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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Tha

Downvote this post if you want snow.

Good morning,  As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters.  Well despite my better judgement

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35 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Glad that if there’s any models that’s the outlier it’s the gfs. 

Why is that?  The 12Z GFS was way colder than the Euro early in the run.  As you can see 850's were -14 at Seattle where I don't think they got below -9 on the Euro. The Euro does show a bit more snow down there but I'd rather have the cold early and worry about the snow later.

850th.us_nw.png

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3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I heard Alabama is nice if you are basing a state off politics. Everything else about Alabama isn't tho

I wouldn't like the heat. I love sun and warm weather, but one thing I love about Washington is the variety. 

 

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2 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

I still feel like I'd have to bet against this, because it just looks too perfect. 

I feel you. But it is the GOAT after all so you never know! 

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Just now, Acer said:

Why is that?  The 12Z GFS was way colder than the Euro early in the run.  As you can see 850's were -14 at Seattle where I don't think they got below -9.  The Euro does show a bit more snow down there but I'd rather have the cold early and worry about the snow later.

850th.us_nw.png

Wow we agree!

There seems to be a persistent mythology here that getting an extremely cold airmass is a dime a dozen and moisture for snow is the hard part. In this region getting cold is the wide majority of the battle. Sneaking last minute moisture in is pretty common and how many of our best snowstorms have popped up just a few days in advance.

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4 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

There’s a pretty big difference between the libertarian, get-the-gov’t-off-my-back conservatism in the rural West and the religious conservatism in the South. But we should probably move this discussion to the politics thread and get back on track.

No doubt. I lived in Oklahoma for 4 years. Talk about idiot central. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, Jesse said:

Wow we agree!

There seems to be a persistent mythology here that getting an extremely cold airmass is a dime a dozen and moisture for snow is the hard part. In this region getting cold is the wide majority of the battle. Sneaking last minute moisture in is pretty common and how many of our best snowstorms have popped up just a few days in advance.

Well said young man.

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4 minutes ago, Kayla said:

No one asked for a photo but I'm out here snow blowing for the umpteenth time over the last few days so why not! It's quite gorgeous out.

898404561_ScreenShot2021-02-08at8_46_27PM.png.4a61f34f647201205b9887762661d33a.png

No, we want MORE photos!

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Wow we agree!

There seems to be a persistent mythology here that getting an extremely cold airmass is a dime a dozen and moisture for snow is the hard part. In this region getting cold is the wide majority of the battle. Sneaking last minute moisture in is pretty common and how many of our best snowstorms have popped up just a few days in advance.

Congrats Jesse. Post of the day material right here. 

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Nothing is better than an PNW summer except for when the smoke moves in. After allergy season, June and July are pure bliss

If not for the Labor Day windstorm last summer was for the most part smokeless. Also a good severe t'storm on August 5th but unfortunately was extremely hard to get a good video of it. My camera would have been soaked had I stepped out with it. 3/4"-1" hail falling for 15 minutes straight. Someone near OIT in north K-Falls recorded 1.5" rainfall in the short duration that storm happened.

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 15.10"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.00" (78%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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Back to just a plain rain shower here with the February sun also shining through.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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6 minutes ago, Kayla said:

No one asked for a photo but I'm out here snow blowing for the umpteenth time over the last few days so why not! It's quite gorgeous out.

898404561_ScreenShot2021-02-08at8_46_27PM.png.4a61f34f647201205b9887762661d33a.png

No doubt you got way more on the ground than I've seen at once! 

2 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

No, we want MORE photos!

Yes we do! 

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 15.10"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.00" (78%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Moving because of politics is pretty dumb unless you own a business or are a multi-millionaire. Then I can see legitimate tax/regulatory reasons to do so. 

 

It can get to where it effects your personal freedom.  I get it.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Congrats Jesse. Post of the day material right here. 

 

Thanks buddy. I had to provide some balance for your many contenders for worst post of the decade this morning. :wub:

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image.thumb.jpeg.f87b58e3f3bd4cae00d5357b8af40eea.jpeg
unfortunately this looks to be a repeat of December 2016 if not worse.  That ice storm was probably the worst since ? 1979 in Eugene if not longer.  
there is still PLENTY of time for model forecast to change.  I would add that just because models fall into consensus does not mean the forecast is certain.  If I recall correctly the models did fall into consensus for the late February 2019 snowstorm a few days prior, shifting north before trending south.

 

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9 minutes ago, Acer said:

Why is that?  The 12Z GFS was way colder than the Euro early in the run.  As you can see 850's were -14 at Seattle where I don't think they got below -9 on the Euro. The Euro does show a bit more snow down there but I'd rather have the cold early and worry about the snow later.

850th.us_nw.png

The good thing about our current situation is every scenario being put forth are good ones. IMO the euro looked better...but I’d gladly take the gfs too. Mainly my preferences speaking. This situation is a balance between being too suppressed or too far north...most of the models at this point have a good balance for there to be a decent amount of cold and snow PDX northwards...with the euro leading the way...which is the scenario I’d prefer. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-14

Monthly rainfall-5.05”

Cold season rainfall-31.87”

Snowfall-15.5”

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39 here at noon. Feels like winter! Only going to get colder...lot colder by Wednesday night. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-14

Monthly rainfall-5.05”

Cold season rainfall-31.87”

Snowfall-15.5”

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11 minutes ago, Kayla said:

No one asked for a photo but I'm out here snow blowing for the umpteenth time over the last few days so why not! It's quite gorgeous out.

