January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[TT-SEA]

No valley fog here this morning...

[Ken in Wood Village]

This is the control run of the 12Z GFS for my area. I'm thinking big changes will happen around the 6th. The temperatures I think around that time are being conservative, I think they maybe lower just because I don't think the model handles the East Wind factor very well. At the end of the run, looks like a possibility of a Arctic Outbreak with high temperatures in the 20’s. The start of January looks to be very interesting 🌬🌨

[Tyler Mode]

Drove down to the Columbia River this morning.  Always love watching the sun rise for the first of the year.  Still cloudy at home after my coldest low of the year so far, 38.4.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Low temp of 20.8, and right now we're experiencing the highest recorded temp all year, of 26.9. It's awful that we now get our yearly record highs in January...

[TT-SEA]

Wow... talk about a crash. 

[SnowWillarrive]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... talk about a crash. 

All that record warmth must be paid back interest. 

[Winterdog]

Always nice to start out the year below freezing.  Had a low of 29 and now 32 with a blue dappled sky.  Happy New Year to all.

[Deweydog]

20 years ago RIGHT NOW we woke up to quite the surprise thanks to a residual cold air mass and STRONG cyclogenesis in a suppressed jet. Five inches of unpredicted snowfall made even more difficult to predict due to intoxicating beverages.

HAPPY NEW YEAR! Hope this year is the year we all get the mental health counseling we so desperately need!!

[MV_snow]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Boom!

How ironic would it be if the swamp was the big winner with this?

[ShawniganLake]

Nice cluster of members on the GEPS showing arctic air after the 10th. 

[snow_wizard]

How bout that 12z GFS? 

[LowerGarfield]

4 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

How ironic would it be if the swamp was the big winner with this?

They'd have to stop calling it the swamp.

@SilverFallsAndrew had better run to Portland this week to buy Kale before the normals realize what could happen.

[MWG]

1 hour ago, LowerGarfield said:

I really don't want to jinx it for her, but I think we should all have a party at @MWG's school in Medford as they could be the big winner in nearly all the events. Really shocking if true.

Lol no one can jinx this more than NWS in Medford . Don’t get me wrong they are pretty good down here and I understand how difficult it is to forecast in this area but oh boy sometimes when they put on the forecast about us getting some snow it doesn’t pan out! 
But yeah hopefully this can keep going and we get some snow down here!

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

20 years ago RIGHT NOW we woke up to quite the surprise thanks to a residual cold air mass and STRONG cyclogenesis in a suppressed jet. Five inches of unpredicted snowfall made even more difficult to predict due to intoxicating beverages.

HAPPY NEW YEAR! Hope this year is the year we all get the mental health counseling we so desperately need!!

That one was really sweet up here.  The models had shown no precip for us and the only reason it was cold enough for snow was the fact we had several hours of east wind before unexpected moisture arrived.  The end result was a very rare event where it snowed here and only rained in areas north of here.

[lowlandsnow]

12z GEFS is quite a bit worse than the 6z

[snow_wizard]

Snowpocalypse from SEA to PDX.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

12z GEFS is quite a bit worse than the 6z

The 6z was fantastic though.  Normal run to run wiggle.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The 6z was fantastic though.  Normal run to run wiggle.

I agree with this opinion. 

[The Blob]

It's already started....

[snow_wizard]

12z vs 6z GEFS also depends what part of the run you look at.  At this time here the 12z was better.

[snow_wizard]

I also love the fact the earlier stuff has trended colder now as well.  The 6z EPS was colder than the 0z for next weekend.

[Tyler Mode]

25 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

20 years ago RIGHT NOW we woke up to quite the surprise thanks to a residual cold air mass and STRONG cyclogenesis in a suppressed jet. Five inches of unpredicted snowfall made even more difficult to predict due to intoxicating beverages.

HAPPY NEW YEAR! Hope this year is the year we all get the mental health counseling we so desperately need!!

I flew out to Alaska for the first time that morning.  Roads weren't bad, they got worse.  My car was stuck at work until I got home.  I remember the WSW and Blizzard Warnings for the gorge as I was up in crystal clear Petersburg. 

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I also love the fact the earlier stuff has trended colder now as well.  The 6z EPS was colder than the 0z for next weekend.

Definitely saw things trend a notch cooler with the first trough this morning. 

[Phishy Wx]

setting up the other pull nicely

 

[ShawniganLake]

10 day WRF snowfall  

 

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

setting up the other pull nicely

 

I wouldn’t consider us close enough to rug pull range even if the models took a turn for the worst right now. This is a long ways out on the models still…

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

10 day WRF snowfall  

 

Here's the map of Oregon for those of us who do not live in Washington or northern Oregon. A ton of snow in my area!

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow, that's about a -15 anomaly here, that would put us in the teens. 

thats -0 here with a -30+ anomoly

[Norwood]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I wouldn’t consider us close enough to rug pull range even if the models took a turn for the worst right now. This is a long ways out on the models still…

Too late, I've already added frolicking in the snow to my itinerary. 

[Phil]

50 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... talk about a crash. 

GFS doing GFS things. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The potential with this is off the charts, once it gets started there's going to be many different ways to get snow.  Wr might even get strong cold onshore flow snow! And it's freaking JANUARY. 

[OysterPrintout]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I wouldn’t consider us close enough to rug pull range even if the models took a turn for the worst right now. This is a long ways out on the models still…

yeah we've had some pretty different solutions in the last 48 hours. A lot of roads lead to Rome on them but you can't pull the rug until the pattern has established some sort of consistency according to the weather forum bylaws.

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

yeah we've had some pretty different solutions in the last 48 hours. A lot of roads lead to Rome on them but you can't pull the rug until the pattern has established some sort of consistency according to the weather forum bylaws.

Looks like it’ll be much cooler and more interesting than anything we’ve had recently atleast. 

[westcoastexpat]

The ensemble range is quite wild. Definitely significant uncertainty but at least there's potential. Control runs a bit disappointing with the 12Z though.

[Phishy Wx]

Wunderground thinks its coming I guess

 

 

[Timmy]

Euro is on board 

[Weiner Warrior]

Out having brunch. Just told everyone at the table it's going to snow. 

[FroYoBro]

56 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

20 years ago RIGHT NOW we woke up to quite the surprise thanks to a residual cold air mass and STRONG cyclogenesis in a suppressed jet. Five inches of unpredicted snowfall made even more difficult to predict due to intoxicating beverages.

HAPPY NEW YEAR! Hope this year is the year we all get the mental health counseling we so desperately need!!

I have very strong memories of this day. Probably my first big event that made me want to figure out what happened. Found Mark’s blog that same winter.

[OysterPrintout]

12z ecmwf block isn't quite as sturdy and positioning not quite as favorable as GFS (but what would be) so Vegas is the real winner. Day 8-9 looks pretty good though. Lot of potential.

[MossMan]

30 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The potential with this is off the charts, once it gets started there's going to be many different ways to get snow.  Wr might even get strong cold onshore flow snow! And it's freaking JANUARY. 

Not only in January but a raging El Niño to boot! Wow!!