January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

This may be the run we've been waiting for.  The GEM and GFD parallel we're both good by day 10.  Wouldn't be shocking to see the ECMWF good at that point.

Euro is very similar at D5 with blocking features, I'll give it that. Could be interesting.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[Cloud]

25 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Quite a number of -10 and below ensemble members tonight.  Could we actually be looking at another major cold wave in February?  Really amazing to see how Feb has stepped up to the plate over the past decade.

Our strong backloaded winters in recent years is the main reason why I’ve remained optimistic and haven’t canceled winter yet. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

GEM

[luminen]

Since brutally cold air is impossible here, I will just root for extremely heavy snowfall.

COMEON !!!!!!!!!!11!!!!!1!!!!!!!!

[Meatyorologist]

Euro more west with that block at D6...

[bainbridgekid]

For the sake of accuracy, the Parallel GFS has 850mb temps around -3 for SEA and -4 in Spokane at day 10 with arctic air in Montana.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 6

GEM

Almost dead ringers for each other.  Both have the all important low cutting off NW of Hawaii.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

For the sake of accuracy, the Parallel GFS has 850mb temps around -3 for SEA and -4 in Spokane at day 10 with arctic air in Montana.

True.  It still has the high amp northerly flow and nice surface pressure gradient for well below normal temps though.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 Oooohhhh

[AbbyJr]

41 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Tonight it's the GEM that has a great run.  I'm really starting to think this is going to happen now.  The GFS operational has temporarily kind of gone off track, but I think that's just a blip.  The big story is every model is showing high amp blocking, and a low somewhere near Hawaii.  The details will sort themselves out, but it should be a ridge somewhere in the 140 to 150 range when all is said and done.  It appears the bridge to the NAO block is gaining support also.  Even the operational GFS shows that later in the run.  It appears the parallel is heading for another good run.  It's running low tonight.

It shows an all out blizzard for my region. 30cm (12 inches) of heavy snow with winds gusting around 70-90 km/h (43.4-55.9 mph) and then a direct blast of Arctic air. I'll take it. 

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, luminen said:

Since brutally cold air is impossible here, I will just root for extremely heavy snowfall.

COMEON !!!!!!!!!!11!!!!!1!!!!!!!!

It can get pretty stinking cold though.  I think Clearbrook had a few days in the 20th century with highs below 5.

[GHweatherChris]

28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Same thing happened to us... we decided to just pay for the unlimited.    The way they did it really sucked.

We just signed up for the unlimited as well and have more issues than before.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 7 Oooohhhh

Looks like gold to me!  This is getting kind of close now.

[Slushy Inch]

I have a feeling the Euro will deliver.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 Mega block

[snow_wizard]

The regular GFS is the clear outlier of the night.  Everything else is pretty nice looking by day 8 or 9.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Day 8 Mega block

Kona low baby!  Nice chilly short wave dropping into WA.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 8 Mega block

Nice chilly trough. Deep cold in the Yukon, filtering southward. Perfect block placement.

[bainbridgekid]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It can get pretty stinking cold though.  I think Clearbrook had a few days in the 20th century with highs below 5.

For some context though Atlanta's coldest HIGH is 7 and Seattle's only had 2 LOWS below 6 in the last 70 years.

Our lack of extreme cold doesn't bother me though. Below about 20 degrees you reach a point of diminishing returns for me since anything below about 25 freezes everything up solid anyway and it's harder to get snow at those temps. You also run into real headaches when temps get into the single digits and below. It's a small price to pay for our lack of extreme heat in the Summer since the proximity to the Pacific is what causes both.

[Cloud]

I’m really liking what the EURO is trying to sell. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er Close!

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

For some context though Atlanta's coldest HIGH is 7 and Seattle's only had 2 LOWS below 6 in the last 70 years.

Our lack of extreme cold doesn't bother me though. Below about 20 degrees you reach a point of diminishing returns for me since anything below about 25 freezes everything up solid anyway and it's harder to get snow at those temps. You also run into real headaches when temps get into the single digits and below. It's a small price to pay for our lack of extreme heat in the Summer since the proximity to the Pacific is what causes both.