898404561_ScreenShot2021-02-08at8_46_27PM.png.4a61f34f647201205b9887762661d33a.png

Its nice to have a lot of snow, but even better in a gorgeous environment like yours.  The house looks amazing too, the kind of house a person would love to sit in and watch it snow outside.  Be careful with these pics, or Hallmark will knock on your door asking to film a movie there!

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2 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

image.thumb.jpeg.f87b58e3f3bd4cae00d5357b8af40eea.jpeg
unfortunately this looks to be a repeat of December 2016 if not worse.  That ice storm was probably the worst since ? 1979 in Eugene if not longer.  
there is still PLENTY of time for model forecast to change.  I would add that just because models fall into consensus does not mean the forecast is certain.  If I recall correctly the models did fall into consensus for the late February 2019 snowstorm a few days prior, shifting north before trending south.

 

I got a lot of free wood out of that 2016 event. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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9 minutes ago, fubario said:

with the N vs S tug-o-war happening w/ the models..i'm thinking oly may be in a good spot, no?

Probably one of the better bets.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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15 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Wow we agree!

There seems to be a persistent mythology here that getting an extremely cold airmass is a dime a dozen and moisture for snow is the hard part. In this region getting cold is the wide majority of the battle. Sneaking last minute moisture in is pretty common and how many of our best snowstorms have popped up just a few days in advance.

The Pepto Peeps aren’t going to like this.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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4 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

image.thumb.jpeg.f87b58e3f3bd4cae00d5357b8af40eea.jpeg
unfortunately this looks to be a repeat of December 2016 if not worse.  That ice storm was probably the worst since ? 1979 in Eugene if not longer.  
there is still PLENTY of time for model forecast to change.  I would add that just because models fall into consensus does not mean the forecast is certain.  If I recall correctly the models did fall into consensus for the late February 2019 snowstorm a few days prior, shifting north before trending south.

 

Did you lose power in 2016? By some miracle, I didn't despite having overhead powerlines and plenty of downed trees in the neighborhood. We had about an inch of ice. I know that plenty of folks within the city limit were out of power for over a week. I really can't stand ZR at all. I also don't see a scenario that Eugene gets snow out of this unless things trend differently. I'm sure TWL doesn't either and that's why has hasn't been posting much lately. 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I got a lot of free wood out of that 2016 event. 

Do you have Madrone down there? I make sure to always have some of that fire wood. Stuff burns Hot!!

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Its nice to have a lot of snow, but even better in a gorgeous environment like yours.  The house looks amazing too, the kind of house a person would love to sit in and watch it snow outside.  Be careful with these pics, or Hallmark will knock on your door asking to film a movie there!

Haha thank you I appreciate that. We played the market well in Portland, saved and were extremely fortunate to build our dream home on a bit of land before the market went crazy out here. It truly is a great home to cozy up in and watch the snowfall all day!

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Cold Season 2020/21:

Total snowfall: 86.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 12.0"

Highest snow depth: 18.0"

Coldest high: -7.0º

Coldest low: -17.1º

Number of subzero days: 7

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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16 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Wow we agree!

There seems to be a persistent mythology here that getting an extremely cold airmass is a dime a dozen and moisture for snow is the hard part. In this region getting cold is the wide majority of the battle. Sneaking last minute moisture in is pretty common and how many of our best snowstorms have popped up just a few days in advance.

Getting cold is a blindfolded handstand on a tight rope at 100 feet without a net.

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Mark's ECMWF text output. Quite a lot of precip. Looks like we go through a near half inch of rain before the cavalry arrives via the gorge. Euro and really most models insist that the surface temps in PDX will be plenty cold and that is still the case with the 12z but those 850s are pretty much what makes this so marginal for us. Right around 0c.

image.thumb.png.d05e7f0282a12d6d29792d17013f8f6f.png

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One East Coast thing I miss was freezing rain after snow. Pretty damn magical with a moonlit sky and snow glazed over everything.

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13 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

18z NAM is running

Have you decided where you are packing up your bunk bed and legos and moving to yet?

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2 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

Mark's ECMWF text output. Quite a lot of precip. Looks like we go through a near half inch of rain before the cavalry arrives via the gorge. Euro and really most models insist that the surface temps in PDX will be plenty cold and that is still the case with the 12z but those 850s are pretty much what makes this so marginal for us. Right around 0c.

image.thumb.png.d05e7f0282a12d6d29792d17013f8f6f.png

The current phase of this lead up has a very January 1998 look to it.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 minutes ago, iFred said:

One East Coast thing I miss was freezing rain after snow. Pretty D**n magical with a moonlit sky and snow glazed over everything.

I've always thought it was pretty but it's definitely hell to get around in. 

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5 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

Mark's ECMWF text output. Quite a lot of precip. Looks like we go through a near half inch of rain before the cavalry arrives via the gorge. Euro and really most models insist that the surface temps in PDX will be plenty cold and that is still the case with the 12z but those 850s are pretty much what makes this so marginal for us. Right around 0c.

image.thumb.png.d05e7f0282a12d6d29792d17013f8f6f.png

Looks like the hills around town could be getting hammered for a couple hours as the cold slowly works its way down.

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3 minutes ago, iFred said:

One East Coast thing I miss was freezing rain after snow. Pretty D**n magical with a moonlit sky and snow glazed over everything.

That stuff is the worst. Different strokes for different folks, I suppose.

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