November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

This isn't the Friday situation-- obviously lots to resolve with that low. This accumulation is solely hit or miss with that wave of moisture arriving tonight.

Yeah I was mostly talking about the trends with that at this point, sorry I should've made it more clear

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

warm nose is a bastard.  oh what could've been. Euro/Canadian blend was right after all. Kudos to the NWS last night at least in the Spokane metro area. looking like 6-8"ish will be it for this round, already starting to settle and compact.  mostly melted off driveway where I plowed and trees. They probably didn't need to extend the WSW and I wouldn't be surprised if it gets dropped or changed to an Advisory later, secondary and neighborhood streets are a mess

You get warm noses over there too?  I hate those two words.

[MossMan]

Just now, Cloud said:

Will the night shift crew cancel this?! Stay tuned for the next episode of "What's going on at the NWS Seattle Center?" 

They will change it to a Winter Storm Warning just to watch our reaction again…Much like last evening! 

[TT-SEA]

Another model oddity... running the snowfall loop on the ECMWF it looks like the snow is moving from NE to SW today but what is really happening is the cold air is moving south.    

[Winterdog]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

No matter how hard I look I don’t see Arlington mentioned.

[SeanNyberg]

7am Alaska Airlines flight out of SeaTac to PV Mexico tomorrow morning. What are the odds this is happening?? Lol

Last December we got stuck on the tarmac for 8 hours for a Sea to Orlando flight. Multiple de-icing passes and we got sent back to the gate and canceled after EIGHT HOURS just sitting on the tarmac. Lol.

So I have some PTSD about this. 

[DeepFriedEgg]

6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Could be some last minute surprise or something for Friday night but obviously that's a very low chance

Jan 2017 redux???? Too warm unfortunately

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't think that is what happened.   We mixed out entirely earlier today.   The cold air is moving in again from the NW now.

Could well be.  I had checked a few stations near North Bend and it looked like it had stayed pretty cold there.

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

You get warm noses over there too?  I hate those two words.

indeed,  currently 35 off on light snow to rain/snow mix

[Cloud]

5 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

I am gonna go with the NWS one and pretend it is snowing when it is not 

I’m guessing the NWS coastal radar is picking up a lot more than it should. Those navy colors can mostly be ignored. Radar scope loop. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

Current snow situation in Bellingham.

 

currently 38 IMBY

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

No matter how hard I look I don’t see Arlington mentioned.

Stanwood is! Just lump yourself in with me since I’m technically a Stanwood address! 

[snow_wizard]

Just dropped another half a degree with a decent NE breeze.  The clouds have that really dark it's going to snow for a while look.

[xfkirsten]

2 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

7am Alaska Airlines flight out of SeaTac to PV Mexico tomorrow morning. What are the odds this is happening?? Lol

Last December we got stuck on the tarmac for 8 hours for a Sea to Orlando flight. Multiple de-icing passes and we got sent back to the gate and canceled after EIGHT HOURS just sitting on the tarmac. Lol.

So I have some PTSD about this. 

I have a flight to Orlando next month, and I am already having visions of this...

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Could well be.  I had checked a few stations near North Bend and it looked like it had stayed pretty cold there.

It was pouring rain and windy here this morning and all the snow fell off the trees.    It was a dramatic change when the south wind took over.   

[Randyc321]

13 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

warm nose is a bastard.  oh what could've been. Euro/Canadian blend was right after all. Kudos to the NWS last night at least in the Spokane metro area. looking like 6-8"ish will be it for this round, already starting to settle and compact.  mostly melted off driveway where I plowed and trees. They probably didn't need to extend the WSW and I wouldn't be surprised if it gets dropped or changed to an Advisory later, secondary and neighborhood streets are a mess

 

[DeepFriedEgg]

1 minute ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Current snow situation in Bellingham.

 

currently 38 IMBY

That is surprising to say the least. You definitely got skunked on this one. 

[Phishy Wx]

5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

indeed,  currently 35 off on light snow to rain/snow mix

if we get a warm front off the columbia basin we get 'nosed.  Low has to pass well south of us to miss the warm front in most situations.  we can beat it down with a strong east to Northeast wind but that didn't hold this time.  ID and north of here will probably avoid it.

