Gradient Keeper Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 Just now, SouthHillFrosty said: MBG. This is the winter without snow or rain Never! Thou shalt not use the MBG in blasphemy! 00z ECMWF in 10 hours 44 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 We know drama... 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: We got ourselves a real old fashion model battle brewing here! My bet is on the Europeans... they are better at this. Phil has harped on the GFS being trash. It was trash for Ian too 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 Yes plox 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 43 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said: Fear not my friends. Winter is coming. That’s just a generic La Niña forecast. Nothing has been close to generic Niña conditions in recent months. We could easily be in store for a “dud La Niña” that ends up being on the dry and mild side. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 Boston sunrise and Logan carpet. Looks like storms are moving in here. Hoping to get out before they scramble air traffic. Gonna be close. 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 EC gets there. WB wasn't working for me for a bit. Looks like this has less for here than pivotal. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
May Grey Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 Orcutt has seen more rain than Seattle so far starting from September 1st! Everything here is very green with the anomalous 2.1" rain event last month! Usually, it's still brown and very dry. Orcutt: 2.18" Seattle: 0.13" 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: That’s just a generic La Niña forecast. Nothing has been close to generic Niña conditions in recent months. We could easily be in store for a “dud La Niña” that ends up being on the dry and mild side. I bet you're fun at parties! 1 3 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 I'm headed up to Calgary next week for work. was hoping it was already 'cold' nope 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 Just now, Kayla said: I bet you're fun at parties! It wasn't meant to get cooler til the end of the month and then Nov-Feb will be exciting. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 the coldest wx of the season will be just before Thanksgiving and late January - early Feb bank it! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, Kayla said: I bet you're fun at parties! I am. I swear it! 00z GFS in 8 hours 19 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Cloud said: At least it doesn't smell like burnt woods compared to yesterday. lol. A PLUS! It sure smells like that here. The smoke is as bad as ever today. 63 degrees. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 We are pathetically model riding for rain. How things have changed. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: the coldest wx of the season will be just before Thanksgiving and late January - early Feb bank it! This is the kind of positivity we need. We're gonna make the playoffs this year. Only question is how deep? A regional snow event is pretty much a Super Bowl. 3 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 Ah the lovely smoke is back...filling us up like a bathtub. AQI at 187 and conditions are continuing to deteriorate. Headache and seizures starting up. 2 1 3 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Requiem Posted October 13, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 Predicting a massive blizzard in January that buries everyone from Medford up to Bellingham with various quantities of snow along with white-out conditions and the strongest easterly winds experienced in this region 7 3 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 18 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: That’s just a generic La Niña forecast. Nothing has been close to generic Niña conditions in recent months. We could easily be in store for a “dud La Niña” that ends up being on the dry and mild side. Probably true but he's run this in prior years with La Nina signal with variations of what I'd see as generic La Nina. It is interesting that it paints Jan as a potential bullseye for this winter which has been absent recently. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 34 minutes ago, Kayla said: Understandably, everyone is extremely anxious for a pattern change. Totally get it. I've been on this board for something like ten plus years now and it still never ceases to amaze me how quickly the mood changes on here with literally EVERY model run! This has literally been the worst stretch of weather ever here. On the plus side I have used it to get back into the best running shape that I've been in in years. Probably dating back to 2010 or so. Analog? 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 1 2 3 1 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, Requiem said: Predicting a massive blizzard in January that buries everyone from Medford up to Bellingham with various quantities of snow along with white-out conditions and the strongest easterly winds experienced in this region I wonder, is it genuinely possible to meet blizzard criteria throughout the entire Willamette Valley at once? Some portions of the Portland area probably can, this area got there according to the COOP station there during December 1968 probably from downsloping off of the west hills. I would assume exposed areas in the west hills and east metro could definitely see thpse conditions as well. Not sure what setup could bring blizzard conditions to the rest of the valley though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonny Summers Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Snownerd3000 said: Fear not my friends. Winter is coming. Of course the East Coast gets above average snowfall in January. Please wait while I grab my barf bag. images.mp4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christensen87 Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 18 minutes ago, Requiem said: Predicting a massive blizzard in January that buries everyone from Medford up to Bellingham with various quantities of snow along with white-out conditions and the strongest easterly winds experienced in this region Christmas Eve 1983 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 27 minutes ago, Winterdog said: It sure smells like that here. The smoke is as bad as ever today. 63 degrees. Much to the delight of @Rubus Leucodermis, it is very smoky and campfire smelly here in Whatcom County. Currently 67 IMBY. Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 At this stage, there is literally nothing that seriously disproves the notion that we may be in the opening stages of a severe regional drought that lasts a year or more. There’s nothing that proves that notion, either, of course. It’s mostly a hunch based on how we are so much out of classic La Niña patterns in this region, and that this may well persist. It may be an effect of Hunga Tonga; who knows. Regardless, I am not going to put much faith in models that show pattern changes always happening 10+ days out. It could easily be mid/late November before the RRR relents and (temporarily, at least) lets some moisture in. P.S. Hope you all enjoy my new (at least for today; will probably change it back soon) profile pic. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 30 minutes ago, Winterdog said: It sure smells like that here. The smoke is as bad as ever today. 63 degrees. Oh yeah can definitely smell it now as the day progresses. It’s nasty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 Funny how your body knows… Sunny and 72 at noon on 10/13 feels oppressive. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 14 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: Is it raccoon weather yet? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: At this stage, there is literally nothing that seriously disproves the notion that we may be in the opening stages of a severe regional drought. There’s nothing that proves that notion, either, of course. It’s mostly a hunch based on how we are so much out of classic La Niña patterns in this region, and that this may well persist. It may be an effect of Hunga Tonga; who knows. Regardless, I am not going to put much faith in models that show pattern changes always happening 10+ days out. It could easily be mid/late November before the RRR relents and (temporarily, at least) lets some moisture in. P.S. Hope you all enjoy my new (at least for today; will probably change it back soon) profile pic. This reads like some weird AI program that used comments from Jesse, Tim, and maybe some Phil to generate its composite algo. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 Just now, RentonHillTC said: This reads like some weird AI program that used comments from Jesse, Tim, and maybe some Phil to generate its composite algo. I used only one acronym in my post. No way could it be the output of an AI trained by Phil’s posts. 2 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonny Summers Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 1 1 4 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 46 minutes ago, Winterdog said: It sure smells like that here. The smoke is as bad as ever today. 63 degrees. Yeah I was just going to say…It’s horrible up here. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said: lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 Fun fact: Euro is showing no sub-50°F minima at PDX for the next week or more… but it does show one 60°F low! 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonny Summers Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Fun fact: Euro is showing no sub-50°F minima at PDX for the next week or more… but it does show one 60°F low! Warm and wet 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 34 minutes ago, Doiinko said: I wonder, is it genuinely possible to meet blizzard criteria throughout the entire Willamette Valley at once? Some portions of the Portland area probably can, this area got there according to the COOP station there during December 1968 probably from downsloping off of the west hills. I would assume exposed areas in the west hills and east metro could definitely see thpse conditions as well. Not sure what setup could bring blizzard conditions to the rest of the valley though A cross-Cascade gradient would do it here. 2 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said: Warm and dry FTFY. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 13, 2022 Report Share Posted October 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Fun fact: Euro is showing no sub-50°F minima at PDX for the next week or more… but it does show one 60°F low! Even the one true non-UHI representative station in the whole PNW only shows a 49 in the next week! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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