I hereby allocate the next 2 hours to an open discussion about whether or not Tim only posts good or bad maps and whether he's a consummate truth teller or whether it is low key trolling. This forum to resume at 7:30 for the 00z GFS.
*hits gavel*
Believe it or not you could have two niños that are almost clones structurally, but entirely different regional outcomes with the slightest tweaks to a few boundary conditions.
You can’t know how healthy/coupled a niño is from the weather in your backyard (unless you live in Peru or Australia, maybe). Structurally speaking, the 2023/24 was one of the most majestic of the 21st century, and teleconnected beautifully w/ the extratropics.
It was a very strong niño, in some ways more-so than 2015/16 despite the lower ONI. The way it developed was also unique in the post-1976 era (pacific climate shift) in that it began as a niño-costero/EPAC event with the low frequency projection spreading westward from there, which is the opposite of how niños have developed since the late 1970s.
Where-as many if not most significant niños during the 1950s-70s developed similarly to the 2023/24 event (1972/73 being the most recent example).
Been an interesting start to May. Thursday was supposed to be a dry mild day, but it definitely wasn’t.
Just got home, currently 41 with moderate rain.
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