January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[SnarkyGoblin]

9 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Less snow than the 0z but that's ok!

But more snow than the 6z!

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Awesome overrunning event

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice overrunning event at the end lol. Regional from south to north. 

[Snownerd3000]

You know its been fun model watching when its the 3rd day of the month and already 30 pages.

[OysterPrintout]

Seems to me like everything is actually going exactly according to the usual plan

-Models show something good long term

-Good solutions disappear for 24 hours

-Good solutions reappear

-As we get closer it turns out quite a bit different than any of the day 5-9 runs and looks a lot more marginal/reasonable

-Andrew has Andy Kaufman-esque catastrophic breakdown and attempts to drag the entire forum into his own private hell

--PDX and south metro gets 0-T", favored areas get 0-1.5". OR everyone gets huge overperformance never modeled at all.

-Tim posts daytime frame of day 11 of EPS map showing sunshine and that it won't snow forever

-Repeat as desired

[Phishy Wx]

anxiously awaits Euro..... 

[AlTahoe]

Luckily the details after hour 300 will change a ton cause this run is a little scary. Very 1996-1997 ish. 

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

anxiously awaits Euro..... 

45 minutes to get some work done....right???

[Phil]

FWIW, the new CANSIPS keeps the blocking going for the rest of winter. Wouldn’t that be something.

https://x.com/worldclimatesvc/status/1742591811183370513?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4.5 days of the craziest winter storm in many many years. Fun to look at, at the end with the flow here we wouldnt turn to rain at all around puget sound and probably would stay snow. 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

I feel dirty.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Seems to me like everything is actually going exactly according to the usual plan

-Models show something good long term

-Good solutions disappear for 24 hours

-Good solutions reappear

-As we get closer it turns out quite a bit different than any of the day 5-9 runs and looks a lot more marginal/reasonable

-Andrew has Andy Kaufman-esque catastrophic breakdown and attempts to drag the entire forum into his own private hell

--PDX and south metro gets 0-T", favored areas get 0-1.5". OR everyone gets huge overperformance never modeled at all.

-Tim posts daytime frame of day 11 of EPS map showing sunshine and that it won't snow forever

-Repeat as desired

I probably shouldn’t admit this but my Dad has made the Andy Kaufman reference before…

[Mid Valley Duck]

This run is biblical

[Christensen87]

Looks like even more cold air about to come in after the brief “warmup” at the very end. Just wow. CFS still not fully onboard…

[Kolk1604]

Lol the 06z GFS was so cold that if you look on the run to run change of the 12z, you would think it's over and we're torching. 

But still cold 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This run reminds me of something from 2020.

[RentonHill]

GEFS better for 850s at day 8...getting rid of the turd members one run at a time

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

17 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

I haven't seen this posted....

 

That was before the better ensembles from last night, so it will be interesting to see the one today.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

And that storm at the end turns back to snow. this is the craziest 120 hrs of snow i have ever seen on a model EVER. 

Fun to look at, who knows something like this is possible.

[Phishy Wx]

5 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

45 minutes to get some work done....right???

I have a zoom on camera meeting in 45min.  sorry team, brb, gotta peak at the Euro.

 

btw team, It's Coming

[Rubus Leucodermis]

This is all playing out to the same general script it has in recent winters: GFS predicts cold snap, Euro eventually climbs on board, (you are here), models pull back from epic to garden-variety, garden-variety blast happens. (To the above work in the standard flipping and flopping.)

If only the GFS wasn’t a dog barking at the moon so often, its advance warnings might be useful.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The complete totals are going to be insane.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

And that storm at the end turns back to snow. this is the craziest 120 hrs of snow i have ever seen on a model EVER. 

Fun to look at, who knows something like this is possible.

It sort of happened in 2008 in Portland. Snow transitioned to ice but instead of then turning into a thaw cold air surged back and it reverted to another round of snow.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Gotta throw together a pitchdeck. Brb

[Phil]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This run reminds me of something from 2020.

