January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

10 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Someone on here will be getting nuked this weekend…But who will that someone be…

Shows my location getting 15"+.  In addition to the 10 inches or so today/tonight.  And ridiculous amounts over the next 10 days.  Probably won't be that much, but we will have the cold air and the shown pattern is perfect for heavy snow. Especially with high qpf ratios due to the really cold air.

Maybe similar to the 30-40" we got in 24 hours almost exactly 2 years ago.  Probably won't happen, actually that snow was very hard to deal with even for us, so I don't want that much.

Hope you get a huge snowfall!

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

If I still lived in Seattle, I wouldn't complain about this.

Getting cute going metric on us?  I saw 18 and did a double take.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

If I still lived in Seattle, I wouldn't complain about this.

I think there’s going to be a pretty significant ice out of this. The models get rid of low level cold too quickly all the time. January 2012. 

[theRunner]

What does this mean for the eastside of seattle, especially areas at 500+ feet? Could we still see a large snow event?

 

[the_convergence_zone]

6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

If I still lived in Seattle, I wouldn't complain about this.

Are we sure it isn't counting freezing rain in the snowfall amounts? 

Edit -- never mind, plot is in Canadian units. 

[North_County]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It has nothing to do with deserve. 

Obviously Mossman is always going to get his. But if we're talking about north of Everett in general not deserving snow, I'd like to point out how easy it is to forget how frequently Whatcom County and the Fraser Valley get skunked in the snow department while the rest of the region is scoring. Too often I'm dealing with barely a dusting of fine snow particles and a bitterly-cold dry NE wind, just so that I can be the sacrifice that allows enough cold air to push into Puget Sound and bury Seattle in powder.

I'm not complaining, mind you. Weather has absolutely nothing to do with why I live where I live. But it's been a few years since I've had a snowfall worth remembering. Which is a bit at odds with the idea that the north always scores.

[Requiem]

Not that it particularly makes a huge difference, but the 18z GEFS is thus far improved 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, theRunner said:

What does this mean for the eastside of seattle, especially areas at 500+ feet? Could we still see a large snow event?

 

Yes.

[Requiem]

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I think i'm going to just start listing to the weather radio again.

[AlTahoe]

Gfs is frustrating. Euro has been showing our strongest storm of the year for this Saturday but the Gfs doesn't show anything. The Baja ridge has been way stronger than normal this year so maybe the Gfs is correct? 

[Phishy Wx]

19 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

At this rate it will be all rain south of Squamish BC 

snowWillNOTarrive

[BLI snowman]

23 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Absolutely bonkers how the 504dm 1000-500mb thickness line passes into WA and Seattle might not even get outflow.

Yeah, I'm trying to rack my brain for some analogs and really can't think of any. 

Seems like the kind of thing that would only happen in a modern January.

[Omegaraptor]

I hate winter. What a worthless season.

[Meatyorologist]

5 minutes ago, theRunner said:

What does this mean for the eastside of seattle, especially areas at 500+ feet? Could we still see a large snow event?

 

The odds for an unusually large snow event are elevated far above background climo for just about everyone from Medford up to Prince Rupert. Especially PDX northward. At least one large snowstorm, probably more than one, will likely impact the region between Friday and Sunday.

[Phishy Wx]

11 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

@Phishy Wx what do you think of the 18z so far for us east siders?

haven't looked been in a meeting until just now

[Rubus Leucodermis]

9 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Are we sure it isn't counting freezing rain in the snowfall amounts? 

That map is just the snow, but you would get blessed with sleet and ice, too!

[Front Ranger]

DEN doesn't even get below 0 on the 18z. Then again, in Jan 1998 we only got down to 7.

[Olive1010]

Anyone have a meteogram

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

That map is just the snow, but you would get blessed with sleet and ice, too!

I could do without that.   

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, I'm trying to rack my brain for some analogs and really can't think of any. 

Seems like the kind of thing that would only happen in a modern January.

It feels so especially cruel. January 2020 actually had a weaker airmass; this current one is one of the stronger ones of this century.

