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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


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5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Speaking of ENSO... the models seems to indicate a return to neutral over the next few months,   

figure06.gif

Nope. Multiyear Niña incoming.

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View outside...

Some pics on the way up to my property.  The ones on the road are 1/4 mile down the road and the gate is the beginning of my 120 acre land.

I SEE FLAKES! WE DID IT!  I would like to thank every single poster and lurker on this board for working so hard this winter. Everyone gave it their all and it ended up with Tigard getting their

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Nope. Multiyear Niña incoming.

You know best... that is your area of expertise.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looks like the models are already beginning to factor in the expected MJO wave right around Feb 1.  The last two GFS runs have ended well and the 12z GFS ensemble in particular shows 850s on the way down again at the end.  The EPS mean shows it to some extent and the EPS control shows the huge block moving eastward and a major trough in the NW as well.

We could be looking at a situation with a decent pattern over the next 10 days followed by a brief period where the block migrates too far west and then comes back again.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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It appears the ECMWF weeklies have gone crazy with the snowfall as we get into Feb.  By far the best mean yet with over 10 inches being shown for SEA.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You know best... that is your area of expertise.  

Sucks for me. But all precursors suggest the continuation of La Niña. Consolidated IPWP, lack of WWB activity/destructive interference w/ low pass signal, falling PMM thru cold season, etc.

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6 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Not that I trust the CFS ENSO forecast in February, and in a month it might show the opposite, but it looks like it agrees with you.

image.thumb.png.dc696485efe477ad0cc7742d143995fd.png

That can easily go neutral.  I would say a weak La Nina next year, but for one, who cares about next year at this time, and two, that will probably be an improvement.

Can we keep the north/central pacific cooler this summer?  I think that means something.

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2 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

That can easily go neutral.  I would say a weak La Nina next year, but for one, who cares about next year at this time, and two, that will probably be an improvement.

Can we keep the north/central pacific cooler this summer?  I think that means something.

I wonder what a 2nd year nina or cool neutral after a Nina would bring?  Considering we won't be coming off a Nino, maybe it will be different next fall and early winter.  But like you said, still a lot of winter left this year.

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5 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I wonder what a 2nd year nina or cool neutral after a Nina would bring?  Considering we won't be coming off a Nino, maybe it will be different next fall and early winter.  But like you said, still a lot of winter left this year.

Last one happened in 2017. It's referred to as a double dip La Nina

https://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/rejoice-skiers-la-nina-now-forecast-to-make-a-reappearance-this-winter

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Mild winter fun fact!!!

Through the first 18 days of 2021, PDX’s low max is 46 degrees.  This is unprecedented with only three other years only able to score a 45 degree max through the 18th.  Those are 2006, 1990 and 1945.  Two of those featured ARCTIC AIR in February.  

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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16 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

That was a very +PMM La Niña, though. A peculiar inter-hemispheric disconnect. This doesn’t look like a repeat of 2017 IMO. 

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2 hours ago, OROR said:

I live in Oakridge. You think we’ll get snow?

Yes. The only question is when will it fall. Next weekend, or the days after that seems likely and you could potentially get a lot of snow.

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The air mass over south central Canada has certainly trended colder.  It’s also interesting how it keeps with the theme this winter of cold air masses retrograding, in this case south to north.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Westward trend for next week... similar to what the EPS has been showing.

On top... the 00Z run last night for next Friday.   And the new 00Z run at the same time on the bottom.

gfs_T850a_us_49.png

gfs_T850a_us_45 (1).png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, MossMan said:

Do you have a zoom in for western wa? 

Here is the same map above zoomed in for WA... 

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-total_snow_10to1-1792000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is the same map above zoomed in for WA... 

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-total_snow_10to1-1792000.png

He actually asked me, not you. But you just couldnt help yourself could you?? You just couldnt wait to show everyone how much you are going to score and nobody else will. and show off your cool ANNUAL weatherbell subscription huh?? Just a regular ol' Bad News Tim right here guys, makes me sick!

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Just now, RentonHillTC said:

He actually asked me, not you. But you just couldnt help yourself could you?? You just couldnt wait to show everyone how much you are going to score and nobody else will. and show off your cool ANNUAL weatherbell subscription huh?? Just a regular ol' Bad News Tim right here guys, makes me sick!

 😁

Side note... it does not show much here either.   Bellingham and Vancouver BC are the big winners.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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