November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[ShawniganLake]

Windy as heck here now. 60mph+ surge down the strait is underway. 

[Perturbance]

33 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Just 0.05" of rain here so far, but I have high hopes of scoring at least 0.5", or around 1/10 of what the models were showing a few days ago.

Steady rain started IMBY at 6:45 pm.  I've picked up .21" since then.  

[ShawniganLake]

And our power is out!  Again. 

[The Blob]

Good front down here.

[T-Town]

Tacoma Narrows just gusted to 56.  

[Cloud]

SEA clocked a 51mph gust. 

[lowlandsnow]

The NAM 00z shows about 2 inches of snow for Seattle on Monday night at temps that are below freezing

[Dave]

The rain and wind have arrived. I love it. 

[Cold Snap]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I've only had about 0.60" here today.  Very shadowed.  Interestingly rain shadows in the Central Puget Sound region during AR events are strongly associated with significant cold waves coming afterward.

I’ve noticed that too. Though with just AR’s in general. I feel like after about 50% of the AR events we get around here are almost always followed by cold and some snow.

[Doinko]

1.5" of rain on the day at PDX so far and still raining

[FroYoBro]

Up to 56 degrees which is the high for the day. Wind seems to be picking up again as well. 

[Skagit Weather]

23 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Windy as heck here now. 60mph+ surge down the strait is underway. 

Yep, just hit here as well. Went from pretty calm to some gusts in the 20s. It will be interesting to see how windy it gets here. I can get pretty hard from westerly surges, but this one looks to be oriented more to my south so we'll see.

[TacomaWx]

19 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Tacoma Narrows just gusted to 56.  

Not surprising at all…lights have been flickering here and we’ve gotten some pretty strong gusts. 

[Dave]

The coastal mountains west of Eugene have a very low elevation compared to most of the PNW. No rain shadowing for us. 

[MossMan]

Still calm here with dribbles. 3.03” on the day.  

[GHweatherChris]

4.65" rain total for today.

[TT-SEA]

Only 1.25 inches in North Bend today.    Not much wind here... 58 and it's stopped raining. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Warm air has been a no-show here so far. Down to 45.9˚F after a max of 46.4 half an hour ago.

[MossMan]

53 degrees 

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Do you seriously believe this pattern will hold and they won't have their fun?

Uh, pretty sure we just had about 10-12 weeks of unabated historic torching and ridging. We're not exactly due for a huge pattern flip again right away.

[Perturbed Member]

The significant shadowing around HIO on the 1.33km WRF does not look like it will be verifying, fortunately. Been moderate to heavy rain around here for hours. Loving it. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Quiet so far, but:

8:30 PM PDT Friday 04 November 2022
Wind warning in effect for:

• Metro Vancouver - central including the City of Vancouver Burnaby and New Westminster
• Metro Vancouver - North Shore including West Vancouver and North Vancouver
• Metro Vancouver - northeast including Coquitlam and Maple Ridge
• Metro Vancouver - southeast including Surrey and Langley
• Metro Vancouver - southwest including Richmond and Delta

Strong northwesterly winds are developing this evening.

Locations: Metro Vancouver, East Vancouver Island, Southern Gulf Islands, Sunshine Coast.

Wind speeds: Northwesterly 70 gusting to 90 km/h, with the highest winds near the waters.

When: Tonight.

Remarks: In the wake of a Pacific frontal system, strong northwesterly winds of 70 gusting to 90 km/h are developing this evening. Thunderstorms are also possible.

The winds are expected to ease overnight.

Damage to buildings, such as to roof shingles and windows, may occur. Loose objects may be tossed by the wind and cause injury or damage. High winds may result in power outages and fallen tree branches.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to BCstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #BCStorm.

[Blizzard777]

Lights flickering here as well

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

The significant shadowing around HIO on the 1.33km WRF does not look like it will be verifying, fortunately. Been moderate to heavy rain around here for hours. Loving it. 

Same here. Been raining moderately to heavily consistently and hasn't stopped. Usually we get shadowed a lot too.

[T-Town]

Windy as a mofo here. 

[TacomaWx]

9 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Windy as a mofo here. 

Yeah it’s really windy here decent storm for the first one of the year 

[Gradient Keeper]

What an awesome stormy Fall day! More please!

[Doinko]

Slow shift eastward

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS (Past 4 runs)

24hr Rainfall totals

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Doinko said:

Slow shift eastward

Agreed. I also noted after a bit of a pullback the 18z GEFS was colder -14.5c mean temp for The Dalles. Hmmm....

[TigerWoodsLibido]

30 minutes ago, Dave said:

The coastal mountains west of Eugene have a very low elevation compared to most of the PNW. No rain shadowing for us. 

Same here. Pouring on the east side of the metro area. It’s glorious.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 (Past 4 runs)

48hr Rainfall totals

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 2 (Past 4 runs)

48hr Rainfall totals

Slightly farther west than the 18z though

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 (Past 4 runs)

72hr Rainfall totals

[Doinko]

Cold in NW WA!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

The cool days and crisp nights are going to be nice next week.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 (Past 4 runs)

[luterra]

1 hour ago, Eujunga said:

NAM 3km is showing around 1.0" through Sunday night, which seems reasonable to me. Just got carried away buying into all the 5"-10" model runs from earlier even though I told myself not to.

I bet you'll get your 1" by tomorrow morning and closer to 2" - if not more - by Sunday night.  We're up to 0.46" in Corvallis and the trailing edge of the heavy rain is still north of Portland.

[TT-SEA]

36 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Uh, pretty sure we just had about 10-12 weeks of unabated historic torching and ridging. We're not exactly due for a huge pattern flip again right away.

The east will get their fun.