Joshua Lake Oswego Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 59 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: The NAM is usually a more accurate picture of valley floor QPF than the lower res major models are. It's mesoscale model time at this point. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 The 12z suite is not great so far. In one run, the GEM went from... to: Then there's the GFS... 1 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said: The 12z suite is not great so far. In one run, the GEM went from... to: Then there's the GFS... wondering if the OP is seeing the same bs the 6z saw. Bet this doesn't show on the ensemble 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 well I wasn't expecting winter to lock in for good yet, I figured a couple periods of Indian Summer in early November before everything settles into place Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 1 hour ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said: I have a feeling this thing Friday evening through Saturday is going to bust pretty hard from Portland south. Maybe .10'' - .20'' before the rain tapers to showers late Friday night. Scattered downpours on Saturday. Meanwhile, Longview to Seattle will do well. Portland is right on the edge and could catch the southern edge of the steady precip. Canadian mesoscale models are definitely further north with the main precip than most of the other models. You/they could be right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 1 hour ago, MossMan said: Well my grand plans are shot. Was planning on taking today off to blow off all of the ash on everything I don’t want ash on and then get all of the patio furniture put away for the year since ash was supposed to no longer be falling from the sky. And also mow. But now it’s raining so all of the ash I was going to simply blow off will now be a lovely goo. I want tons of rain but I was expecting today to be dry and was going to work on the property all day with clean air to be fully ready for the fall storms. Very disappointing suffocating day so far. Feel free to fling me hotdogs. The rain will Wash the ash away. Give it a week or so. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Canadian mesoscale models are definitely further north with the main precip than most of the other models. You/they could be right. This is the time of year where the N/S gradient tends to be at its strongest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 Smoke has not been bad at all here this week. Just enough onshore flow to clear it out of here but unfortunately it’s been too weak to clear it from most other places west of the mountains 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 So sad, everything is happening much slower than the most of the models were predicting. They were saying the smoke would be considerably cut by 11AM this morning in the runs yesterday. That clearly isn't happening... Even the current runs are wrong as to what is actually happening. We are getting some precipitation though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 Latest runs... They keep saying the smoke will go away but it's not happening as fast as they predict. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 I think we might have actually had some light rain here at some point in the past couple of hours. SCORE!!!! Still smoky as hell though. 5 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 GEFS looking much better than the GFS so far. No ridge in sight. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 AQI Vancouver BC - 152 Bellingham - 168 Everett - 232 Seattle - 202 Bellevue - 326 Tacoma - 192 Vancouver - 312 Portland - 209 Eugene - 321 1 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said: GEFS looking much better than the GFS so far. No ridge in sight. I definitely think things will turn very wet and possibly stormy later next week. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 Hard to believe but the smoke is worse than yesterday here. This must be very difficult for people with any kind of respiratory problems. 50 now after a low of 41. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 NOAA was the only one saying the smoke was going to stick around. KOMO, Q13, KIRO, KING, me, all said by mid morning the smoke would be largely cut into. So I am not sure what the experts at NOAA saw, but they appear to have been right despite none of the 3 smoke models showing the smoke sticking around. Even this morning, local news outlets are still saying the smoke is going to go away today. This as of updates from 8AM this morning. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 The good news is that the CFS has us under the influence of a massive ridge for a couple of weeks in the middle of November. You know what that means... trough city baby. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said: The good news is that the CFS has us under the influence of a massive ridge for a couple of weeks in the middle of November. You know what that means... trough city baby. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 Getting some precip now. Mostly in the form of drizzle. And just like yesterday the smoke, haze and whatever crap is still lingering at the surface is very dense. Skyscrapers still can’t be seen from SODO. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randyc321 Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 It's raining!! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 16 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said: The good news is that the CFS has us under the influence of a massive ridge for a couple of weeks in the middle of November. You know what that means... trough city baby. Just hoping we don't get stuck in the godawful pattern where ARs constantly pound BC and northern WA while Oregon is stuck under subtropical airmasses ad infinitum. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 Euro!!! P-O-R-T-LAND, JETS JETS JETS! 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randyc321 Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, Randyc321 said: It's raining!! Aaand now it's not. Almost completely wet the deck. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Euro!!! P-O-R-T-LAND, JETS JETS JETS! Who could have seen that coming??? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 thru saturday night here is where Euro v GFS stands in precip 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: thru saturday night here is where Euro v GFS stands in precip Pretty good consensus on where the bulk of the moisture is. Just a matter of oomph! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 Hello?........... Anybody out there?... Anyone? 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 Getting some light mist here on the Auburn/Algona border. The ground is damp but that is about it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Cloud said: Hello?........... Anybody out there?... Anyone? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 Euros got some drip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 9 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Euros got some drip GEFS has got some drip. 7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randyc321 Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 1 hour ago, NWbyNW said: Latest runs... They keep saying the smoke will go away but it's not happening as fast as they predict. Is this clearing as most recently projected on this so far inaccurate model in line with fropa timewise? Seems like that is whet it's going to take to push this out. Smoke levels seem to be actually increasing in some areas right now, it needs to go. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randyc321 Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 1 hour ago, NWbyNW said: NOAA was the only one saying the smoke was going to stick around. KOMO, Q13, KIRO, KING, me, all said by mid morning the smoke would be largely cut into. So I am not sure what the experts at NOAA saw, but they appear to have been right despite none of the 3 smoke models showing the smoke sticking around. Even this morning, local news outlets are still saying the smoke is going to go away today. This as of updates from 8AM this morning. I was thinking about tomorrow's afternoon commute earlier this morning. It is likely to be a nightmare. WSP is going to have it's busiest day in a long time. The roads will be very slick in some spots. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 19 minutes ago, Randyc321 said: Is this clearing as most recently projected on this so far inaccurate model in line with fropa timewise? Seems like that is whet it's going to take to push this out. Smoke levels seem to be actually increasing in some areas right now, it needs to go. It's more that the smoke models underestimated the strength of the inversions. This initial front has clearly not been enough to break the cap. The lowlands will likely need to wait until tomorrow afternoon when the much stronger front arrives before seeing an improvement in air quality. 1 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 The Washington Cascades just bumped up into severe drought. It will be interesting to see how long (and how much precip) it will take for us to get back to normal. 3 1 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 thats real nice, clark 7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said: The Washington Cascades just bumped up into severe drought. It will be interesting to see how long (and how much precip) it will take for us to get back to normal. all of it 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 The 12z WRF 1.33km hi-res shows improvement 1-3 PM for Southwest Washington and into the PDX/Vancouver metro area as northwesterly winds increase. I hope it's not delayed any further than that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Gradient Keeper Posted October 20, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 It's weird and quite an adjustment seeing the ensembles show no ridging. Absolutely none for 16 days run after run. Persistent northwesterly flow. Classic La Nina. 18z GFS in 2 hours 21 minutes 7 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North_County Posted October 20, 2022 Report Share Posted October 20, 2022 1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said: Just hoping we don't get stuck in the godawful pattern where ARs constantly pound BC and northern WA while Oregon is stuck under subtropical airmasses ad infinitum. Oregon can have our ARs, especially if it means cold air is getting sucked through the Fraser Canyon on the north side of the low...... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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