PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Terreboner]

Working on a 9.5/3.9 day so far, currently 4.4, windchill of -10.  Luckily my 2 calls were indoors this morning.

Grabbed some coffee and now sitting in my 70 degree dining room waiting for some snow.  Life is good!!!

[OysterPrintout]

12 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

That precip to the west is looking a bit better than I thought. 850s over PDX at 0c to -1c. I am further west and should be about +0.5c. Obviously we will have some initial wet bulbing up there. If I'm going to see any snow at all with this event it will probably be in the next hour or two. 

did modeling have any of that W to E precip reaching us? I thought most of it showed from the SW

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, runninthruda206 said:

I watched this movie over a hundred times as a kid lol

Lol. I just watched it the other night on Prime Video..outside of the LoTR trilogy, it’s probably my next most watched movie.

[bishbish777]

As we get closer to the event, this looks to be trending drier, especially for the initial wave.

[Hawksfan2008]

[Perturbed Member]

1 minute ago, OysterPrintout said:

did modeling have any of that W to E precip reaching us? I thought most of it showed from the SW

As far as I'm aware, no they do not. Some of the models toyed around with having this initial band hit us earlier on but they have moved away from that a while ago and now all models pretty much hold off until 4-5PM or later and hit us from the SW with that main band. 

I still suspect this precip will struggle against this dry air but it is looking a bit more organized than I expected at this time. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Freezing rain starting...27F.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

22 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Well, Euro weeklies do come out tonight

Each frame is a 5 day average

[FroYoBro]

4 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

As far as I'm aware, no they do not. Some of the models toyed around with having this initial band hit us earlier on but they have moved away from that a while ago and now all models pretty much hold off until 4-5PM or later and hit us from the SW with that main band. 

I still suspect this precip will struggle against this dry air but it is looking a bit more organized than I expected at this time. 

I still think we have quite a few hours of waiting for anything to reach the ground in the Portland area.
 

Would love to be wrong though. It’s cold, but would love some frozen precip. to make the visuals match the winter feel. 

[Hawksfan2008]

[Omegaraptor]

21 at PDX at mid-day. Pretty incredible given the ground is completely bare.

Totally overcast up above, and at the surface the conditions are dry even by Great Basin standards.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The Seattle NWS has turned into a fukin Joke. 

The warning should of been issued 8 hrs ago.

[awright-31]

Winter Storm Warning issued

[Requiem]

13 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Seems way too dry down here-- definitely overdoing the sleet g

[HuskyMaestro]

7 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

I’m pretty surprised too, no upgrade to a WSW or ice storm warning for the South Sound. Could really save a lot of lives had they wrote up warnings hours ago. 

Edit: JUST as I posted this, it got upgraded to a WSW. What in the world.. they listening in on us. 

Edited December 22, 2022 by HuskyMaestro

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Rich Marriott is in full panic mode.

[The Cats Meow]

1 minute ago, HuskyMaestro said:

I’m pretty surprised too, no upgrade to a WSW or ice storm warning for the South Sound. Could really save a lot of lives had they wrote up warnings hours ago. 

Edit: JUST as I posted this, it got upgraded to a WSW. What in the world.. they listening in on us. 

I'm sure they have someone here monitoring the situation.  They clearly don't seem to be competent.

[RentonHill]

11 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Each frame is a 5 day average

old run. dont see new one coming out yet

[Jbolin]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Rich Marriott is in full panic mode.

He does that when he loses more of what little hair he has left.

[WildrootParable]

6 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

I’m pretty surprised too, no upgrade to a WSW or ice storm warning for the South Sound. Could really save a lot of lives had they wrote up warnings hours ago. 

Edit: JUST as I posted this, it got upgraded to a WSW. What in the world.. they listening in on us. 

I think they've been burned so many times by getting over-communicative about winter storms and then can't handle the inevitable frustration from the citizenry when an event doesn't go as predicted, especially if people have canceled plans or panic-bought every loaf of bread from every grocery store within a ten mile radius.