Don’t even go there.

That winter was actually the inverse of this winter from a strat/NAM standpoint. Much better WAFz and opposite LF wave periods (and no aerosols from Australian fires to force a pseudo-volcanic BDC profile). Zero reason to believe this winter will go super PV/+AO like that one did.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

FWIW, the new CANSIPS keeps the blocking going for the rest of winter. Wouldn’t that be something.

https://x.com/worldclimatesvc/status/1742591811183370513?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

But that shows warm temps for just about all the US and Canada.

[iFred]

10 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Seems to me like everything is actually going exactly according to the usual plan

-Models show something good long term

-Good solutions disappear for 24 hours

-Good solutions reappear

-As we get closer it turns out quite a bit different than any of the day 5-9 runs and looks a lot more marginal/reasonable

-Andrew has Andy Kaufman-esque catastrophic breakdown and attempts to drag the entire forum into his own private hell

--PDX and south metro gets 0-T", favored areas get 0-1.5". OR everyone gets huge overperformance never modeled at all.

-Tim posts daytime frame of day 11 of EPS map showing sunshine and that it won't snow forever

-Repeat as desired

It’s Feb ‘19 all over again.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

This is all playing out to the same general script it has in recent winters: GFS predicts cold snap, Euro eventually climbs on board, (you are here), models pull back from epic to garden-variety, garden-variety blast happens. (To the above work in the standard flipping and flopping.)

If only the GFS wasn’t a dog barking at the moon so often, its advance warnings might be useful.

Yeah as modeled this would be like the blast of the 21st century…which hasn’t happened in a long time. Will this finally be our first big blast since like 1998? Or a typical event by 21st century standards? Or will it all fizzle away? 

[Phil]

Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

But that shows warm temps for just about all the US and Canada.

But it always does. 500mb/MSLP pattern has been much more predictive.

[The Blob]

I think I should put in vacation....

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, iFred said:

It’s Feb ‘19 all over again.

I was going to say that, this run looks like that. i ended up with 3 feet on the ground. and so did Port orchard and bremerton area.

[RentonHill]

@Phil got any verification scores for the GEPS vs the GEFS/EPS? Because the GEPS seems to still have a majority of members not on board. I know you've said multiple times its under-dispersed but that would make me assume that it would be more likely to follow the operational run to run?

[TacomaWx]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I was going to say that, this run looks like that. i ended up with 3 feet on the ground. and so did Port orchard and bremerton area.

Yeah I mean even here we had 20” on the ground at the end. Stuff like what the models are showing can happen…probably not like this GFS map but we have had pepto verify IMBY the last few years. Had 22” total in 2019 and 15” in 2021. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I was going to say that, this run looks like that. i ended up with 3 feet on the ground. and so did Port orchard and bremerton area.

I got 5' in 3 weeks. This looks more potent... but i wasnt here back then model riding 

[Deweydog]

Meanwhile back in reality, eight years ago RIGHT NOW it was SNOWING outside with temperatures in the 20’s thanks to a Canadian shortwave taking the classic inside track to NorCal and straight up the coast amid a cold inversion. I’ve seen it a million times….. I think Jesse and Andrew almost went fistacuffs over precip type during this event. 

[Snownerd3000]

10 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

I feel dirty.

not used to seeing smut this early on a Wednesday huh?

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah as modeled this would be like the blast of the 21st century…which hasn’t happened in a long time. Will this finally be our first big blast since like 1998? Or a typical event by 21st century standards? Or will it all fizzle away? 

we should have a contest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’ve noticed the GEM ensembles are usually very conservative.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah as modeled this would be like the blast of the 21st century…which hasn’t happened in a long time. Will this finally be our first big blast since like 1998? Or a typical event by 21st century standards? Or will it all fizzle away? 

I would say typical or mostly fizzle but still be cold enough for fleeting wet glop, because of El Niño.

[Snownerd3000]

7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Gotta throw together a pitchdeck. Brb

so not that different from the 0z.