January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Mid Valley Duck]

Definitely an improved run at day 5.5

[Slushy Inch]

Getting that cold into Bc quicker

[Cold Snap]

I really feel like this is going to end up just fine. I feel like some people on here care way too much about what the GFS Op says and forget that there are other models too.

[Mid Valley Duck]

We might be cooking

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cold Snap said:

I really feel like this is going to end up just fine. I feel like some people on here care way too much about what the GFS Op says and forget that there are other models too.

We do have a weird attachment to the GFS OP. I think mostly stemming from the fact it runs 4 times a day and goes to 384 hours. Just more content to consume. 

[Slushy Inch]

Definitely cooking. About to go crazy like gem.

[Front Ranger]

Day 6. Ridge just a bit weaker than CMC but very similar.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Mid Valley Duck said:

We might be cooking

PRAISE THE GODS.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We do have a weird attachment to the GFS OP. I think mostly stemming from the fact it runs 4 times a day and goes to 384 hours. Just more content to consume. 

We need to remember what Phil told me. And that is that even an old euro run is more accurate than a recent gfs run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

BTW, FWIW, last night's CFS has a pretty chilly stretch at the very end of January and the first few days of February. It also brings a backdoor arctic blast through around the 20th of January. 

[RaleighHillsRunner]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Definitely cooking. About to go crazy like gem.

[Slushy Inch]

It’s coming. Big blast

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

BTW, FWIW, last night's CFS has a pretty chilly stretch at the very end of January and the first few days of February. It also brings a backdoor arctic blast through around the 20th of January. 

It’s worth nothing.

[SeanNyberg]

I’ll take a really good Euro over a great GFS any day. It’s a one in the hand, two in the bush situation.

dont get me wrong, I love a great GFS. But I sleep better when the Euro is on my side. Lol

[Phishy Wx]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We do have a weird attachment to the GFS OP. I think mostly stemming from the fact it runs 4 times a day and goes to 384 hours. Just more content to consume. 

people homer the shiit out of the GFS here.  not sure why.  probably because you don't have to pay for full access

[HuskyMaestro]

In a class lecture right now and the prof just announced the chances of snow next week to the whole class and to prepare accordingly. Well it’s out there now lol 

[Mid Valley Duck]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We do have a weird attachment to the GFS OP. I think mostly stemming from the fact it runs 4 times a day and goes to 384 hours. Just more content to consume. 

I've thought a lot about this. It has a few things going for it that I think lead to the strong attachment. It's American so that gets a lot of default. It is very accessible (multiple free/paid sites), it runs 4 times a day and has 2 very convenient times for west coast folks (morning and evening) and lastly it runs out to 16 days which leads to extreme results in the long range.

[Phil]

Improvement w/ the -NAO early on the 12z Euro. Also TPV displaced farther south out of Canada.

Might kick east faster than yesterday’s 12z but should be an improvement over last nights 00z.

[SeanNyberg]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

BTW, FWIW, last night's CFS has a pretty chilly stretch at the very end of January and the first few days of February. It also brings a backdoor arctic blast through around the 20th of January. 

WHY ARE YOU ALWAYS SO NASTY AND NEGATIVE!?!??

[TacomaWx]

Cold air headed for the border…will it get hung up at customs or can it get through the NEXUS line and blow right through!? 

[OysterPrintout]

time to IMMEDIATELY shift our allegiances to the KING

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We do have a weird attachment to the GFS OP. I think mostly stemming from the fact it runs 4 times a day and goes to 384 hours. Just more content to consume. 

The GFS will shorten your lifespan if you let it. It’s a troll.

[Mid Valley Duck]

We're back baby!

[Slushy Inch]

Insert exclamative adjective here!

[Front Ranger]

The biggest difference between the Euro/CMC and the GFS is pretty clear early, by day 5 the GFS has way more energy intruding into AK. Block just isn't able to amplify.

[TT-SEA]

As I mentioned... the ECMWF usually follows the GEM.    Its a pretty good rule of thumb.

[van city]

Just now, OysterPrintout said:

time to IMMEDIATELY shift our allegiances to the KING

The Canadian?

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

BTW, FWIW, last night's CFS has a pretty chilly stretch at the very end of January and the first few days of February. It also brings a backdoor arctic blast through around the 20th of January. 

I've been honking the end of Jan/first week of Feb for a month now at least.  not sure what I think now the CFS likes it.  always thought the mid jan deal was transient.  we'll see

[Mid Valley Duck]

Massive improvement days 5-7

[hawkstwelve]

Not sure if this has been posted here already or not but the ECMWF is trying to claw it's way back up to .90 skill score while the GFS is tanking again. I'd place my trust the ECMWF over the GFS at this point.

[the_convergence_zone]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We do have a weird attachment to the GFS OP. I think mostly stemming from the fact it runs 4 times a day and goes to 384 hours. Just more content to consume. 

I saw some rumors that ECMWF is thinking about discontinuing their op run entirely. And it's the best one in the world, yet they still consider it to have minimal value compared with their ensemble products. 

[OysterPrintout]

kind of an interesting wrinkle here for Sunday looks like gradients trying to go flat maybe just a little east wind help 

[Doinko]

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Not sure if this has been posted here already or not but the ECMWF is trying to claw it's way back up to .90 skill score while the GFS is tanking again. I'd place my trust the ECMWF over the GFS at this point.

How's the graphcast's skill doing?

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The biggest difference between the Euro/CMC and the GFS is pretty clear early, by day 5 the GFS has way more energy intruding into AK. Block just isn't able to amplify.

The block on the GFS was completely steamrolled by day 10. Even the Midwest barely gets touched up by that airmass. Obviously an outlier. 

[Darrington Troll]

Hitting refresh on YouTube waiting for Mike Snyder’s update! 

[Phishy Wx]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Cold air headed for the border…will it get hung up at customs or can it get through the NEXUS line and blow right through!? 

It has REAL ID, no worries

[Slushy Inch]

Arctic relocation.

[RentonHill]

BOOM

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is strikingly similar to its 12Z run yesterday.

[hawkstwelve]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

How's the graphcast's skill doing?

Not sure how it's doing on the latest runs but the skill scores from a couple days ago show it struggling along with just about every other model, but perhaps not quite as much.