January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Doinko]

Coldest 850s on the GEM, highs in the teens at PDX

[LowerGarfield]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Bummer for folks in Western Oregon. Another border hugger event.

Yeah and with the system coming earlier, the GFS is convinced my location will get a lot of snow through hour 216 but my area doesn't get cold until Wednesday so it's a bit of a bummer thus far. NWS says my high on Tue could flirt with 40.

Probably even worse for the WV because you all have been the focal point the last week. Still time to change.

[SpaceRace22]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Not really. The WV only had two inches through this run on the 18z at the same time.

Yeah I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. Not a single run has had the WV scoring much before day 8. Why are people acting like this is some huge rug pull? The good part was never shown to be that far south yet in this part of the run.

[Deweydog]

Backdoor action!

Good thing I got that Brazillian…

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Not really. The WV only had two inches through this run on the 18z at the same time.

Nvm. Looks worse for Seattle north. Shades of 2020

[lowlandsnow]

Cold! This is not a rug pull by any means still some very good runs

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Just now, SpaceRace22 said:

Yeah I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. Not a single run has had the WV scoring much before day 8. Why are people acting like this is some huge rug pull? The good part was never shown to be that far south yet in this part of the run.

When people are nervous that something isn't going their way, they try to find reasons to back up why they're nervous 

[SouthHillFrosty]

[the_convergence_zone]

It's much closer to the ensemble mean from the 18Z GEFS, which might indicate we're finally going to have better agreement in the 00Z ensembles. We'll see. 

[selkirks]

7 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

UUUUHHHHHHH......91 pages and we are only 3 days in?

 

Feel like that is some sort of record or something.....

It's only equivalent to 45 pages yesterday.

[lowlandsnow]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Nvm. Looks worse for Seattle north. Shades of 2020

GFS is a lot worse. I would rather have the GEM favoring cold though

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

When people are nervous that something isn't going their way, they try to find reasons to back up why they're nervous 

Naw it's not even that. I think it's that the GFS had like 4 runs in a row with like 30in of snow so expectations were over the moon. Nobody expected it to happen but we could hope.

[ShawniganLake]

Alaskan blocking not quite as mind blowing on the 0z GFS

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Yeah I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. Not a single run has had the WV scoring much before day 8. Why are people acting like this is some huge rug pull? The good part was never shown to be that far south yet in this part of the run.

Welcome to the forum!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9-10 strong east winds, 925s -16c Gorge, bitter low level blast for PDX.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Coldest 850s on the GEM, highs in the teens at PDX

The 00z GEM is not backing down. It has higher verification scores than the GFS. Everybody changes over to snow next Thursday night as the Arctic Front drops down through Oregon.

[Winterdog]

At hour 221 I'm 22 degrees warmer on the 0Z than the 18Z but still sitting at 16 degrees.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Naw it's not even that. I think it's that the GFS had like 4 runs in a row with like 30in of snow so expectations were over the moon. Nobody expected it to happen but we could hope.

If a model run like this had popped up out of the blue a couple weeks ago we would all be super excited about it lol. Now that it’s compared to some of the fantasy runs it doesn’t seem so great. 

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

The 00z GEM is not backing down. It has higher verification scores than the GFS. Everybody changes over to snow next Thursday night as the Arctic Front drops down through Oregon.

the GEM is smoking crack until its ensembles back it up. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Not nearly as cold at 850 mb. 

[Snownerd3000]

23 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

It's coming, I'm cumming

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Cold Snap]

If feel like the GFS is just doing GFS things. The GEM still looks great and if the Euro still looks good later I think we will be fine.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Yea not good 

[SouthHillFrosty]

[lowlandsnow]

The GFS run is still good for Washington temps goes into the 20s at hour 192 and stays in the 20s through at least hour 252

[SeanNyberg]

Here is what happens.

People don't totally understand what is happening with these model runs. They are here for the vibes (which is GREAT!), they see something like a +3 degree on the run to run temp change and they freak out. Instead of being like "is that a big deal?" and maybe showing they don't fully follow this stuff they say things like "This sucks!" or "This is over!" or "At least XYZ model was good!" etc. So that others will come and say "No, this was a great run" and lift their spirits.

