December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Omegaraptor]

Looks like the PNW, for the third year in a row, will be waiting until February.

[El_Nina]

Looks like the PNW, for the third year in a row, will be waiting until February.

Wishful thinking

[seattleweatherguy]

Tropospheric polar vortex, which can be coupled or decoupled to the primary polar vortex in the stratosphere.

 

Usually when they’re “coupled”, it’s no bueno in the PNW. Dislodging/decoupling the TPV from the PV is how you get the vodka cold out of the Arctic, and a surefire way to achieve that is via a SSW that nukes the stratospheric PV, unshackling the TPV (to oversimplify it).

 

So that graph says its "coupled"?

[Requiem]

EURO time--- may be further north but I hope it keeps the heavy rain...

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like the PNW will be waiting until February 2021

[Phil]

Speaking of the TPV, it’s location next week in the Beaufort Sea/western Arctic is unfortunate given the changes occurring over the NW Pacific/Siberia.

 

It will take a little while to kick it the f**k outta there, where it’s directly hindering the -EPO. And that could waste precious time in early Jan.

[seattleweatherguy]

 

Looks like the PNW will be waiting until February 2021

 

 

Relax models arent trustable beyond 3 days! LOL

[MossMan]

Someone get Phil to translate this.

Looks like the cold air dumps into the pacific. Might help kill the blob anyway!

[ShawniganLake]

Relax models arent trustable beyond 3 days! LOL

I’m sure arctic air is just 3.5 days away and the models don’t see it yet. And I was just kidding anyways

[OysterPrintout]

Euro still quite a bit wetter than GFS.

 

[Blizzard777]

I was curious as to what my camera might capture in this extremely dense fog. Yes, basically a shittpost, but somewhat interesting IMO. There was no snow lol (obviously), or rain, just dense fog, and it was dead calm.

 

This is El_Nina territory!  He is able to see individual fog particles!   Awesome shot!

[stuffradio]

Yikes.

 

Your blurry PNA photos reminds me of UFO videos. UFO videos for some reason are always shaky and very low quality with our advancement of video phone technology. Is the forecast you post even real!? No one will know.

[FroYoBro]

Euro still quite a bit wetter than GFS.

 

5 inches would satisfy me. Go Euro!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Not for us... Unfortunately.

 

We still have February!!

I'm confident we'll get at least a small piece of that this January!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Thinks looking pretty bleak now through mid-January. By that time the heart of winter in the PNW will have passed. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Look at that heat heading for the center of the continent, in the believable range. A65BD6DC-62E1-43DB-8571-4A35300F70DB.png

Extreme weather, gotta love it!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Euro still quite a bit wetter than GFS.

 

Nice, the 12z UKMET looks wet too. It's showing 6"+ rain from North PDX Metro to Tacoma. Even higher amounts along the Northern Oregon Coast.

 

[Deweydog]

MLK

[FroYoBro]

Thinks looking pretty bleak now through mid-January. By that time the heart of winter in the PNW will have passed.

We don’t even know what January 5th is going to be like.

[Deweydog]

We don’t even know what January 5th is going to be like.

Check your email.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We don’t even know what January 5th is going to be like.

 

CFS goes out to like the 18th now. 

[BLI snowman]

5 inches would satisfy me. Go Euro!

 

Sucks that it shows Seattle and Eugene stealing all the goods again 

[FroYoBro]

CFS goes out to like the 18th now.

I give this troll attempt 4/10.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I give this troll attempt 4/10.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Lots of snow on the Mongollan Rim and San Francisco Peaks.  

[TacomaWaWx]

Thinks looking pretty bleak now through mid-January. By that time the heart of winter in the PNW will have passed.

 

We don’t even know what’s to happen past 7 days...there’s no telling what January will actually bring.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just got the alert on my phone for the flood watch...also cliff mass posted a new blog. Also makes mention of a modest wind event for the area Saturday. This ought to be the most weather fun we’ve had in awhile.

[MossMan]

I do think that late February and early March will deliver again this season. No reason to think January will deliver...It simply doesn’t anymore.

