February 2019 Observations and Discussion

[hlcater]

Please, no rain next weekend! GFS has rain in Iowa on Sunday. Hopefully that changes. 

 

It's February 24th. Getting to the point in the year where climo is starting to stack against us.

[Minny_Weather]

Yeah GFS has rain/backside inch of slush here on Sunday. Yeah, no thanks. Give me what Euro is showing or give me no storm at all.

[Niko]

Currently at 24F w light snow. Heavy snow expected early tanite. Several inches are likely.

[Iowawx]

It's February 24th. Getting to the point in the year where climo is starting to stack against us.

We had snow in late March and into early April last year, so I guess this one just depends on the track of the SLP. 

[East Dubzz]

With an inch or two still to be added with their official measurement from today, Dubuque has 43” for the year.

[jaster220]

Yeah GFS has rain/backside inch of slush here on Sunday. Yeah, no thanks. Give me what Euro is showing or give me no storm at all.

 

What? You don't want the SMI treatment? 

[Stormhunter87]

A nice little snow shower creeping through. Good dusting so far.

[Minny_Weather]

What? You don't want the SMI treatment? 

Seriously, what is up with all the rain you guys have been getting this Winter? It's more like Southern Ohio this year I've noticed.

[Niko]

Currently cloudy and snow has ended, actually snow just started up as I just check. Welcome to part2. Temps are at 21F. Winter Wonderland outside. Tomorrow should look awesome out there in pure daylight.

[Iowawx]

GFS still with a big rainmaker next weekend for pretty much everyone on this forum except those in Minnesota. Still hoping for this to change. At least the Euro still showed snow here.

[jcwxguy]

GFS and fv3 showing a Rainer here next weekend, good thing it's a week away

[Minny_Weather]

FV3 tracks the low right over here so that explains why it's a rainer.

[jcwxguy]

Ukie

[jcwxguy]

Not sure if it means much but the GFS ensembles are further south and colder for Nebraska

[Grizzcoat]

Pretty sure the Euro has a near blizzard for NE and rain to snow for others for the 23rd - 24th.

[jcwxguy]

Pretty sure the Euro has a near blizzard for NE and rain to snow for others for the 23rd - 24th.

I was going to say blizzard is back

[snowstorm83]

Meanwhile snow is falling in Las Vegas right now...

[Grizzcoat]

Very cold air for late Feb behind the system on the 23rd-24th per the Euro-- highs in the teens for many.

[jcwxguy]

Wouldn't you know it, euro has yet another system rolling east towards end of run lol

[jcwxguy]

Afd from dmx talks a little about this next weekend

Much like yesterday confidence for this lead time is

at least medium that a significant winter storm will affect at

least some portion of Iowa this weekend. The ECMWF, GFS, FV3 and

CMC have been placing their recent solutions with surface tracks

anywhere from MO and IL into southeast IA, with 00z EC and GFS

deterministic and ensemble solutions suggesting farther north into

IA. Locations north and west of this eventual track are expected

to see heavy, wind blown snow with a blizzard not out of the

question if the stronger envelope of solutions comes to pass. EC,

GFS and CMC QPF amounts are all at least 0.75 for maxes as well

with convective potential. It needs to be emphasized not to get

too caught up in amounts, etc for any particular location at this

point, as confidence in details including timing and track are

low to medium, but this certainly needs to be monitored for

significant impacts in a broader sense

[Grizzcoat]

--Through 5AM 2/18/19 Des Moines has received 19.3" of snow this February. (tied for 6th place in FEB history) - 3.5" of more snow this month would make this the snowiest February ever recorded in Des Moines. The list - #1 22.7" 2008. #2 21.3" 1962 #3 20.4" 1939 #4 19.7" 2010 #5 19.4" 2014 Tie for #6 - 19.3" both in 1924 and 2019. What is remarkable about this list is that 4 of the top 7 have occurred in the 21st century.- 4 in the last 11 years! - with records going back 134 years!!!

[Grizzcoat]

Des Moines has received measurable snow 20 days this year. There are 11 more days where snow fell but it only accumulated to a trace. So snow has fallen 31 of the first 49 days (63%) of 2019.

[Tom]

00z Euro Control....this is the one that has the looks of a classic Plains/Upper MW western Lakes cutter.  As much as I dislike seeing hard cutters, I'd like to see those of you out west just obliterate snowfall records this month.  #BuildtheGlacier  #Snowmagedon'19

[Tom]

Once we get past this upcoming #SnowBlitz this week/weekend, the good ol' "Nanook From the North" will pay a visit to finish off the month, esp for those who have a deep snow pack when all has settled after the 2 storms this coming week. I think many of you from NE/IA/MN/WI have the potential to shatter record lows...possibly record low highs during the last couple days of the month. Just an incredible signal for cold from both the EPS/GEFS and will prob surpass Feb '14 in terms of widespread cold....more or less, a Feb '15 cold outbreak but centered across the central states.

 

Here is the 00z EPS snow mean through the rest of the month....

