November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Kolk1604]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

And we’re jinxed 

I'm not in the advisory area, but I noticed Algona is. Must be where the line stops 

[Nov1985]

These warming heavy precip events have gone both ways so many times. GFS simply refuses to move the mission critical NW to SE cold line to the NE like the other models do. Here's ECMWF --> GFS --> NAM comparison for 4am Wednesday. Which model to trust more? 

[Deweydog]

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Portland OR
108 PM PST Mon Nov 28 2022

PZZ210-291400-
/O.CON.KPQR.SC.Y.0172.000000T0000Z-221129T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KPQR.GL.W.0024.221130T0200Z-221130T1200Z/
Columbia River Bar-
108 PM PST Mon Nov 28 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM PST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, seas 8 to 12 ft at 8 to 11 seconds
  and south winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt expected. For
  the Small Craft Advisory, rough bar conditions expected with
  seas around 10 ft at 11 seconds. Seas will climb close to 11 ft
  during the strong ebb current of 5.67 kt at 755 PM Monday.

* WHERE...In the Main Channel of the Columbia River Bar.

* WHEN...Gale Warning, from 6 PM Tuesday to 4 AM PST Wednesday.
  Small Craft Advisory, until 10 PM PST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

 

[Snownerd3000]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

BAM! 

 

I live right on the king/snohomish line.  I'm part of the advisory but so close to the WSW that I'm identifying as part of the WSW lol

[Cold Snap]

4-8 inches in the WSW for my location. I feel like that may be a little high. I was thinking I get more in the 2-4 inch range.

[blizzardwatch24]

4 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Seattle WA
303 PM PST Mon Nov 28 2022

WAZ503-506-507-555-290715-
/O.NEW.KSEW.WS.A.0006.221129T2100Z-221201T0000Z/
Western Whatcom County-Western Skagit County-Everett and Vicinity-
East Puget Sound Lowlands-
including Bellingham, Blaine, Point Roberts, Ferndale, Lynden,
Sumas, Sudden Valley, Burlington, Mount Vernon, Sedro-Woolley,
La Conner, Conway, Everett, Lynnwood, Marysville, Stanwood,
Bonney Lake, Maple Valley, Monroe, Woodinville, Arlington,
Granite Falls, Lake Stevens, Snohomish, Gold Bar, Duvall,
Carnation, Fall City, Snoqualmie, North Bend, Covington,
Black Diamond, Orting, and Eatonville
303 PM PST Mon Nov 28 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations 4 to 8
  inches possible.

* WHERE...Lowlands of western Whatcom County, including Point
  Roberts, Lummi Island, Bellingham, and Sumas, Lowlands of
  western Skagit County, including Cypress Island, Guemes
  Island, Anacortes, Mount Vernon, and La Conner, Everett and
  vicinity, including Stanwood, Marysville, and Mountlake
  Terrace and East Puget Sound Lowlands from Snohomish County to
  Pierce County, including Arlington, Gold Bar, Duvall,
  Snoqualmie, Buckley, and Eatonville.

* WHEN...From Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Higher snow accumulations expected in the
  higher hills of the area.

they need to fix their maps. they show my house with advisory in Mill creek, yet my neighbor 3 minutes away same elevation with winter storm watch...lol

[RentonHill]

Interesting. NWS Spokane uses "warm tongue" instead of warm nose. Whats more appropriate? 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said:

I live right on the king/snohomish line.  I'm part of the advisory but so close to the WSW that I'm identifying as part of the WSW lol

I do the same thing when warnings are posted only for the NW interior which does not include Snohomish Co, but I am a half mile away from Skagit Co so I just lump myself in with the cool kids lol! 

[MossMan]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

Interesting. NWS Spokane uses "warm tongue" instead of warm nose. Whats more appropriate? 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

If the GFS happens, I will start going back to church

 

You should probably start that before the GFS happens.

[North_County]

15 minutes ago, Cloud said:

GFS is kuld... 

MBY colder than Yakima and Spokane in December? Interesting. 

[Perturbed Member]

The Friday-Saturday period still has some potential for areas south.

18z GFS shows pretty much a best case track for PDX. Steady precip and offshore flow.

 

The Euro is not as friendly but it does have a similar idea

 

 

It just isn't quite cold enough, a mix or cold rain. Given the GFS's cold bias, the ECMWF is much more likely accurate here. Still worth watching this scenario however.