[Timmy Supercell]

I noticed on the winter weather advisory that they mention wet snow accumulating. It has happened only a few times here, but I suppose it can happen more often on the cascades and impact travel. We'll see later what I get in town. I'm not expecting a major storm. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

I really don't want to get into this, BUT since people think this is some gossip chat and think it's okay to talk about me here we are. I despise this. I'll make it clear that one way to make sure someone doesn't want to be around is to talk about them making assumptions or thinking you know this or that about them. It's really simple. I do not take kindly to people messing with me. When I logged in and I see my name mentioned and how I'm not going to be banned, but blah blah blah. No inclination of sarcasm or a joke. It seemed serious to me. I figured it was like so many other times in my life where someone/people for no reason out of the blue treated me like s**t. I'm used to it. That's exactly how I interpreted it. Joking about banning me. Nope. I do not have a temper or anything resembling that. I don't have any issues just a bad knee and exhaustion from constant pain and a lack of sleep. Jesus Christ I regret reacting at all to the "joke" about banning me/not banning me. I should have just deactivated my account.

 

Sorry things went down the way they did, and sorry to hear about the knee issues and exhaustion.  I definitely get the exhaustion thing, I have not slept well in months to the point I feel like it is impacting my cognitive function.  My wife notices it.  She hasn’t said anything but I see a concerned look in her eye as I struggle to remember names and basic words....I think I am finally homing in on a solution, but in the meantime I feel like I am a zombie.

 

I for one appreciate your model analysis and the way you break it down.  There are a lot of very knowledgeable people on this forum but the way you present, especially with the images/animations; it offers me the best chance to try and understand. 

 

I kinda wish we could get everyone together face to face, I wonder if we would have all the sniping and keyboard warrior BS if everyone had a face to put to the name... attached a real physical persona to “TT-Sea” “Mossman“, “Phil” and all the rest.

[Timmy Supercell]

I do think that late February and early March will deliver again this season. No reason to think January will deliver...It simply doesn’t anymore.

 

Only a couple years have passed since a pretty incredible January..    At least for Oregon. And I can count almost as many times we've ended up with a non-eventful December, or a dry/cold Dec.

[Phil]

EPS trying so hard to tank the EPO..perfect wave driving setup for it. But that TPV sitting north of AK is doing everything it can to delay it. The little bugger is just swatting away the punches and lol’ing.

 

Highly unlikely it can survive for long on its own, but it’s still annoying.

[TacomaWaWx]

I do think that late February and early March will deliver again this season. No reason to think January will deliver...It simply doesn’t anymore.

wouldn’t surprise me either. If we get to mid February and it’s still looking about that same as it is now...then I’d start to get worried. It just seems like the last 10 years for the most part winter has struggled to get itself together until February around this area..with a couple of exceptions.

[Winterdog]

Just got the alert on my phone for the flood watch...also cliff mass posted a new blog. Also makes mention of a modest wind event for the area Saturday. This ought to be the most weather fun we’ve had in awhile.

I just got an alert on my phone too. It says Sno-Wiz is pulling out all his nose hairs after reading today’s posts.

[TacomaWaWx]

I just got an alert on my phone too. It says Sno-Wiz is pulling out all his nose hairs after reading today’s posts.

must be frustrating to him having this lack of cold anomalies!

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS shows some very cold air in Alaska in the 10-15 day period...

 

 

 

 

And here is day 15... not progressing southward.

 

[TT-SEA]

Look at that heat heading for the center of the continent, in the believable range. A65BD6DC-62E1-43DB-8571-4A35300F70DB.png

That gets Minneapolis up to the mid 30s... heat wave for them!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

MLK

I say to you today, my friends, so even though we face the difficulties of today and tomorrow, I still have a dream. ... I have a dream that one day this region will see another January 1950 winter!

[El_Nina]

This is El_Nina territory!  He is able to see individual fog particles!   Awesome shot!

Forgot about that one!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

39F and cloudy. Awaiting the river of moisture (most of which is headed to the north).