The problem is, we have over 200 people lurking on these message boards and a VAST majority have no clue what most of the complicated jargon means and are looking to read some legitimate discourse and discussion about the newest models. But all they get are people being like "well that sucked!" (when it didn't) and they don't really know what is going on.

The GFS was great. No major issues, for some folks it was a little better for snow, it seemed a little more active, but it was a little warmer for mid-week next week. A very normal fluctuation that doesn't foretell any problems.

Remember, worrying about 2-3 degrees or 2-3 inches is silly. Those are tiny details that should be ignored until literally the day before.

 

[Requiem]

This run is just so... stagnant? Some brief easterlies, but it's just cold-- no overrunning, no undercutting, nothing. Hopefully next few models don't show a solution like this 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The GEM is better than the GFS inside of like 5-6 days. After that it’s a toss up.

This GFS run is not very good for Western Oregon.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Interesting that everyone went crazy over last nights 0z, but tonight's 0z is definitely colder than last night's run, but people think we're trending way worse.  

[Snownerd3000]

10 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Cold! This is not a rug pull by any means still some very good runs

Do you get cold runs from too much ice cream? 

[Deweydog]

Down to 48 at PDX

[Rubus Leucodermis]

22 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

Sea level temps mid to upper 30's so probably 500 to 1000 ft is likely. 

A notch cooler IMBY… surface temps 1˚C, 925 mbar -2–-3˚C… probably wet snow.

 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 minutes ago, Requiem said:

This run is just so... stagnant? Some brief easterlies, but it's just cold-- no overrunning, no undercutting, nothing. Hopefully next few models don't show a solution like this 

Hardest thing for us to get is cold. As long as models keep showing cold, the precip can and will change as we lead up to the event

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

2 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

Here is what happens.

People don't totally understand what is happening with these model runs. They are here for the vibes (which is GREAT!), they see something like a +3 degree on the run to run temp change and they freak out. Instead of being like "is that a big deal?" and maybe showing they don't fully follow this stuff they say things like "This sucks!" or "This is over!" or "At least XYZ model was good!" etc. So that others will come and say "No, this was a great run" and lift their spirits.

The problem is, we have over 200 people lurking on these message boards and a VAST majority have no clue what most of the complicated jargon means and are looking to read some legitimate discourse and discussion about the newest models. But all they get are people being like "well that sucked!" (when it didn't) and they don't really know what is going on.

The GFS was great. No major issues, for some folks it was a little better for snow, it seemed a little more active, but it was a little warmer for mid-week next week. A very normal fluctuation that doesn't foretell any problems.

Remember, worrying about 2-3 degrees or 2-3 inches is silly. Those are tiny details that should be ignored until literally the day before.

 

Everyone needs to read this.  I just pointed out that tonights run is colder then the one everyone went crazy about last night, but you would think it was way warmer based on some reactions.

And snow totals mean nothing at this point.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS re-cap. 10 Day GIFs: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temps, 1000-500mb Thickness/MSLP/Precip

[SeanNyberg]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Everyone needs to read this.  I just pointed out that tonights run is colder then the one everyone went crazy about last night, but you would think it was way warmer based on some reactions.

And snow totals mean nothing at this point.

Which is fine if it was just us weather idiots. But if you look at how many guests are lurking, I think we should be a little more honest. WHICH MEANS if you don't really get what is going on, then just say that. Don't throw around "THAT SUCKED!" just so someone will explain that it didn't.

Just ask "Hey, how does everyone feel about that run? I'm not totally sure what the variations mean big picture." Trust me, no one will judge you. In fact, it tends to make people like you more.

Brian is right, this run is better across the board than the same run at the same time yesterday. We are still solidly on track for some legitimate winter weather (finally).

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Guys seriously wtf. Remember the run you were all hyped up about last night? Saturday next week, high temp on the 00z today and yesterday 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This run is pretty good for Washington but not nearly as good for the Willamette Valley.