[Clancy MT DW9972]

1 hour ago, Kayla said:

Not even some backdoor cold on ~20th? Bold prediction...

I'm feeling a 2014 type event for PDX by late Jan/early Feb.

Hey Kayla!  What did your total precipitation end up being for 2021?  I wound up at 14.50" which isnt terrible, but not that great either. lol

[TacomaWaWx]

Holding steady at 37. We’re still right on the edge of snow mixing in. 

[RentonHill]

7 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Most significant reduction in the EPSL. Easterlies picking up?

just rain

[Esquimalt]

8 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Interesting…HRDPS actually increases totals for quite a few areas 

10 inches over my house. Gfs and wrf shows 10 as well. Euro shows 3. Who to believe lol

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF shows the warm nose reaching my area by 7 p.m... 

[jakerepp]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Probably because it turns the snow into this for the EPSL tomorrow morning...

Gross!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Esquimalt said:

10 inches over my house. Gfs and wrf shows 10 as well. Euro shows 3. Who to believe lol

Go with the EURO. All those models showed about 15-20" here on Monday and we got 4". What it means is you will do pretty well. 

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Yup, easterlies going to screw us over again. Surprise surprise. 

What causes that warm nose? I thought easterlies were supposed to help us

[FroYoBro]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

We are listing our house for sale at the end of this month with the hopes of being out of here by the end of February at the latest. Can't come soon enough.

Give this man a weenie react. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

17 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Interesting…HRDPS actually increases totals for quite a few areas 

Can you show a Eastern WA map 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

We are listing our house for sale at the end of this month with the hopes of being out of here by the end of February at the latest. Can't come soon enough.

Awesome,  where you going

[ShawniganLake]

18 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Interesting…HRDPS actually increases totals for quite a few areas 

16” here. 
 

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Snow starting here.  NWS says this storm for Wenatchee could be the biggest in 25 years.  Maybe a foot for Wenatchee?  

For here, I am guessing 18+ inches.  WRF ensemble mean says 20+.   And that is on top of a 20 inch plus base.  Highest resolution 1.3 k models say 30, but that would break the all time record for here, which is 28 inches, though maybe higher if it started or ended on one side or another or midnight.

http://inlandnorthwestweather.blogspot.com/2022/01/wenatchee-leavenworth-to-get-buried-in.html?m=1

 

[Hawksfan2008]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Most likely downsloping effects, but someone feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

I've come to find out that east winds are generally a hindrance for snow and not a positive. Sure, it might help us hold on to snow for an extra hour with just the right scenario but more often than not they have screwed us over. Whether it be making the air too dry, or downsloping, or cold air too shallow... Just so many ways that it can hurt instead of help. 

It really depends on the area. I’ve only lived in North Bend for a year but it’s certainly helped more than it’s hurt. Even when we got less precip last February we had massive snow drifts and blizzard conditions. It was a blast. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

Sometimes worth remembering that we’re simply farther south and have a warmer climate than say, NW WA.

That doesn't change the fact that it's alarming that we haven't had a sub-freezing high in over 5 years.

Bad news folks...these conditions are gonna keep creeping north by the year...

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

What causes that warm nose? I thought easterlies were supposed to help us

Not exactly sure... but it happens fairly frequently in the foothills.   I know Andrew has mentioned it happening in his area in the past when his area warms up and Salem is still cold.    Easterlies aren't going to help much tonight given its 28 degrees at Snoqualmie Pass.

[GHweatherChris]

35° degrees and a decent rain/snow mix happening in downtown Aberdeen, hoepfully it will be snowing good at home when we get back in an hour or so.

[Meatyorologist]

6 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

What causes that warm nose? I thought easterlies were supposed to help us

@hawkstwelve It's actually looks like southerlies a bit.... Would need to look closer. Weathermodels.com is frustratingly limited. No wind barbs even at 10m view. No 925mb winds either. Honestly a tossup unless someone with a WxBell subscription chimes in with a 925mb wind map at 03z/7pm tonight.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

I'm just so sick and tired of the rain. I'm tired of having to constantly hope and wish for the best outcome in order to score, when it rarely works out. I'm tired of seeing many other areas in the PNW score large winter storm totals while we have to do handstands, cartwheels, and backflips in order to get an inch. I'm just so beyond tired of this climate.

I realize how the above makes me sound considering I'm coming out of a period with 13+ inches and snow cover for a week+ but I'm just done with it all. Ready for a big change.

So, yes, I am being a giant weenie. I'll be the first to admit it. Feel free to throw all the weenies at me.

I agree with everything.  I've lived this nightmare my entire life, make a change now don't wait till your 50 like me. It just gets harder. If you love winter weather like me this area we live in is a nightmare most of the time. 

[BLI snowman]

24 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

I’m absolutely soaked and freezing cold after 5 hours of walking dogs in this weather. The temperature has steadily been dropping since morning with this rain. Now just below 40 degrees. Feels like we were actually close to some surprise snow in the area this afternoon. 

