PNW September 2022 Wx Obs/Disc

[TT-SEA]

One other note... last spring when it would not stop raining there was a permanent ridge over Alaska.  I remember being hopeful seeing model runs that took that ridge away in the long range and put a ridge over the PNW... but as it got closer in time the ridge over Alaska always won and the trough over the PNW stayed in place.  

Since about middle to late June its been the complete opposite.    Permanent troughing over Alaska.   

Watching the models right now feels the same except in reverse.   Also makes me think that when it flips we might have an October - December like 2012. 

[Randyc321]

16 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Severe clear on the final day of the Oregon State Fair. 

Funny.  I helped shear two alpacas on Monday.  That was a wild experience.

[Tyler Mode]

47 this morning.

[TT-SEA]

Per the 00Z ECMWF... Saturday is the day to watch for high fire danger.   Wind comes back around to onshore on Sunday.

[LowerGarfield]

A cool morning here. Slowly warmining but it was in the mid 50s around 7am says my spouse. Currently at 63 and in the morning my weather station tends to run slightly warmer since it is east facing.

[Randyc321]

9 hours ago, Phil said:

Randy craves seasonal extremes but lives in a climate that doesn’t really have them.  

You have seen his snow totals right?

[MossMan]

48 this morning. 

[Skagit Weather]

Dropped to 46F this morning. Coolest since June 24th.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensembles still showing we move towards a much more typical pattern around the 13th. 

[MossMan]

25 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

You have seen his snow totals right?

Meh…Could be better…

Edited September 6, 2022 by MossMan

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another hellish morning in Redding, CA. 88 with SMOkE.

[kokaneekidz]

I saw my breath this morning walking out the door. Oh how I love the crisper air and best sleeping weather in months.!!!

[Doinko]

[TT-SEA]

Models have been shifting the hurricane slight north and east over the last few runs... and the 12Z GFS brings significant rain into SoCal by Friday and Saturday.

 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I think those maps are automated on weekends and holidays.    

FWIW... the 00Z EPS was warm in the 10-15 day period.    Particularly from WA northward.

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Models have been shifting the hurricane slight north and east over the last few runs... and the 12Z GFS brings significant rain into SoCal by Friday and Saturday.

 

Has there been a hurricane yet this szn? It has been super quiet 

[TT-SEA]

[TT-SEA]

We lived in San Diego back in September 1997 when Hurricane Nora weakened to a tropical storm but moved right up into southern CA.     We had heavy rain at our house to the northeast of San Diego.     That was a super Nino year and it seems like its more likely to happen with a Nino... making this all the more strange.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS brings in the weak trough offshore faster than the other models... similar to its 00Z run.    Looks like it comes with a convective outbreak over the Cascades on Sunday on this run as it pulls up some of that tropical moisture.

 

[TT-SEA]

As the ECMWF has been showing... there is just no low clouds anywhere this morning.   Even offshore.    Not much smoke either.   At least not yet.  

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is wetter on Tuesday as well compared to its 00Z run.   This run is definitely more aggressive with the troughing early next week.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Smokey crap in NE Oregon. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Next week still looking a lot cooler, but mostly dry. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Per the 00Z ECMWF... Saturday is the day to watch for high fire danger.   Wind comes back around to onshore on Sunday.

They're already onshore here on this graphic so this is not a regional issue for now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX may hit their record dry streak. 

[Kayla]

7 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

They're already onshore here on this graphic so this is not a regional issue for now.

It's definitely a regional concern for Friday and Saturday.

[Doinko]

Today is the 62nd day with no rain tying 1984, and 1967 is first at 71 so it seems reasonable that PDX will get there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This looks so pleasant. A ways offfffff. 

[Omegaraptor]

Right before landing at PDX.

Holy shitt, actual terrain! We really do take our mountains out west for granted. Chicago’s a wonderful city… but it’s VERY flat.

Although you’re not as close up flying over the Wyoming Tetons and Wind River Range is surreal. Gotta go there someday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Kayla said:

It's definitely a regional concern for Friday and Saturday.

They look pretty strong just to our east... Good news is there isn't much left to burn up there...

[Kayla]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

They look pretty strong just to our east... Good news is there isn't much left to burn up there...

True...Friday afternoon is particularly concerning for the Northern Cascades. Pretty significant downsloping event being shown. Stay alert my friend.

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, Kayla said:

It's definitely a regional concern for Friday and Saturday.

Crap... did not even look at Friday.    That is not good.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Crap... did not even look at Friday.    That is not good.

Still, better 15 mph than 30+.

[TT-SEA]

New ECMWF weeklies run (through the 3rd week of October) wants to default right back to the same pattern we have been seeing after a troughy period in the middle of September.

[GobBluth]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Models have been shifting the hurricane slight north and east over the last few runs... and the 12Z GFS brings significant rain into SoCal by Friday and Saturday.

 

Doing a three day trip to San Diego early next week. Being in the throes of a tropical storm wasn't on my bingo card.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

50 minutes ago, Kayla said:

It's definitely a regional concern for Friday and Saturday.

Ah ok, the bottom of this one got cut off. The Washington map typically can see as far south as northern Douglas County. Here's the one for this part of the region.

Looks like at hour 105 it is indeed offshore for a bit.

[Kayla]

29 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Still, better 15 mph than 30+.

These maps are showing sustained winds. Winds will likely be gusting 30+ at face value. 

[Deweydog]

35-45 mph gusts are definitely a possibility down here in the usual spots Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.

[GobBluth]

Hot take - the 95-97 high Portland gets on Saturday will be the most comfortable hot temp of the summer, if the east winds materialize.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

Hot take - the 95-97 high Portland gets on Saturday will be the most comfortable hot temp of the summer, if the east winds materialize.

That sounds HOT.