Front Ranger Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: R.I.P Ken block. I know many of you don't know who is is but he was one of the best race car drivers in the world, rally car racing and a bunch of other stuff. Lost his life in a snowmobile crash. I wasn't familiar with him, but read an article and seems like he was a really solid and interesting dude. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 This winter has been rather calamitous. Between Buffalo, Jeremy Renner and now Ken Block. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: This winter has been rather calamitous. Between Buffalo, Jeremy Renner and now Ken Block. Bay area NWS seems to think they're up next. 1 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 I just was reading the bay area discussion. They are making it sound like the end of the world. I do not know much about that area but has it ever rained there before? 1 6 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 It’s early enough that things can change, but this isn’t the sort of VP signature you’d expect from a decaying La Niña. Quite the opposite, in fact. Maybe we go the 2000/01-2002/03 route, and the transition to El Niño is a long, slow process? Based on the solar cycle/IPWP relationship, you wouldn’t expect the next IPWP extension for another ~ 2 years at least, so that may also argue for a slower and/or dampened transition into +ENSO & associated WP extension. 8 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 That +TNH/Baffin vortex pattern that had relentlessly tormented the SW US for the last decade has (thus far) failed to show its face this winter. Last winter at this time we were looking at a full blown +NAO/+TNH rex block with no southern stream influence whatsoever in the SW US. Much better pattern so far this winter. Hadley Cell setup is at least somewhat less “scary” than last year. So far. Not saying it’s like 2018/19 (+ENSO), but it’s definitely better than the last 2 years, esp considering it’s a La Niña low pass regime at the moment. 4 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Phil Posted January 3, 2023 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 Badly needed. 10 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 Still getting whatever frozen precipitation this is. Not sure if still graupel or sleet. Getting a bit more.if.it but alas lunch is over. VID_20230103_130217760.mp4 2 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Actually did get some snow in January up this way last year, but it was the slushy, sloppy variety. Even when it was falling it was clear that the cold snap was waning and would soon be over. Agree with your general outlook. Not really expecting this month to deliver much in the way of snow. If it does, it will probably be in the final few days as part of a cold snap that straddles months. We had ~14” in early January last year. Pretty good chance this January is warmer and less snowy than last year here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 Last measurable snow in January here over a dusting was 1/11/2017.... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 18z coming soon! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 It's something. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christensen87 Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY... * WHAT...East winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Western Strait of Juan De Fuca, North Coast, Central Coast and East Puget Sound Lowlands. * WHEN...From 4 PM Wednesday to 4 AM PST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawksfan2008 Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 15 minutes ago, Christensen87 said: ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY... * WHAT...East winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Western Strait of Juan De Fuca, North Coast, Central Coast and East Puget Sound Lowlands. * WHEN...From 4 PM Wednesday to 4 AM PST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. Anyone pay attention to which models seem to handle east wind events the best? They are all over the place with this setup… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 Trying to get my spouse to investigate the dusting. I'm curious to see what precipitation has fallen. It's on the branches as well. 1 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 My wife went outside and based on what she told me I think it's probably sleet. Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 We had snow today 7 years ago 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 24 minutes ago, Chris said: For the west coast at least, the results this winter seem more ninoesque than nina. December with the cold and snow is Nina like. And there was also a lot of snow and cooler weather in November. Heavy mountain snow pack also is Nina like. January of course with the heavy California precip is more Nino like. So most of the winter has been like a Nina. But it's good to see California getting so much snow and rain now. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 Looks very windy tomorrow, this model is forecasting gusts over 50mph for my location 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christensen87 Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: All eyes now turn towards the 12z CFS. Not good. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 5 minutes ago, Christensen87 said: Not good. It struggles with greatness. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 Low of 28F with fog. Currently 43F light rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 On my last break and went outside. It is certainly snow now. Very fluffy and sticking a bit on the grass and some north facing roofs but very light. RIght at 32F now. 4 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 Raining and 45 here in South Salem. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Doinko Posted January 4, 2023 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 Looks like the MJO could move into phase 2 at some point Here's what MJO phase 2 generally looks like in February with -ENSO... 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 She’s a beaut 6 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 Ugh… I leave the forum for like three hours, come back and it takes me almost a minute and a half to get caught up. 1 5 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 hour ago, Doinko said: Looks like the MJO could move into phase 2 at some point Here's what MJO phase 2 generally looks like in February with -ENSO... Go figure 2 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Cats Meow Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 January 20th is when we slide back into the freezer. Mark it down. 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 6 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: R.I.P Ken block. I know many of you don't know who is is but he was one of the best race car drivers in the world, rally car racing and a bunch of other stuff. Lost his life in a snowmobile crash. I'm glad someone brought this up. I am a major motorsports fans and have brought it up motorsports a few times in the sports banter thread, but there's no traction if you ain't talking NFL or baseball there. It's really sad what happened to him. It honestly feels like you always hear about a lot of famous people dying right at the end and beginning of a new year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 3 hours ago, Doinko said: Looks very windy tomorrow, this model is forecasting gusts over 50mph for my location You should check out some of the wind models for N. California tomorrow and tonight. Strong winds plus saturated ground, tons of rain, it's going to be messy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 This forum is a straight up ghost town. 5 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: This forum is a straight up ghost town. Lots of people probably taking a break. There definitely hasn’t been a shortage of model riding this winter. Basically since late October it’s been pretty consistent with a few short breaks in between events. This looks like it’ll be the longest break this winter. 3 Quote (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 20 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said: Lots of people probably taking a break. There definitely hasn’t been a shortage of model riding this winter. Basically since late October it’s been pretty consistent with a few short breaks in between events. This looks like it’ll be the longest break this winter. Eye of the storm. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 5 hours ago, Hawksfan2008 said: Anyone pay attention to which models seem to handle east wind events the best? They are all over the place with this setup… The ECMWF has been very consistent. Gusts to 50 or so in the windiest areas more near the West Slopes of the Cascades. This will be a decent blow, but not really destructive I'm thinking. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 Just now, snow_wizard said: The ECMWF has been very consistent. Gusts to 50 or so in the windiest areas more near the West Slopes of the Cascades. This will be a decent blow, but not really destructive I'm thinking. What does the Euro show for here? The WRF-GFS is showing 50mph+ gusts for my location. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 minute ago, Front Ranger said: Eye of the storm. I'm thinking so. This upcoming SSW looks like a big deal. Certainly enough to shake up the pattern. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 minute ago, Doinko said: What does the Euro show for here? The WRF-GFS is showing 50mph+ gusts for my location. Where are you in relation to Portland? 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 The long range GEFS control was really nice today. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 30 day averages. 18z CFS was much better. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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