Still all playing out like '19, '20, and '21.
Try a mental exercise, close your eyes.
Think of cold, snow, a wintery landscape. Think of the cityscapes of Vancouver, Seattle, Portland, and Eugene, and picture them with just globs of snow heaped over them. Keep your eyes closed and imagine maps filled with those pepto pinks and purples. Imagine that arctic air spilling over Vancouver Island and making its way back to Washington and Oregon. Imagine regional blizzard warnings and snow cov
Yeah, the delta on Monday will be telling with Graphcast and Spire. People forget (or don't know) that both models only work off of initialization data and then use various degrees of image based machine learning at very high terrain definitions. Its effectively taking those analog lists to the next level. This means though that there is no real condition modeling taking place, but rather a "I think this feature will develop here because it typically does when these patterns at these levels are
This is not anything like 2016. Trump was still relatively unknown in the political sphere, with many voters unsure how he would ultimately act and carry himself as president. This allowed for a bit of a "well maybe he'll change his attitude once he has the gravity of the presidential office around him" that more moderate voters convinced themselves as they held their nose and voted for him. Pair that unknown quantity with a Hillary Clinton campaign that figured they could just coast to victory because surely nobody would vote for that crazy guy over there, and you have yourself a good recipe for a surprise electoral whalloping.
There will be no real surprises here. Biden and Trump are known quantities. Their strengths, their weaknesses, their temperaments, how they govern, their base of support. It's all pretty much baked in at this point. The only possibility for a surprise is third party candidates and whether RFK will play spoiler to one or the other. That being said, there is always the hubub around third parties in the run-up to the election but rarely do they end up actually making a difference. One could argue Jill Stein spoiled some typical Blue Wall states in 2016 but again, I'd place the majority of that blame on Hillary Clinton being an incredibly uninspiring candidate and taking many votes for granted.
To be clear: I'm not saying it couldn't happen, I'm saying it most likely won't. Biden is still the favorite to squeak out a win, in my book. My only hope is that a fourth election loss in a row will finally be enough to wake up my party so that we can move on from this toxic Trump brand. It's probably a pipe dream but it's about the only hope I have at this point.
Trump lost the popular vote by 2% and got over 300 EV in 2016. I'm not making a prediction at this point but it's entirely plausible for him to get over 300 EV.
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