November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[LowerGarfield]

11 hours ago, RentonHill said:

Euro/GEM wetter than SloBro

I would say maybr Vaporeon.

[Cold Snap]

3 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Here we go!

It’s coming!

[The Blob]

Anyone want to buy a tree house?

[Ken in Wood Village]

Here it comes 🌧

[umadbro]

Nearly no visibility between Ridgefield and salmon creek this morning. 

[MossMan]

.02” overnight. Currently mostly clear and mild. 
had a snowy morning 6 years ago today. Then a white Christmas, than an epic second half of February! That was a very nice winter! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What’s going on with the EPS?! Are we looking at an early December BLAST?! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

November started out wet and cool with a 51/45 day on Wednesday, with just over an inch of rain out here. Classic warm front overriding cool air in place that day, with temps peaking late morning before the rain started, then falling into the mid-40s by late afternoon with evaporative cooling and Gorge winds holding on through midnight.

Yesterday went from cool with light rain and drizzle in the morning (low of 48) to startlingly mild by noon or so, with sunbreaks and mild SSW winds pushing temps into the mid 60s. 64/48 day here.

Overnight clearing has since allowed some of the densest fog of the season so far to form this morning. Visibility around 1/8 mile or less currently, with a temp of 46. Looking forward to another soaker starting later today.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Last night’s EPS did not look too bad. On the wet side and near average temps overall. At least in the upper levels. Probably won’t be getting cold nights again anytime soon with such an active wavetrain.

 

[Phishy Wx]

29 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What’s going on with the EPS?! Are we looking at an early December BLAST?! 

post it!

[RentonHill]

[Phil]

 

https://x.com/drjeffmasters/status/1720475502752768252?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 hours ago, The Blob said:

Anyone want to buy a tree house?

Perkins Lane? Got landslide?

[SouthHillFrosty]

New model alert!!!

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

New model alert!!!

Yes we CANsips!

That just looks really wet for you guys, though.

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

New model alert!!!

Looks good for CA. All the cold is over in Russia/Eurasia, though.

Though I don’t trust that model after it showed a cold winter here last year. End result was the warmest winter in history. Betrayed I was.

[Phil]

20 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yes we CANsips!

That just looks really wet for you guys, though.

That is kind of a STJ spitfire roast for the lower-48 despite the 500mb anomalies.

I’d take my chances that storm track though. Better than anything we’ve had in 2+ years despite the lack of cold.

[Phil]

After a slow start, Siberia/Eurasia snowcover has expanded rapidly over the last 10 days.

Let’s get that Siberian high cranking. From there we can build the +WPO/AL pattern that’ll eventually augment wave activity, disrupt the PV, and dislodge the arctic cold pool.

[Front Ranger]

37 minutes ago, Phil said:

That is kind of a STJ spitfire roast for the lower-48 despite the 500mb anomalies.

I’d take my chances that storm track though. Better than anything we’ve had in 2+ years despite the lack of cold.

Warm here. As I've said a few times, I think my area will see extended periods of torching this cold season...far cry from last year.

[iFred]

https://blog.research.google/2023/11/metnet-3-state-of-art-neural-weather.html

 

Got to see some demos of this. There are raw outputs that might make it feasible for high res 90 day models with a good degree of accuracy.

[Snownerd3000]

10 hours ago, Cold Snap said:

It’s coming!

You have anymore of those hour 768 snow maps? 

[Phil]

41 minutes ago, iFred said:

https://blog.research.google/2023/11/metnet-3-state-of-art-neural-weather.html

 

Got to see some demos of this. There are raw outputs that might make it feasible for high res 90 day models with a good degree of accuracy.

Interesting approach to assimilation. Turning that into a functional long range model (esp at that resolution) would be a challenge, though? How are they planning to do that?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

That is kind of a STJ spitfire roast for the lower-48 despite the 500mb anomalies.

I’d take my chances that storm track though. Better than anything we’ve had in 2+ years despite the lack of cold.

I've seen a lot worse in January. lol. Wet and average seems fine by me. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I've seen a lot worse in January. lol. Wet and average seems fine by me. 

Possibly some foothill action for y'all.

[RentonHill]

Todays spaghetti

 

[Front Ranger]

Not the worst.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Some dumpage for the ski resorts on the EC

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Up to 66F in the warm sector. EUG at 63F.

[Cold Snap]

2 hours ago, Snownerd3000 said:

You have anymore of those hour 768 snow maps? 

Here’s the GEFS!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Up to 55.9°F here.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Member 18 looks like a winner.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Kinda curious what this is on radar/ what is causing it…

[the_convergence_zone]

8 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Kinda curious what this is on radar/ what is causing it…

If I had to guess, I would say it's isentropic lift along the warm front hitting a shallow unstable layer.

The 4/3 km UW WRF resolved it, amazingly enough. 

[Meatyorologist]

7 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

If I had to guess, I would say it's isentropic lift along the warm front hitting a shallow unstable layer.

The 4/3 km UW WRF resolved it, amazingly enough. 

That model is good with midlevel details.

[Ken in Wood Village]

I will admit, that's a beautiful low pressure system 🌧

[Cold Snap]

CANSIPS showing a return to La Niña at the end of next summer.

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

CANSIPS showing a return to La Niña at the end of next summer.

Mild -PDO look too

[Phil]

34 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

CANSIPS showing a return to La Niña at the end of next summer.

I believe that is unlikely to verify. For now I’d expect a progression similar to 1957/58 to 1958/59.

The IPWP is poised to extend eastward as we progress through solar maximum. Would expect a more +PDO/+ENSO theme for the remainder of the 2020s following this El Niño.

I suppose it’s possible the interdecadal IPWP extension could wait until 2025, but given the ongoing niño and higher solar cycle amplitude, I don’t see why it would.

[Omegaraptor]

68 in Eugene at 7PM this November 3rd. I guess Oregon is just a full blown subtropical climate now.

[Gradient Keeper]

We'll be in a Nina sooner than next Summer. MBG Money Back Guarantee.