January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[RentonHill]

8 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Does Spire have snow maps?

This is the best view. And looking closer it doesn't show diddly for PDX or OR, so I might have been reading something into nothing...it appears its just favoring a GFS like solution rather than a combo. 

[AlTahoe]

38 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

@AlTahoe if these southern solutions verify, we're gonna get buried this weekend.

Hope so cause it looks dry and very warm after that for at least a week or two. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Moderate rain!

I feel your pain

[OysterPrintout]

 

[Sometimesdylan]

Downtown Juneau from the cruise ship dock as of 15 minutes ago. Love watching the ice gulleys on Mt Juneau form in winter. Later in winter its south aspect makes it not form up as easily. 

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I feel your pain

The GFS was right again

[MossMan]

21 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Nothing on the 9th? Seattle area had a widespread 2-3" with that on the back end of the cold spell as the jet stream moved back north. Seem to recall it extending up to about Stanwood.

I only have this picture from the day before and then no pictures until the 14th and those were non snow pics. I’m usually all over any snowfall with pictures lol. But cannot confirm for sure. 

[Kayla]

I'm back in Bozeman so I'll be tracking the Arctic front on Thursday. Should be hit with a snow squall line here in about an hour so that outta be fun!

I'm super excited to see what PDX sees tonight! Pretty classic setup for a nice little snow dump.

[Deweydog]

Just now, MossMan said:

I only have this picture from the day before and then no pictures until the 14th and those were non snow pics. I’m usually all over any snowfall with pictures lol. But cannot confirm for sure. 

Things looked different here.

[ajreich]

GEFS direction is pretty clear. Total cave to the colder solutions.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

The GFS was right again

But everyone is on the Euro train.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow per control run.

[RentonHill]

It looks like there's half a dozen or more EPS members who drop some legit snow for OR and WA with the last push. 

 

[Deweydog]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

But everyone is on the Euro train.

Could end up with a reputation stain

[Cold Snap]

20 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

the Spire may be onto something. It has the initial push south like euro but it has the second low come in higher a la GFS. Sorry map isnt closer up options are limited

 

It would sure be nice if we could all score something decent.

[Front Ranger]

14 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I don't have a lot of confidence in the Euro at this point. It has been struggling with this pattern since the onset. 

Agreed, but also pretty much every other model is closer to its camp than the GFS. I do think that means something at this range.

[Winterdog]

The Euro shows all of the one inch of snow falls in the Seattle to Everett area by late tomorrow night before the arctic air even moves in.  The inch of slop will be long gone before the cold air gets there.

[BLI snowman]

11 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I still wonder if they overcorrected for its raging mid range cold bias when they did the upgrade. There have been other events in the recent pasts where it has been one of the first to lock onto cold in the long range, only to drop the ball in the 5-7 day range and stubbornly dig its heels almost right up to verification.

Yeah, I'd need to go back and look since the model rides all sorta blend together for me. But it feels like we were having the exact same modeling war with both of the big airmasses last winter in December and February. I do think the change correlates with the upgrade they did in late 2022, since the 2021-22 airmasses were still being severely oversold on the GFS. 

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I'd be really nervous if I lived up there.  Even here it's far from a sure thing now.

Not nervous here.  It’s going to be cold and windy and wintery.   EPS has been consistent on the possibility of this being close to the coldest upper level airmass of this century for YVR.  A little snow would be nice though. 

[Kayla]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Agreed, but also pretty much every other model is closer to its camp than the GFS. I do think that means something at this range.

You mean like 3 days ago when the Euro/CMC were showing -50F here? The GFS has been steadfast and that has to mean something.

[Cold Snap]

Micheal Snyder mentioned in his video this morning about the precip extending further north than modeled.

[Front Ranger]

10 minutes ago, Sometimesdylan said:

Downtown Juneau from the cruise ship dock as of 15 minutes ago. Love watching the ice gulleys on Mt Juneau form in winter. Later in winter its south aspect makes it not form up as easily. 

Not many places with a downtown so close to both water and mountains. Pretty cool.

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, Cold Snap said:

Micheal Snyder mentioned in his video this morning about the precip extending further north than modeled.

He also mentioned that PDX could "potentially" see flakes fly tonight also

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Kayla said:

You mean like 3 days ago when the Euro/CMC were showing -50F here? The GFS has been steadfast and that has to mean something.