[TT-SEA]

If you watch the UW radar loop... you can see the low sinking south off the SW coast of WA and the deformation zone in King County is gradually morphing to the south even as moisture pumps in from the SW.  The northern extent is fading in favor places to the south... in line with the low sinking south offshore.

[Winterdog]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Stanwood is! Just lump yourself in with me since I’m technically a Stanwood address! 

Yeah you are about as close to Stanwood as I am to Everett.  Your snow will stick around even if you don’t get anymore.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just starting to stick to the roads and precip is ending!! Ughh

 

Edit: precip is filling back in

Edited November 30, 2022 by SouthHillFrosty

[Randyc321]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't think that is what happened.   We mixed out entirely earlier today.   The cold air is moving in again from the NW now.

Correct.  I have been watching these 850s drop from the NW for a while this afternoon.

[Kolk1604]

Can I get that NWS link with all the station Temps? I'm using Weatherbug but I don't know how accurate that is 

[tootthekazoo]

Snow was/is coming down (heavy mix earlier, but lighter now) here near the Auburn airport, more or less at sea level. Temp has dropped almost 10 degrees in the last 2 hours. My view of the west hill of Auburn/Federal Way from my window here at work is obscured but it seems that I can see some white peeking through the wall of precip.

Here's the Auburn Airport weather station link to reference
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAAUBUR76?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash

[GHweatherChris]

34 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Can I get that NWS link with all the station Temps? I'm using Weatherbug but I don't know how accurate that is 

I use this one.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?&zoom=5&scroll_zoom=false&center=40,-97&boundaries=false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false&tab=observation&hazard=true&hazard_type=all&hazard_opacity=70&obs=true&obs_type=weather&elements=temp,wind,gust&temp_filter=-80,130&gust_filter=0,150&rh_filter=0,100&elev_filter=-300,14000&precip_filter=0.01,18&obs_popup=true&obs_density=60&obs_provider=ALL

 

Edited November 30, 2022 by GHweatherChris

[MossMan]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

If you watch the UW radar loop... you can see the low sinking south off the SW coast of WA and the deformation zone in King County is gradually morphing to the south even as moisture pumps in from the SW.  The northern extent is fading in favor places to the south... in line with the low sinking south offshore.

No not acceptable Tim. Not at all.

[Kolk1604]

3 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

I uae this one.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?&zoom=5&scroll_zoom=false&center=40,-97&boundaries=false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false&tab=observation&hazard=true&hazard_type=all&hazard_opacity=70&obs=true&obs_type=weather&elements=temp,wind,gust&temp_filter=-80,130&gust_filter=0,150&rh_filter=0,100&elev_filter=-300,14000&precip_filter=0.01,18&obs_popup=true&obs_density=60&obs_provider=ALL

 

Thanks that's what I was looking for

[Kolk1604]

Temp at 35, snow starting to mix 

[TacomaWx]

D*mn snowing in fife. Good sign for everyone lol. 

[skywatcher]

Rain started mixing an hour ago with big fluffy flakes before switching over about 15 minutes later. Went from 38 then to 34 now, with some pretty heavy snow. Big fluffy flakes are gone though, oh well.

[Terreboner]

Some cold air starting to seep in here finally.  Temp is dropping and should be mixing soon.  Pretty sad at my elevation, lol.

[SouthHillJimmy]

Puking snow now, 35 degrees 

[T-Town]

Mostly snow now and 35 degrees. Nice!

[Requiem]

40 and drizzling

[Cold Snap]

Just watched Snyder’s video. He seems on board with snow happening farther north than modeled!

[Weiner Warrior]

51 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Where in Seattle are you?  I think my son at UW is looking to go for a snow drive.  

Just moved to Cougar Hills in Bellevue.

[SnowySeeker50]

32 degrees and snowing

[TT-SEA]

@snow_wizard

I know you track NB temperatures... and wanted to let you know the circled station is always wrong and too low by about 8 degrees and has been that way for a long time (more than a year).    Just to make you feel a little better.     

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Requiem said:

40 and drizzling

West Hills ?

[xfkirsten]

Just now, Weiner Warrior said:

Just moved to Cougar Hills in Bellevue.

I grew up right near there (Lakemont area) and this storm has me missing that elevation something fierce. My parents still live there, and they've gotten the goods quite a bit in the last several years.