Gradient Keeper Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall totals, including the southwestern US. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: A thing of beauty. If only this were at Day 3-5. Well said. It will be a long wait for this one but the 12Z was exciting too, along with recent GFS drinking binges. Some outflow on the 00Z ECMWF. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 00z ECMWF 10 Day Snowfall totals, including the southwestern US. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 I'm guessing there will be some snow in Seattle if the ECMWF and GFS are anywhere near right. The blast is more northerly than backdoor which is a good scenario for Seattle. 7 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
selkirks Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 Now add precip! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 I guess if I had to throw some analogs out there I would have to include 2000 also, although the blocking pattern in early December on that was further east. So with the years I've been looking at for various reason this is the list. 1916 1936 1942 1956 1971 1978 2000 All of those have major strengths, but some weaknesses as well. 3 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 39 minutes ago, MossMan said: It’s coming. Again. I think. Feels like this will likely be a close call but not quite on the arctic air. Probably some chilly onshore flow and even some lowland snow though. Hopefully Mother Nature will prove me wrong. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 Trough energy splits at Day 3.5, Kona low Day 4. Ridge develops Day 4.5 to 5, then slides east to ~160-155 W at Day 6.5. Day 7 ridge amplifies further with axis remaining at ~160-155 W and cold trough digs down over us. Seems like a plausible progression. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: What’s drifting? I hear that term a lot and I don’t understand the phenomenon. It's when the snow gets blown all over the place due to wind and cold and the snow is powdery enough. Think of a pile of snow that just blows away. It ends up somewhere and huge drifts can occur. I've never seen it happen in the Eugene area, although it did occur in Portland in 96 and it happens from time to time on the passes and in central Oregon. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyMaestro Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Gradient Keeper said: Day 9'er If the three main models are agreeing with this, is it really clown range at 9 days ahead? I'm ready to get excited but I don't want to get my heart broken 3 𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴, 𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯. 𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱. Reddit: HotlineMaestro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 Kind of weird how the ensembles are so reluctant to go nearly as cold as the operational models. Maybe they're just too "coarse" to pick up on it yet. 1 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 On another note is the wind in Corbett really THIS bad? https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=C2664&hours=72 I cannot imagine living in a place that constantly windy. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 23 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: On another note is the wind in Corbett really THIS bad? https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=C2664&hours=72 I cannot imagine living in a place that constantly windy. Pretty weak sauce for them. 1 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 34 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said: If the three main models are agreeing with this, is it really clown range at 9 days ahead? I'm ready to get excited but I don't want to get my heart broken Ensembles bottom out around -4C 850s so far. Best to keep your expectations in check 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 Just now, Deweydog said: Pretty weak sauce for them. I think there was a gust to 78 somewhere on that long list. It would take a special kind of person to live with that constant wind. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 6z GFS in 57 minutes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said: Ensembles bottom out around -4C 850s so far. Best to keep your expectations in check With all three models on board I wouldn't be so sure. That's what makes me puzzled on this. Usually when all three models are showing this ensembles agree. I've been kind of bullish on it for a while given the favorable MJO wave. Obviously too early to celebrate though. 2 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 36 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: With all three models on board I wouldn't be so sure. That's what makes me puzzled on this. Usually when all three models are showing this ensembles agree. I've been kind of bullish on it for a while given the favorable MJO wave. Obviously too early to celebrate though. Yeah. When all models show the similar trough energy splitting into the cut-off low at the same time, then Day 6-7 amplify the ridge with the mean axis ~160-155 W you have to wonder if something big is coming. Sometimes we see the ensembles play 'catch up' to the Op, but usually its the other way around which normally would lend less confidence for the much colder Op solutions. I think if the next few Op runs are unchanged with the pattern progression Day 4-7 that could change with the ensembles turning colder. I also notice the 00z GFS and 00z CMCE Analog Composite Day 11+ are in lock-step with each other the same positive anomaly axis, trough, and southeast US ridge. Very cold years popping up with December 2008 the #1 analog. It seems something is afoot. 12z GFS in 6 hours 22 minutes 12z ECMWF in 8 hours 32 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 I think this next cold snap is going to be better the fact that it’s happening a little later. Climo definitely would support a 1-3” event happening out of this. I would be happy with that. 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 6z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 Overnight GFS seems more realistic. 1 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Overnight GFS seems more realistic. Great run and mighty close to a real cold pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 Just now, Gradient Keeper said: Great run and mighty close to a real cold pattern. It's on the way. 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 Day 10-12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 6z GEFS Day 6 (Past 4 runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 Yay a cold weather record! Most days at or below freezing lows for November. 14 so far. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 6z GEFS definitely improved at least for the Gorge/Columbia Basin. Decent number of chilly members and surface temps indicate another cold pool is on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Cats Meow Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 With the ridge position and things rotating around it to the north and dropping south there will be a number of chances the goods make it west of the mountains. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 12z GFS in 1 hour 46 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 It's 11F and power is out for the entire town currently. Hurry up sunrise! 3 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Everleigh Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 34.5* and there is some wet stuff falling lightly from the sky.....Not sure what it is though, it's been so long since I've seen it, I have forgotten what it's called....*insert dramatic sigh* lolol Jokes aside, there is a light rain falling currently. Hooray! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 6 hours ago, snow_wizard said: On another note is the wind in Corbett really THIS bad? https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=C2664&hours=72 I cannot imagine living in a place that constantly windy. Crown Point hit 94mph a few days ago. Corbett doesn't get the brunt of the winds but it stays plenty windy. Home of Mark Nelsen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 8 hours ago, Chewbacca Defense said: Sandy Point? Yes, I heard the neighbors using that name although it’s rocky . Neighbor and I got along pretty good and he’s already invited me crabbing when I come up. 34* 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 Low of 36 this morning. Roads were wet on my drive to work in Tacoma but doesn’t look like it was measurable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 Dry driveway here... no rain overnight. Currently 42 and looks like its clearing up. 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 Monthly departures so far: Eugene: -6.0 Salem: -5.7 McMinnville: -4.3 Hillsboro: -5.1 Portland: -4.1 Olympia: -6.0 Seattle: -5.2 Bellingham: -6.7 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 15 minutes ago, Doinko said: Monthly departures so far: Eugene: -6.0 Salem: -5.7 McMinnville: -4.3 Hillsboro: -5.1 Portland: -4.1 Olympia: -6.0 Seattle: -5.2 Bellingham: -6.7 I’ve never experienced a -6 month in Portland. I wonder what it’s like? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: I’ve never experienced a -6 month in Portland. I wonder what it’s like? February 2019 did I think, same with January 2017 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 Wet deck. 3 3 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 Day 5! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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