November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Doinko]

Already down to 29, we were about 37 this time yesterday

[Front Ranger]

16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Kind of seems like the LRC is in full effect this season.  The first half of November was a wet torch and then cold and dry just like late October.

'Tis the season.

[snow_wizard]

The EPS control picks up where the operational ECMWF leaves off and comes dangerously close to delivering.  Well worth keeping an eye on.

[snow_wizard]

Down to 30 here in spite of a lot of clouds this evening.  Pretty impressive.

[Kolk1604]

17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The EPS control picks up where the operational ECMWF leaves off and comes dangerously close to delivering.  Well worth keeping an eye on.

I see it!

[snow_wizard]

17 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

I see it!

It actually does deliver at the very end.

[snow_wizard]

No doubt we have a shot at something coming up.  A lot of pretty cold members there.

[snow_wizard]

This type of behavior in our weather reminds more of what you would normally see in an ENSO neutral winter.  The big temperature fluctuations and the bone dry to soaking wet regime being repeated.  If that possible SSW happens later in December we just might pull off something pretty good.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

At least the first half of December this seems to be a lock. I mean the first week of  the month is going to torch. A good bet the 2nd half of the month is cooler and drier, could be setting up a big first half of January. 

I think January might be too late, EWT-MJO climo begins to change between the winter solstice and New Years.

That said, technically anything is possible. I’m looking hard for something anomalous or interesting in the pattern to cling to and project forward from, but I still can’t find it. Possibly my own shortcoming there, but I wouldn’t bet on much cold in North America this winter.

[Gradient Keeper]

I'm thinking we may see a classic progression from an AR(or two) followed by blocking and cold pattern. Then jet suppression. That may lead to a sharp temp gradient and favor Olympia-Tacoma northward. I believe the ECMWF ENS Control shows something similar. We've seen this play out many times in the Winter after an AR. It seems to be more common during December. Hmmm....

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow. Check out the EPS for Portland! Look how many members are exceeding 6 even 7 inches of rain!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Got some dawgs in there again.

[Ken in Wood Village]

11/28/23 I had 46.8/32.4 

This morning I had 32.9. Looks like it's going to be very wet coming up. 

[TT-SEA]

31 and clear here this morning... east wind has died.   

06Z was not nearly as wet with the main event next week due to a low forming and bending the AR moisture plume back to the west.   Probably just an outlier though and it will be different on the 12Z run.   It also shows another AR event towards the end of the run. 

[antipex]

Pretty decent fake cold here. The last several days have seen:

36/18

30/18

28/25

32/17

32/16

Yesterday it cleared off and there’s a line of white on the mountains where the clouds have been hanging out. Expecting 4-8” of snow Thursday night through Sunday, then rain and temps approaching 40. Very different from last year where our average November high was 33.7.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like Salem and Eugene both hit 24 before the clouds moderated them up to 30. 5 straight sub 25 lows at EUG.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

30 at Seattle 28 at PDX on the hour. Redmond, Burns, and ROME all sitting at 8.

[TT-SEA]

7 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

At least the first half of December this seems to be a lock. I mean the first week of  the month is going to torch. A good bet the 2nd half of the month is cooler and drier, could be setting up a big first half of January. 

This is my feeling as well.   Best chance for cold and snow might line up with Christmas and New Years given the repeating pattern we have been in for the last couple months.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Foggy and 30.7˚F. First night IMBY that has managed a freeze despite lack of clear conditions. Pretty decent fake cold episode. Been a while since we’ve had one here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This my feeling as well.   Best chance for cold and snow might line up with Christmas and New Years given the repeating pattern we have been in for the last couple months.

Pretty amazing the central willamette valley will end November solidly below normal for temps and precip after such a warm wet start to the month. 

[TT-SEA]

[Anti Marine Layer]

Lots and lots of rain on the way from tonight to Tuesday. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Lots and lots of rain on the way from tonight to Tuesday. 

For SoCal?

[Doinko]

26 again tonight, been a really nice stretch. Hopefully we get some good rain!

[Anti Marine Layer]

25 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

For SoCal?

For Portland

[FroYoBro]

It was all the way down to 28 degrees when I went to bed. 32 now that some clouds rolled in overnight. 

[LowerGarfield]

24F currently.

[Phishy Wx]

Not sure its worth the effort to charge the blower and shovel when rain will wash it out quickly.  will be nice to see first snow of the season though

 

 

[MossMan]

On this date in 2006, 2014, 2022, and about 10 minutes ago. 
Oh and the PNA. 
Low of 28. Currently 29. 

[ShawniganLake]

Low of 35F this morning

[MossMan]

Well my grass has finally stopped growing. 

[Phishy Wx]

Freezing Fog and Cloudy, 24

[SnowySeeker50]

Low of 26, currently 32f

[Jbolin]

Will be nice to finally get this BS inversion out of here and have a pleasant return to Tim's personal hell.

I for one welcome the return of our AR overlords and the snow they bring'eth (for now). 

Let's see what else this El Nina has in store. 
 

[Kolk1604]

Totals have increased through Day 5 on the EMCWF

[Phil]

This is amazing. From Spokane, WA.

[Phil]

In 13/14 and 14/15, lows in the teens were standard affair. But I’m out of practice after years of torching. This AM felt legitimately uncomfortable to me, when in years past I would’ve loved it.

I think I’m getting old.  Or worse, turning into Tim.

[North_County]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

This is amazing. From Spokane, WA.

I drove to/from Spokane over the weekend and the freezing fog in the area was no joke. It was dark out, but it looked like rime ice was forming on the road signs along the freeway. Not like this, though. Cool picture. 

[North_County]

15 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Totals have increased through Day 5 on the EMCWF

I'll be perfectly content if Whatcom County remains marginally within the Olympic rainshadow as indicated on the maps......

[Phil]

If it’s going to happen this winter, it’ll be from this. Quite possibly the best chance for the PNW since constructive interference w/ niño LP resumes in earnest come Jan.