[smerfylicious]

55 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Wet snow/rain mix here with a moderate shower moving over. Color me surprised.

Down to 38 after a high of 43.

Would say first flakes of the season but we already had some late night flakeage with the early November trough.

Yeah but that was the summer snow

 

[Guest administrator]

28 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Oh he definitely reads... he took a shot as "amateur weather observers" on these forums last year. 

A few years ago I got an email sent from the UW network letting me know that the forum contributed to the wider toxic culture in the weather enthusiast community.

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, administrator said:

A few years ago I got an email sent from the UW network letting me know that the forum contributed to the wider toxic culture in the weather enthusiast community.

 

[The Winter Warlock]

3 minutes ago, administrator said:

A few years ago I got an email sent from the UW network letting me know that the forum contributed to the wider toxic culture in the weather enthusiast community.

**** THE COMMUNITY - GFS ALL THE WAY

[MossMan]

I love Lake Cavanaugh! If it wasn’t about 40 minutes from I-5 I would have loved to have bought a place out there when we were looking for a new spot 5yrs ago. Took a drive out there two years ago when it was raining and upper 30’s at home, my then 2yr old was refusing to take a nap so we took a drive! Was snowing there and 32 degrees. It was heaven. 

[Nov1985]

Personally I prefer snow depth maps to set expectations. But they get confusing when we have multiple systems in a week. Also, things like ECMWF's phantom 6" inches of snow in Mt Vernon today mess them up too. 

Here's snow depth forecast Tue 1pm to Wed 1pm, GFS, EC, NAM. 

[RentonHill]

You all are my best friends. And thats something that Cliff Mass can never compete with. 

[MWG]

Hopefully we get some snow down here. 

[Winterdog]

10 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I do the same thing when warnings are posted only for the NW interior which does not include Snohomish Co, but I am a half mile away from Skagit Co so I just lump myself in with the cool kids lol! 

That's cheating.  We may have to make you forfeit your snow totals.

[SnarkyGoblin]

19 minutes ago, MossMan said:

BAM! 

 

They are currently calling the line between "storm" and "advisory" Mountlake Terrace.

[GHweatherChris]

LOL ya ok....

 

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Seattle WA
303 PM PST Mon Nov 28 2022

WAZ512-290715-
/O.NEW.KSEW.WS.A.0006.221129T2100Z-221201T0000Z/
Lower Chehalis Valley Area-
including Montesano, Elma, and McCleary
303 PM PST Mon Nov 28 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of up to
  5 inches possible.

* WHERE...Far southwest Mason County and the interior lowlands of
  Grays Harbor County, including Matlock.

* WHEN...From Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on very difficult travel.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Highest snow accumulations expected for the
  northern portions of Grays Harbor County on the south side of
  the Olympics.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

[SnowWillarrive]

They put Covington under WSW just to make Snowwizard happy. 

[gusky]

If that ice pellet report in N Sea is true then I should be getting some frozen precip any minute. Shows more (very light) precip headed this way soon as well.

[Everleigh]

35.6° and there is a light mix falling, with the occasional fat flake!!! 

[DeepFriedEgg]

Hotbox PDX at 46F 

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

They put Covington under WSW just to make Snowwizard happy. 

wait - JIM hasnt logged on in 21 hours jesus christ - welfare check?

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

wait - JIM hasnt logged on in 21 hours jesus christ - welfare check?

Jim might go nuclear if he see’s the latest gfs run 

[The Winter Warlock]

4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

wait - JIM hasnt logged on in 21 hours jesus christ - welfare check?

I’m in Covington. Gimme an address.

[Doinko]

Getting some ice pellets now

[Weiner Warrior]

When's the next GFS come out. I need more.....

[The Winter Warlock]

Just now, Archon said:

I’m in Covington. Gimme an address.

Never mind - found him.

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, Archon said:

I’m in Covington. Gimme an address.

Just look for frozen buckets of water... 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Archon said:

Never mind - found him.

wow

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z was a nice run…

[The Winter Warlock]

8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

wow

Err… new photo.

EDIT: I am stealing this and changing my name. So it be done.

Edited November 28, 2022 by The Winter Warlock

[The Blob]

10 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Hotbox PDX at 46F 

How? It's 40 IMBY

[Snownerd3000]

 

[Everleigh]

Temp at 34.2*F, DP at 31.8*F and we have flakes!