It's a nasty day. Temps are performing close to or a tiny better better than expected down here, which should bode well for northern areas later once the precip rates pick up.

[MossMan]

34 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

That was only through 7PM tonight in order to help illustrate my point. Here's through tomorrow morning.

Ahhh sorry I just saw that map and flipped out without reading. 

[Omegaraptor]

Glad we’re finally seeing a break in the rain soon. If this keeps up at this rate the Marys River is probably going to be up to Reser Stadium in a week or two.

[Deweydog]

28 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

I’m absolutely soaked and freezing cold after 5 hours of walking dogs in this weather. The temperature has steadily been dropping since morning with this rain. Now just below 40 degrees. Feels like we were actually close to some surprise snow in the area this afternoon. 

Any pics of the dogs? Feels like we may need some puppies around here pretty soon.

[TacomaWaWx]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Surface and 925 winds are easterly/ESE at 7PM.

Must be downslope warming. 

[WildrootParables]

Snowing here! Just came up from Port Orchard where it's raining, but here at home it's moderate snow. Started 20-30 minutes ago. 

[weatherweenie]

6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I'm just so sick and tired of the rain. I'm tired of having to constantly hope and wish for the best outcome in order to score, when it rarely works out. I'm tired of seeing many other areas in the PNW score large winter storm totals while we have to do handstands, cartwheels, and backflips in order to get an inch. I'm just so beyond tired of this climate.

I realize how the above makes me sound considering I'm coming out of a period with 13+ inches and snow cover for a week+ but I'm just done with it all. Ready for a big change.

So, yes, I am being a giant weenie. I'll be the first to admit it. Feel free to throw all the weenies at me.

I totally get it.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Down to 37 lots of flakes mixing in here a little colder than I expected this afternoon 

[SnowWillarrive]

5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Absolutely depends on the area. I should have mentioned that more prominently.

North Bend seems to get the better end of the easterlies deal. More of the positives without the negatives. The same cannot be said for the Maple Valley area based on the past three winters I've experienced here. Jim will be quick to point out that it can definitely help here too (and I have experienced that once or twice) but 98% of the time it has not been a welcome thing here.

Eastern King County suburbs definitely fared better though in this recent round of snow. We are one of the few places with snow still on the ground. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

10 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I'm just so sick and tired of the rain. I'm tired of having to constantly hope and wish for the best outcome in order to score, when it rarely works out. I'm tired of seeing many other areas in the PNW score large winter storm totals while we have to do handstands, cartwheels, and backflips in order to get an inch. I'm just so beyond tired of this climate.

I realize how the above makes me sound considering I'm coming out of a period with 13+ inches and snow cover for a week+ but I'm just done with it all. Ready for a big change.

So, yes, I am being a giant weenie. I'll be the first to admit it. Feel free to throw all the weenies at me.

I hear you.  One of the reasons I moved to Leavenworth.  A good friend has family in Sioux Falls.  They love the area, so many parks.  They do get good snowfalls, but often they come with high winds.

[FroYoBro]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Any pics of the dogs? Feels like we may need some puppies around here pretty soon.

I have hundreds of pictures, but shouldn't share them publicly without permission from the owners. I found this one online though. Might help. 

[KingstonWX]

Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I hear you.  One of the reasons I moved to Leavenworth.  A good friend has family in Sioux Falls.  They love the area, so many parks.  They do get good snowfalls, but often they come with high winds.

I reeeeeaaaaally wish I went to my Cabin up Chumstick for this event. Looks like it's going to be absolutely insane between Plain and Leavenworth. 

[jakerepp]

12 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I'm just so sick and tired of the rain. I'm tired of having to constantly hope and wish for the best outcome in order to score, when it rarely works out. I'm tired of seeing many other areas in the PNW score large winter storm totals while we have to do handstands, cartwheels, and backflips in order to get an inch. I'm just so beyond tired of this climate.

I realize how the above makes me sound considering I'm coming out of a period with 13+ inches and snow cover for a week+ but I'm just done with it all. Ready for a big change.

So, yes, I am being a giant weenie. I'll be the first to admit it. Feel free to throw all the weenies at me.

I'm with you there. I want a consistent 30+'' of snow a year dang it.

[MossMan]

Just now, KingstonWX said:

I reeeeeaaaaally wish I went to my Cabin up Chumstick for this event. Looks like it's going to be absolutely insane between Plain and Leavenworth. 

Wished I had packed up the family and went to my uncles summer place just up from Orondo on the Columbia River. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

7 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Glad we’re finally seeing a break in the rain soon. If this keeps up at this rate the Marys River is probably going to be up to Reser Stadium in a week or two.

Now you see how terrible it is down here...

46F and pouring all day. Hopefully this helps keep the fires at bay during the coming inferno summer.