To be fair, that Atlanta record was set in 1899 in an era where the entire country (world) was regularly much, much colder than today, including Seattle (the city got below zero in 1893 as one example). Their coldest high in the last century is 15.

But yeah, we don't see the really extreme cold temps and that's pretty nice in all honesty. One reason why I love the foothills climate or the interior PNW once you get towards Spokane and Idaho. Much more wintry than the western lowlands but still not prone to frequent subzero temps, which aren't all that fun when they happen all the time.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Jesse]

1 hour ago, GHweatherChris said:

We are having major issues the last hour as well with them.

Same.

I wasn’t able to pull up the 00z models or even this forum until I switched the WiFi off on my phone a minute ago.

[BLI snowman]

Euro is chilly but solidly in between the GFS and CMC. Which feels pretty plausible, at least with that initial plunge of arctic air around the 6th.

[Gradient Keeper]

Fun model riding ahead!

6z GFS in 2 hours 27 minutes

[snow_wizard]

Nice ECMWF run.  Brisk north winds and chilly 850s at the end with prospects for further amplification.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12z gfs will go bonkers.  

[Gradient Keeper]

That SSWE that's underway is that another Siberian warming event?

[snow_wizard]

19 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

For some context though Atlanta's coldest HIGH is 7 and Seattle's only had 2 LOWS below 6 in the last 70 years.

Our lack of extreme cold doesn't bother me though. Below about 20 degrees you reach a point of diminishing returns for me since anything below about 25 freezes everything up solid anyway and it's harder to get snow at those temps. You also run into real headaches when temps get into the single digits and below. It's a small price to pay for our lack of extreme heat in the Summer since the proximity to the Pacific is what causes both.

Who cares?  It can get cold here for much longer periods.  Look at Seattle's monthly average in Jan 1950 compared to Atlanta's coldest.  In fact that 24.9 beats several cities east of the Rockies and they aren't all in the South.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

12z gfs will go bonkers.  

This is starting to look real now.

[TacomaWaWx]

Up to 0.24” today...9.03”on the month. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Nice trends on the models...February’s going to have to be pretty decent to save this first nina winters reputation. 

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Who cares?  It can get cold here for much longer periods.  Look at Seattle's monthly average in Jan 1950 compared to Atlanta's coldest.  In fact that 24.9 beats several cities east of the Rockies and they aren't all in the South.

You don't have to go very far north of Atlanta to find much colder weather east of the Rockies. Even the latitude of Nashville or Oklahoma City regularly outperforms the PNW for cold temps. It shouldn't be hard to admit that....

[Kolk1604]

Anyone buying the parallel? Still on dial-up, but it's cold for the 3rd run in a row. Even 10 days out it's pretty chilly.

Can't wait for the EPS

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

EPS so far:

[bainbridgekid]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Who cares?  It can get cold here for much longer periods.  Look at Seattle's monthly average in Jan 1950 compared to Atlanta's coldest.  In fact that 24.9 beats several cities east of the Rockies and they aren't all in the South.

I didn't mean that comment to be an attack on our climate. Don't get me wrong, I'd take our climate for cold/snow (and a billion other reasons) over Atlanta by a mile. But for extreme cold, our futility stands out. Record lows are colder than Seattle for at least 90% of the country. 

Atlanta GA, Charlotte SC, Austin TX, Shreveport LA, Tallahassee FL and many other cities in the South have all been below zero.

[Deweydog]

20 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

That SSWE that's underway is that another Siberian warming event?

Yes.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

You don't have to go very far north of Atlanta to find much colder weather east of the Rockies. Even the latitude of Nashville or Oklahoma City regularly outperforms the PNW for cold temps. It shouldn't be hard to admit that....

I lived in Bartlesville, Oklahoma for several years between 2006-2010 (Lickily the one winter I was in the PNW in that span was 08-09.). It got below zero a couple of times in that period, and that was at like 37N with almost no elevation (800’). In February 2011 they hit -28, which broke the all time record of -25 from 1930. They had highs in the mid single digits during the December 1983 blast. Cold air masses and strong CAA penetrate so much further south once you get east of the Rockies.