Time is running out on seeing single digits again in my lifetime. I already feel sad enough that I've thus far missed out on that, but think about all the poor kids with no memories of the deepish cold in Dec 2008 and Nov 2010 like I do, who only have the warm-coded snow events of the last decade.

At least I might be able to knock off that 'foot in one storm' item from my bucket list this weekend, if all goes right.

[Deweydog]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I think i'm going to just start listing to the weather radio again.

Felt like meeting an A-list celeb when I got to tour the Warrenton NWS office and sit in the little broadcast/recording room. Immediately recognized the Met from the SWS’s leading up to the 1989 blast which had occurred about a month earlier. We geeked out about that and he walked me through how they tracked it, showed me the charts and the one computer they had which a single forecast grid from what I recall. Literally no clue it was “coming” until three days out. We could learn from that…

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

Anyone have a meteogram

18Z GFS?   Not out yet.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

New 7 day from Mark. Good forecast for now. Late Friday to Saturday looks like the timeframe for something to happen.

[Olive1010]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS?   Not out yet.  

Just like one from an online site, I don't have weather bell

[SnowWillarrive]

20 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

If I still lived in Seattle, I wouldn't complain about this.

I’m going to frame this. 

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Frontal Snowsquall said:

New 7 day from Mark. Good forecast for now. Late Friday to Saturday looks like the timeframe for something to happen.

Nice. This looks like a very reasonable forecast.

[Meatyorologist]

If KSEA manages a high under 27F it would be the coldest in fourteen years. Not hedging my bets but if we time the outflow right...

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

16 minutes ago, North_County said:

Obviously Mossman is always going to get his. But if we're talking about north of Everett in general not deserving snow, I'd like to point out how easy it is to forget how frequently Whatcom County and the Fraser Valley get skunked in the snow department while the rest of the region is scoring. Too often I'm dealing with barely a dusting of fine snow particles and a bitterly-cold dry NE wind, just so that I can be the sacrifice that allows enough cold air to push into Puget Sound and bury Seattle in powder.

I'm not complaining, mind you. Weather has absolutely nothing to do with why I live where I live. But it's been a few years since I've had a snowfall worth remembering. Which is a bit at odds with the idea that the north always scores.

I lived in Bellingham for several decades.  And we did often get skunked in that situation.  But Bellingham at least had that magical White Christmas a couple of years ago.  Wish I could have experienced that when I lived there.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

Just like one from an online site, I don't have weather bell

No idea.   Do you want 18Z GFS from WB when it's ready?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Felt like meeting an A-list celeb when I got to tour the Warrenton NWS office and sit in the little broadcast/recording room. Immediately recognized the Met from the SWS’s leading up to the 1989 blast which had occurred about a month earlier. We geeked out about that and he walked me through how they tracked it, showed me the charts and the one computer they had which a single forecast grid from what I recall. Literally no clue it was “coming” until three days out. We could learn from that…

Cool story, i would still be able to recognize all the original voices, i was bummed out when they switched to the computer voice.

[Requiem]

3 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

Just like one from an online site, I don't have weather bell

It's not out yet for the 18z

[Phishy Wx]

12 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, I'm trying to rack my brain for some analogs and really can't think of any. 

Seems like the kind of thing that would only happen in a modern January.

Tonga'd

[Requiem]

Winter is officially UNcanceled Portland north spread the word because we finally saw a reasonably improved GEFS run 

[westcoastexpat]

[Doinko]

Just now, Requiem said:

Winter is officially UNcanceled Portland north spread the word because we finally saw a reasonably improved GEFS run 

I definitely think here in PDX we could see a decent event. Even if it's just a little bit of snow the strong Gorge winds would be exciting

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, westcoastexpat said:

warm up before the Feb SSW cool down

[RaleighHillsRunner]

15 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The odds for an unusually large snow event are elevated far above background climo for just about everyone from Medford up to Prince Rupert. Especially PDX northward. At least one large snowstorm, probably more than one, will likely impact the region between Friday and Sunday.

[Olive1010]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No idea.   Do you want 18Z GFS from WB when it's ready?

Yeah, sounds good, I just found a Meteogram generator site

[Phil]

17 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I hate winter. What a worthless season.

Did you mean to say summer? Because that’s the most worthless season of all.