Looks like Whitefish is forecast to hit -30F

[SeanNyberg]

8 minutes ago, ajreich said:

GEFS direction is pretty clear. Total cave to the colder solutions.

 

Where?

[Gradient Keeper]

Not bad.

[Randyc321]

38 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I think PDX to Seattle will have a major snowstorm. I think the GFS will lead the way with a bullseye over Olympia/Chehalis .

I agree with that general area for the bullseye, or even down to Kelso.  It seems reasonable given the current model spread and stubborness.

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

Where?

On the chart 

[Front Ranger]

10 minutes ago, Kayla said:

You mean like 3 days ago when the Euro/CMC were showing -50F here? The GFS has been steadfast and that has to mean something.

I'm just talking about what's being shown now in the short term.

But the GFS has gotten significantly colder for you and everyone else compared to a couple days ago. Check out the 12z run from two days ago for Monday am.

 

Way colder today.

[BLI snowman]

34 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Agree with first two points, but to be fair the spread with low placement is not much greater for GFS than for Euro and CMC.

Not just with regards to low placement, but the intensity of the cold airmass itself.

This is the OP at 90 hours:

 

 

vs. the GEFS.

 

 

Significantly less aggressive across the region, with some laughably big differences in places (21 degrees at PDX). And this is with the same input data being fed into each....

If you compare the Euro to the EPS at the same time, the differences are comparatively minute.

 

Edited January 9 by BLI snowman

[Mercurial]

9 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like Whitefish is forecast to hit -30F

Yay

[Skagit Weather]

22 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Might just be an Oregon event and us western Washington folks will have to see what it’s like being down there for once lol. We will see though going to be interesting! 

For once? The 2010s were full of times Oregon did significantly better than WA. I mean even in the last few years they've had some crazy snowfall numbers (although obviously we've done better up here on the cold and lasting snow in the last few years).

If they end up getting heavy snowfall, I'll be ecstatic, but this isn't the first time with a possibility of them getting snow while we're left cold and dry.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Skagit Weather said:

For once? The 2010s were full of times Oregon did significantly better than WA. I mean even in the last few years they've had some crazy snowfall numbers (although obviously we've done better up here on the cold and lasting snow in the last few years).

If they end up getting heavy snowfall, I'll be ecstatic, but this isn't the first time with a possibility of them getting snow while we're left cold and dry.

Oh yeah I agree, but we’ve been doing way better overall since 2017. Either way who knows what’s going to actually happen yet. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Not just with regards to low placement, but the intensity of the cold airmass itself.

This is the OP at 90 hours:

 

 

vs. the GEFS.

 

 

Significantly less aggressive across the region, with some laughably big differences in places (23 degrees at PDX). And this is with the same input data being fed into each....

If you compare the Euro to the EPS at the same time, the differences are comparatively minute.

 

Which of these is the most realistic scenario given the terrain? That's your answer. 

[Doinko]

NAM looks good

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

For once? The 2010s were full of times Oregon did significantly better than WA. I mean even in the last few years they've had some crazy snowfall numbers (although obviously we've done better up here on the cold and lasting snow in the last few years).

If they end up getting heavy snowfall, I'll be ecstatic, but this isn't the first time with a possibility of them getting snow while we're left cold and dry.

Its been a long time since the seattle area had deep snow that lasted with arctic air around a few days. talking like widespread 4-8

[Front Ranger]

GFS two days ago for Sunday morning.

 

GFS today. Note how much colder it is in southern Canada and the northern Rockies, even though it's still much warmer than other models for the western lowlands.

 

I'm not seeing evidence at this point that the GFS has been leading the way with this. Doesn't mean it will definitely be wrong in the short term, of course.

[Mercurial]

5 minutes ago, Mercurial said:

Yay

Coldest recorded was -33, but we have incomplete data at our station (which has been closed since 2013)

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

NAM looks good

 

Camas special!

[LowerGarfield]

NWS Spokane is hedging. They waited as long as possible this morning to post their most recent AFD and it is pretty much a copy pasta from the last two AFDs.