But it seems to me that it's better to overcommunicate and be wrong than undercommunicate and place people in potential danger. Being wrong and getting yelled at is better than being right, not saying anything, and being indirectly responsible for preventable harm. 

[Perturbed Member]

7 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

I still think we have quite a few hours of waiting for anything to reach the ground in the Portland area.
 

Would love to be wrong though. It’s cold, but would love some frozen precip. to make the visuals match the winter feel. 

I suspect you are right. The HRRR shows this precip to our west but still doesn't show anything worthwhile reaching PDX for several hours. 

Might be flurrying for a while before that but I don't think anything will be accumulating until this evening. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Big argument on the local FB page last night about whether our area had a 3’ snow event in February 1982 or 1985. I chimed in and said it had to have been 1985, but I was ignored and everyone decided it must have been 1982.

Annoying. The park recorded about 18” with that event, given their spotty measuring, and that most of our community is a little higher we probably did get more, but my guess is not actually 3’.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just cloudy and windy at the office in Salem. I’ve heard some reports of flurries in South Salem and Corvallis, but I haven’t seen anything myself. 

[awright-31]

2 minutes ago, WildrootParable said:

I think they've been burned so many times by getting over-communicative about winter storms and then can't handle the inevitable frustration from the citizenry when an event doesn't go as predicted, especially if people have canceled plans or panic-bought every loaf of bread from every grocery store within a ten mile radius.

But it seems to me that it's better to overcommunicate and be wrong than undercommunicate and place people in potential danger. Being wrong and getting yelled at is better than being right, not saying anything, and being indirectly responsible for preventable harm. 

I think since the windstorm that wasn’t in 2016 they just haven’t been the same. That was really ugly. Seems like every time we have a potential high impact event, we are looking for warnings, and they don’t come until the event is about to start or already has started.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

7 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

old run. dont see new one coming out yet

Yeah you're right.  Misread it.  Will update with the new one when it comes out.

[MossMan]

Lots of Pepto for everyone! 

[Requiem]

Mark posted a new blog update-- his thinking is the same, and thinks the EURO warms us up too fast. He also notes that this is the biggest easterly pressure gradient he's seen in his career, and possibly the biggest since December 1983.

[Slushy Inch]

36 minutes ago, bishbish777 said:

As we get closer to the event, this looks to be trending drier, especially for the initial wave.

Was never supposed to reach us until 4am...

[Deweydog]

The pretreatment makes it look like some kind of frozen precip fell from the sky! Suck it, Whatcom County!!

[Weiner Warrior]

21 degrees and my nose just started bleeding. Still dry out

 

 

[RentonHill]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The pretreatment makes it look like some kind of frozen precip fell from the sky! Suck it, Whatcom County!!

You got a hemi in that thing?

[RentonHill]

[Jbolin]

Looks like I was 98.3% correct in my prediction of wind conditions at Crown Point from a couple days ago.

[RentonHill]

I have no idea why the wxmodels maps are so weird at the end. WB maps dont look like that. 

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Of course FEB looks good. 

[BLI snowman]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Big argument on the local FB page last night about whether our area had a 3’ snow event in February 1982 or 1985. I chimed in and said it had to have been 1985, but I was ignored and everyone decided it must have been 1982.

Annoying. The park recorded about 18” with that event, given their spotty measuring, and that most of our community is a little higher we probably did get more, but my guess is not actually 3’.

Tell those plebes  Little bit of snow in February 1982 too but 1985 was way bigger. Super obvi. 

[Doinko]

12 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Mark posted a new blog update-- his thinking is the same, and thinks the EURO warms us up too fast. He also notes that this is the biggest easterly pressure gradient he's seen in his career, and possibly the biggest since December 1983.

I thought the gradient in January 2017 (around the 7th) was a bit higher?

[JW8]

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I thought the gradient in January 2017 (around the 7th) was a bit higher?

Never mind, that was around -13 I think