Gradient Keeper Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Day 5 Yuck. EURO wants to end our Winter chances for the lowlands QUICKLY 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, Omegaraptor said: This is absolutely unbelievable model disagreement for 4 days out. When was the last time we’ve seen anything like this? 6-12 hours ago. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Matt’s going to be right...Again... 1 3 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 These are some major discrepancies for just ~100 hours out. Cancelling or locking in solutions right now over a single deterministic run isn't the right way to go here. 2 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, DJ Droppin said: Day 5 Yuck. EURO wants to end our Winter chances for the lowlands QUICKLY I don't even recognize that as being the same pattern that we have been analyzing for the last few days. And that is at day 5. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Need to see what the EPS says 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanNyberg Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, fubario said: so, every model and their mothers shows cold and possible snow, but the euro shows opposite and it's 100% correct. got it. i'm learning. I'll listen to one consistently reliable and accurate model over a dozen of unreliable models. 1 1 -------------------- Sean Nyberg IG: @SeanNyberg X: @SeanNyberg Facebook: Sean Nyberg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Looks like we have a winner! 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Chatting with IbrChris. He is VERY skeptical of the EURO, says it is warmer then every member of the GFS/CMC ensemble suite. 2 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Why does Europe hate us so much? All we did was take the San Juan Islands from them and try to start a war over a pig. I don't see the problem. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, fubario said: so, every model and their mothers shows cold and possible snow, but the euro shows opposite and it's 100% correct. got it. i'm learning. It has the best accuracy track record, so my money is on that being the case. But it’s not inconceivable that the Euro is all wet. It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Zero consistency with this model too. So it's hard to come to definitive conclusion on what will happen. Guess we just let mother nature take over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Hopefully the euro comes around with bringing down the cold air faster. I'll at least take the low going back south though. With that track, the gorge will pretty much make sure PDX gets some kind of event out of that. For being the superior model, the ECMWF is spiting out all kinds of different solutions run to run.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Accuracy? It's been flailing a little too much to call it that. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said: Based on? Odds. It's all alone on this solution. That's a huge change for the euro in that time frame. 3 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, Jesse said: I think if we are talking about consistency the GFS actually beats the Euro pretty handily the last 24 hours. Yep Euro has been all over the D**n place in the day 3-5 timeframe. That being said I'm sure none of us would be incredibly surprised to see the GFS fold like a cheap suit overnight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 FWIW Here's 10 PM Friday. Warm air isn't surging from the south on this run 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, snow_wizard said: Looks like we have a winner! ? lol Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: Take it easy. Drink plenty of fluids. Eat light and easy to digest foods. You'll recover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, SeanNyberg said: I'll listen to one consistently reliable and accurate model over a dozen of unreliable models. There are no consistently reliable and accurate models. 3 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Even though PDX is barely cold enough, this is not a good sign at all. It's possible the EPS pulls down more arctic air than this. It's also very possible the next Op run handles that cut-off very differently and we see the EURO much colder like the GFS, GEM. IF the EURO is handling the pattern correctly we would unfortunately see the 6z or 12z GFS quickly turn warmer. We shall find out... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, nwsnow said: Hopefully the euro comes around with bringing down the cold air faster. I'll at least take the low going back south though. With that track, the gorge will pretty much make sure PDX gets some kind of event out of that. For being the superior model, the ECMWF is spiting out all kinds of different solutions run to run.... I know you meant to type “spitting” but “spiting” is pretty apt. You know I’m liking the low track, just need the cold to cooperate. 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 The Euro went, in a span of 24 hours, from the greatest winter of some of our lifetimes to a total rug pull for anyone south of the Columbia River (with a big arctic rug pull for Washington as well). Incredible disagreement with its own modeling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 FWIW, if the Euro does cave to the GFS, pretty sure it wouldn’t be the first time in the last 10 days it did so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: IF the EURO is handling the pattern correctly we would unfortunately see the 6z or 12z GFS quickly turn warmer. We shall find out... Yeah... the ECMWF been on a northward journey for several runs now. Hard to imagine it reversing. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, Jesse said: It's been flailing a little too much to call it that. Maybe so. This run in particular is pretty suspect with basically no cyclogenesis occurring as the lobe splits to the west. Hard to imagine it going to sh*t THAT quickly but who knows... 4 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Chatting with IbrChris. He is VERY skeptical of the EURO, says it is warmer then every member of the GFS/CMC ensemble suite. This is what I told myself 2 weeks ago, when every GEFS/CMC ensemble member had a blizzard here and the Euro had a flat wave in the Carolinas. You can probably guess who won that battle. 1 2 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, Jesse said: It's been flailing a little too much to call it that. Yeah, it doesn't seem like it's starting any kind of trend so it's just flailing big time. I'm very skeptical of this solution so everyone should just relax and wait for the EPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 PDX right on the borderline between sleet, snow mix, and major snow storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said: I'll listen to one consistently reliable and accurate model over a dozen of unreliable models. The Euro is the best model...except for this run. It literally completely flipped the pattern from the previous run. Nothing is even close to resembling this output. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: IF the EURO is handling the pattern correctly we would unfortunately see the 6z or 12z GFS quickly turn warmer. We shall find out... Couple of things. What's the Euros Track record with the PV? Seems to be struggling with it. @Phil mentioned models wouldn't struggle with this type of stuff A couple of weeks ago, when we all said the Euro caved to the GFS, it lost the solution and then got it back. Could this be the case? I may be reaching here, but not ready to give up yet. Not when this is the outlier. Yes, it's the goat, but it has been wrong before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: Still doesn't end up looking half bad for Western WA by Saturday. Yup this run is still decent if you live in Washington. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Is it weird I consider this run a small victory? Shows the EURO is just as capable of waffling, the low track doesn’t indeed go all the way up to Vancouver, and we’re pretty D**n close to a good event PDX-north. 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: Still doesn't end up looking half bad for Western WA by Saturday. Speaks to the power of the arctic airmass we are on the edges of. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 Still manages two snow events from Portland northward and colder temps later on without so much Pacific influence. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 I think the big story from his run is the surface low didn't trend north and the breakout over the ocean was really muted compared to previous runs. Going the right way. Certainly like the snow it shows up this way! 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 7 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: FWIW Here's 10 PM Friday. Warm air isn't surging from the south on this run Yeah. One thing I think tends to get a little bit lost here is that sometimes just because there isn't pretty deep blue over us on the 500mb anomaly map doesn't tell you much about what the low levels are doing in situations like this. Especially with a beastly airmass relatively close by and the Pacific fairly blocked up. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Still doesn't end up looking half bad for Western WA by Saturday. Yeah and by Saturday 10 PM, the highest temps get is 35. Mainly uppers 20s and low 30s. Not as cold, but no surge of warm air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 8, 2021 Report Share Posted February 8, 2021 I don't even think there was a single GFS ensemble member as warm as the Euro is at day 5. 3 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Posted by Bryant,
11 reactions
Go to this post