 

Meanwhile, the SOI continues to plummet....this is going to be a major player in early March...the central CONUS is setting up shop to be the epicenter of cold/storms....more snow and more storms...did I mention storms????

Daily contribution to SOI calculation -35.88

[Tom]

There is an incredibly consistent LR signal that the entire lobe of the Polar Vortex may settle up shop across North America as we open up March.  This ties into my LR post a few days ago how the 50 day cycle may in deed be cycling again even up in the Stratosphere.  What an amazing feat this would be and truly an atmospheric "wet dream" when looking at the entire scope of an extreme North American pattern.  If your a winter wx enthusiast, this is about as wild of weather you can ask nature to align in terms of the Stratosphere.

[Niko]

NOAA: Regarding next weekends storm

 

Per 00z Euro, another very strong upper level wave/trough will track
through the Four Corners region on Friday. In fact, it looks like
this upper wave will dig even farther south, into northern Mexico.
This will allow for an even better feed of Gulf Moisture, with
rapidly deepening cyclogensis as the system lifts toward the
Western/Central Great Lakes region over the weekend. Heavy rainfall
and strong winds look to be the main hazards at this time, with even
a chance of thunderstorms not out the question. However, we still
are 6 days out and plenty can change, as the FV3-GFS is farther east
with the track and does suggest quicker cooling and potential for a
changeover to snow for second half of the weekend.

[westMJim]

Here at my house I recorded 3.5" of new snow yesterday and overnight. There is now 8.7" of snow on the ground here. The official numbers at the airport for Grand Rapids for February 14.9" (up to midnight) since December 1st 48.6" and for the season 63.0" with clear skies the current temperature here at my house is 15.7°

[Niko]

Currently at 18F w flurries still flying around. Heavy snowpack out there. Beautiful scenery.

[Tom]

Current temp of 22F, breezy wind out of the NW and a snow squall coming in off the lake...what more could you ask for???  I just got in from shoveling the powdery snow and I had flashbacks of some of the more memorable snow systems with backside LES.  I can't express how much I love seeing these type of snow storms that have the cold/wind/synoptic/Lehs/LES all tied in together. 

 

The landscape looks absolutely gorgeous out there with a fresh blanket of white powder and I'm glad that finally I had the chance to witness a solid snow storm that had the lake involved.  Hopefully there are a some more storms in the near future before climo really starts to turns its head.

[Niko]

Next weekends storm looks like a big one. Lets hope for further east trends  (FV3-GFS are east w more snow).

[Minny_Weather]

Getting light snow right now. 12.6*F.

 

If we end up with measurable snow today (not so sure about this one), tomorrow, and Wednesday, we will set a record for consecutive days with measurable snowfall. The current record is 5 days.

[Beltrami Island]

Another -20 morning here. But it was +20 yesterday with sunny skies and light winds...it felt tropical. I was sweating at time snowmobiling yesterday. The snow is deep enough deer don't want to leave the trail.

[Tom]

Another -20 morning here. But it was +20 yesterday with sunny skies and light winds...it felt tropical. I was sweating at time snowmobiling yesterday. The snow is deep enough deer don't want to leave the trail.

Now that’s what a typical Northwoods trail should look like in Feb! Superb pic and enjoy the historic stretch of winter up there!

[gimmesnow]

00z Euro Control....this is the one that has the looks of a classic Plains/Upper MW western Lakes cutter.  As much as I dislike seeing hard cutters, I'd like to see those of you out west just obliterate snowfall records this month.  #BuildtheGlacier  #Snowmagedon'19

 

I sure hope that slides south a little more. Models have SE WI and N IL getting hit with a ton of rain. Rain after President's day is extremely bad for snowboarding, worst case scenario by far. If it's before the last holiday weekend, they'll blow more snow and fix the hill. But after President's day, even if we have perfect snow blowing conditions, it's entirely possible they simply won't blow snow and just shut the hill down.

 

I hate this part of the year, every week I am scared I'm going to have my last week of snowboarding here for the next 8 months. But usually I'm completely wrong.

[Hawkeye]

I think our nice, new, fluffy snowpack is going to take a big hit next weekend.

[gabel23]

The 12z FV3-GFS is on some drugs. Showing 60" of snow accumulation with the next two storm systems. Fun to look at but impossible for it to happen. I'll tell you what though, I'm loving the fact that all the major models are showing the weekend storm. Fun times ahead for sure! 

[CentralNebWeather]

The 12z FV3-GFS is on some drugs. Showing 60" of snow accumulation with the next two storm systems. Fun to look at but impossible for it to happen. I'll tell you what though, I'm loving the fact that all the major models are showing the weekend storm. Fun times ahead for sure!

5 feet. Looks reasonable. What is wrong with this model? Always seem overhyped.

[Hawkeye]

Sioux City only had 10 inches of snow for the season before this latest storm.  It's possible they could be at 30 inches after next weekend.

[Stacsh]

Looks like SMI is pretty much out of the running for any snowstorms to round out Feb.  Give me an early spring!

[GDR]

The fv3 has been ROCK SOLID all winter!!