"

000
FXUS66 KOTX 091947
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1147 AM PST Tue Jan 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow will continue over much of Eastern Washington and North Idaho
Today while some areas transition to rain. Strong winds Tuesday 
will lead to blizzard conditions in the Cascades and Blue 
Mountains. Winds will also be strong in Eastern Washington and 
North Idaho as well. The weather pattern will then turn much 
colder on Thursday into early next week along with additional 
chances for more snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday through Thursday: Looking at radar and satellite it is 
very evident this fast moving weather system is delivering a punch
of moisture to the region. A nicely wrapped Low is moving into 
Victoria Island and through the Strait of Juan de Fuca early this 
morning. The backside of the cloud shield and the warm front is 
pushing through the Cascades and eastern Washington saw a change 
over from snow to rain at about midnight. Since then (as of 2 am 
PST) temperatures from south-central Washington through the West 
Plains have warmed to 36-39F degrees. Southeast winds have been 
gusty 24-30 mph and continue to slowly make the shift to the south
and eventual southwest. Wenatchee to Chelan and Omak remain 
27-29F degrees and reporting snow. Given the warm front arrival a 
bit earlier, will be ending the winter weather advisory for the 
Basin and WA Palouse including Spokane a bit early this morning. 

The Cascades continue to be under the brunt of the convergence
zone. Webcams from Snoqualmie to Stevens Pass have worsened in the
last few hours with lower visibilities in snowfall. The blizzard
warning will take affect shortly as conditions are beginning to
become more widespread. 

Going forward today, the winds are forecast to begin shifting out
of the southwest between 3 am and 6 am, according to the latest
HREF and UW-wrf guidance. All things considered with wind, we
remain on track for the strongest winds to peak with widespread
sustained speeds of 20 to 30 mph and gusts 40 to 60 mph now
through this evening, about 8 - 9 pm. The ensembles have continued
to paint the Basin, the Palouse, and the West Plains through Couer
d'Alene as the prime areas to see maximized low level winds. 

Additional snow, outside the Cascades, will focus on another 
round late this afternoon/early this evening in Northeast
Washington, the Selkirks in north Idaho and the Silver Valley.
Timing of the cold pool aloft (500mb temperatures) will move east
and result in another unstable environment conducive of producing
periods of 1"/hour snowfall rates (60-80%) for areas near Lookout
Pass. An additional 6 to 10 inches of snow in the Idaho mountains
looks favorable with the west-northwest flow. 

Wednesday and Thursday we will see two weather features rotate
through bringing the very cold air from the north into the Inland
Northwest. As we've been watching this trough wobble from east to
west as it is anticipated to dig south; pin-pointing exactly where
the coldest arctic air will slide south with regard to the
Northern Rockies, it appears west of the Rockies will see those
very cold temperatures. Areas that will favor additional snow on
Wednesday will be under the northwest flow. Idaho mountains and
the Palouse down to the Camas Prairie will see accumulations under
this cold influence. Along with this northerly flow of cold air,
winds will shift from the west to north and become breezy
Thursday. Gusts 25 to 35 mph during the day Thursday will also
make the temperatures begin to take a sharp turn downward,
dropping aroudn 20-30F degrees to near zero by Friday. /Dewey

...Frigid Temperatures to end the week...

Friday through Monday: Bitterly cold and unsettled conditions are 
anticipated through much of the extended forecast. Below zero low 
temps are expected for many locations each morning through Monday, 
especially north of I-90. Chances for snow are forecast for nearly 
every day, particularly across the mountains. That said, the best 
chances for accumulating snowfall are currently looking to occur 
from a Friday afternoon through Saturday night time-frame. Amounts 
are expected to range from 1 to 4 inches (with locally higher 
amounts) for the lowlands, with greater amounts across the higher 
terrain. Confidence in snow totals is not very high at the moment as 
considerable run-to-run and model-to-model inconsistencies remain at 
this time. /KD

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS: Gusty southwest winds continue to increase and will 
remain gusty beyond 06z this evening for most locations. Low level
wind shear has potential to impact the region and most air fields
with a vigorous push of westerly flow above 2000 feet MSL.
Expecting snow showers starting around 9-14z for eastern WA and
North Idaho tomorrow.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence 
in gusty winds today persisting beyond 00z, moderate confidence in
strength continuing past 06z Wednesday. 

------------------

 

"