PNW December 2022 - Part II

[TacomaWx]

Was out in Kent working for a few hours this morning and it was lightly flurrying the whole time. Temps been bouncing between 35 and 36 here in Tacoma the last couple hours but no snowflakes since I’ve been home. 

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Precip is really focused out here once the airmass cools down and then there’s a pretty persistent convergence zone. I think that will make up for the warm period. 

Those high totals around king/snohomish line up to Everett are exactly because of that.  Intense echoes will delevop somewhere and continue well after the main rain shield has passed by.  I always bring up a place like Clearview, but somewhere in that vicinity is getting 12+, maybe 18.

[Skagit Weather]

If the higher numbers that models are spitting out verify, this could be one of the snowiest days I've recorded here.

My top 5 days in my records (since 2008):

1. 2011/02/23: 11.5"
2. 2008/12/17: 9"
3. 2020/01/14: 8.5"
3. 2021/02/13: 8.5"
5. 2008/12/21: 6"

But sorry, getting ahead of myself. Realistically I'm thinking the 4-6" call by the NWS is a pretty good estimate and I'll be overjoyed if I get any more. Currently 23.8F.

It would be really fun to see SEA crack the top 10, but I'm not as optimistic down there.

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Light snow!

Looks like the fun is beginning!

[Deweydog]

The GFS is BACK BABY!!!

[KingstonWX]

6 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Light snow!

LOL I was totally gonna tag you and ask what it's doing but you beat me to it. 

[WeatherGeek2022]

Give us widespread heavy totals or this event didn't truly deliver imo.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Unfortunate direction the gfs is going in. Mega torch by Sunday. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

BOOM OR BUST! 
 

IM ALL IN

Edited December 19, 2022 by SouthHillFrosty

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Maybe some 60s for Christmas in the WV. Hopefully this trend can reverse ugh. 

[Doinko]

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2022/12/19/widespread-freezing-rain-ice-storm-likely-heading-into-christmas-weekend/

[Front Ranger]

KUIL reporting light snow with a 34/30 spread. Usually a good sign.

[Kolk1604]

As anyone ever seen the EPS this wet? 

Edit: Whoops was on the control. Here's both 

[Gummy]

7 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Those high totals around king/snohomish line up to Everett are exactly because of that.  Intense echoes will delevop somewhere and continue well after the main rain shield has passed by.  I always bring up a place like Clearview, but somewhere in that vicinity is getting 12+, maybe 18.

Reference to that crazy April 2007 convergence snowstorm where Clearview had like 12"?

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Unfortunate direction the gfs is going in. Mega torch by Sunday. 

It’s like that winter cold. Sooner you catch it, sooner you’re over it.*
 

*2005

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow. Mid 50s by Monday for Seattle. 

[Phishy Wx]

you dudes are riding the GFS like a rented mule.  how much faith are you trying to put in that thing?

[Blizzard777]

46 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Did you get your bonus yet?

Lol…remember, we got a frozen turkey from Costco…..yikes! 
but I do have free executive membership for life  now

[snowbustcity]

[Requiem]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

BOOM OR BUST! 
 

IM ALL IN

Ice maps for your southerly neighbors please?

[Doinko]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

BOOM OR BUST! 
 

IM ALL IN

How much for Oregon?

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, Gummy said:

Reference to that crazy April 2007 convergence snowstorm where Clearview had like 12"?

They had one more recent, and I believe it was March...18" or so. But I do remember the one you speak of.  I think we got nothing but a little mix up in Lake Stevens.  I remember driving south on 9 out of Snohomish and seeing the tops of the trees white up there and nothing but mud puddles at the bottom.  I got off at Lowell/Larimer/Broadway ave. and it just blew my mind how quickly things escalated.

[Front Ranger]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Unfortunate direction the gfs is going in. Mega torch by Sunday. 

Reminiscent of Dec 1996.

[Phishy Wx]

Yeah NWS put a briefing out over here about potential snow melt and flooding next week.

[BLI snowman]

39 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS shows that little warm spike... but its actually more focused out here than in Seattle.   Either way it crashes hard with the heavy precip during the late morning.

That Tacoma to Bellingham gradient, and moreover the Tacoma to Seattle gradient, is insane!

[jakerepp]

7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

BOOM OR BUST! 
 

IM ALL IN

Yo you got a 24h snow map for SW Idaho?

[SnarkyGoblin]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

you dudes are riding the GFS like a rented mule.  how much faith are you trying to put in that thing?

At least it's a sign that a complete "bust" is less likely.

[Skagit Weather]

We better hope that the Mesoscale models (HRRR and RAP) are as bad as they usually are because they continue to trend north with each new hour of runs. Their 21z runs have it almost raining in Bellingham tomorrow morning.

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

How much for Oregon?

 

[Hawksfan2008]

This looks fun 

[Doinko]

KPTV looks even colder for highs

[Timmy]

does the WRF not distinguish ZR/sleet/snow?  or does it actually think its gonna snow?

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Reminiscent of Dec 1996.

Doubt it lasts more than a few days to a week though.  Looking like we are back to troughing by New Years.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, jakerepp said:

Yo you got a 24h snow map for SW Idaho?

Yea what airport code is nearby?

[bainbridgekid]

On a plane to Chicago. Bummed to miss this one as everything I’m seeing suggests a widespread 3-5” snowstorm from at least Seattle to Bellingham with probably a 5-8” band just North of the low and isolated 8-10” totals where convergence persists into tomorrow night. Looks like a doozy.

I’ll be pulling hard for you all to score which will be made significantly easier by the potential historic blizzard Chicago is expecting Thursday/Friday.

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

I'm only putting stock into moisture availability which is seemingly quite decent-- I really hope this much sleet doesn't actually fall because that is easily the worst precip type 

[SnowPlz]

4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

you dudes are riding the GFS like a rented mule.  how much faith are you trying to put in that thing?

I’m gonna name my mule Carrots. He’s my best friend and he says it’s gonna snow here forever 

[Timmy]

Just now, Doinko said:

KPTV looks even colder for highs

I have 3 Christmas eve services Saturday 2:30, 4 and 5:30pm. how do ya'll think Scappoose looks at that time? we are not super close to the gorge but also blocked form the south wind by a lot.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

This looks fun 

The screw line is literally right on top of me in north Tacoma lol. It’s going to be really interesting tomorrow. I don’t think it’ll switch over to rain north of Seattle. 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Timmy said:

does the WRF not distinguish ZR/sleet/snow?  or does it actually think its gonna snow?

Yeah, the WRF is pretty bad with these deep cold pool overrunning setups.