September 2023 Weather in the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Excited about the hints of fall on the models. A few systems in late September certainly does not mean we are just wet until next May either, September 2013 was extremely wet and very stormy late in the month, but as followed by a very dry October, and really it was pretty dry all the way up until February 2014. 

We have the start of a pretty solid green up right now, even down in the valley you can see the impact a little rain made, another inch or two of rain by the end of the month would be a cherry on top. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Wow. First time up there since the fire? Get snaps plz.

Yes, my wife is pretty upset she isn't going, but because they can only let a very limited number of people go up there, they had a volunteer lottery.

[RentonHill]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like a small step toward the operational on the 12z EPS. Definitely liking that cluster of wetter ensemble members around the 18th-20th.

Heres 00z/12z for Renton. Definitely more precip chances after the 15th

[BLI snowman]

Just got back from a week romping through the desert in far west Texas and New Mexico. Looks like I didn't miss too much up here aside from the storms in the SW Portland metro last weekend.

Checked out three more national parks (Guadalupe, Carlsbad Caverns, and White Sands) and even caught a weak ~35mph dust devil yesterday just north of Albuquerque. ABQ set a daily record yesterday with 97, and temps were over 100 for a couple of my days further south, very hot for this late in the season even down there.

 

[TT-SEA]

28 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Just got back from a week romping through the desert in far west Texas and New Mexico. Looks like I didn't miss too much up here aside from the storms in the SW Portland metro last weekend.

Checked out three more national parks (Guadalupe, Carlsbad Caverns, and White Sands) and even caught a weak ~35mph dust devil yesterday just north of Albuquerque. ABQ set a daily record yesterday with 97, and temps were over 100 for a couple of my days further south, very hot for this late in the season even down there.

 

Did you retire like our friend Jim from Federal Way?  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

54 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Thank you kind Andrew. I feel very fortunate that this special place hasn’t been lost to fire yet.

Fire created it.

Without fire, it would be dense forest, maybe some berry bushes in the understory, but too shady for good berry crops.

It needs to burn again. Knock the trees back, keep it open. Sooner it burns, the less fuel there will be, better chance of a low-intensity fire. Berry bushes vigorously resprout from their roots after those.

[Deweydog]

I went to Oregon City this morning but didn’t take any snaps.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Deweydog said:

I went to Oregon City this morning but didn’t take any snaps.

Thank you for the update Matthew... I am sure it was a blessed trip.  

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Fire created it.

Without fire, it would be dense forest, maybe some berry bushes in the understory, but too shady for good berry crops.

It needs to burn again. Knock the trees back, keep it open. Sooner it burns, the less fuel there will be, better chance of a low-intensity fire. Berry bushes vigorously resprout from their roots after those.

Hmmmm.   Interesting.   

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Quote

The Sawtooth Berry Field in the northern part of Indian Heaven Wilderness is world renowned for its wealth of huckleberries. The area was burned in the late 1890's and again in the Great Fires of 1902. The fields were subsequently maintained by later fires, which may be attributed to Native Americans whose berry-drying fires would escape.

https://www.fs.usda.gov/recarea/giffordpinchot/recarea/?recid=31710

[BLI snowman]

34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Did you retire like our friend Jim from Federal Way?  

Working remotely has its benefits....

[the_convergence_zone]

My mental rule is that the median date of the first real rain in Seattle is my birthday, 9/19. Going to be right on schedule this year. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Little photo dump of the new kid. He is currently in 9-12 month clothing even tho he is only 5 months lol

[TT-SEA]

75 at SEA today... 76 out here.   September perfection!

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Fire created it.

Without fire, it would be dense forest, maybe some berry bushes in the understory, but too shady for good berry crops.

It needs to burn again. Knock the trees back, keep it open. Sooner it burns, the less fuel there will be, better chance of a low-intensity fire. Berry bushes vigorously resprout from their roots after those.

This is nonsense. Fire destroys everything. It’s evil. Period!

[TacomaWx]

I think fall will really show up in the last week of September. Some signs of fall are definitely starting to show with a few days below 70 in the last couple weeks. Hit 49 this morning for the first time since late June. Definitely noticing the shorter days too. 

[TacomaWx]

72/49 today. Thankfully we had some rain recently or else the dry weather we’ve been getting probably would’ve led been accompanied by consistent lingering smoke like the fall of 2022. 

[Cold Snap]

12 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I think fall will really show up in the last week of September. Some signs of fall are definitely starting to show with a few days below 70 in the last couple weeks. Hit 49 this morning for the first time since late June. Definitely noticing the shorter days too. 

I’ve also been noticing the lower sun angles as well. 

[MossMan]

My grass is growing at a May rate right now! 

[T-Town]

45 minutes ago, MossMan said:

My grass is growing at a May rate right now! 

Counterpoint. Not much rain here in T Town. 

[T-Town]

Pretty great sunset though. 

[Front Ranger]

5 hours ago, the_convergence_zone said:

My mental rule is that the median date of the first real rain in Seattle is my birthday, 9/19. Going to be right on schedule this year. 

What counts as "real rain"? Just curious.

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, T-Town said:

Counterpoint. Not much rain here in T Town. 

I think it depends on the type of grass you have, and obviously if you water it. I have a buddy in Tacoma who recently posted some pics with his family, etc in their backard, and it was not nearly that dead looking.

[Cloud]

4 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

I think fall will really show up in the last week of September. Some signs of fall are definitely starting to show with a few days below 70 in the last couple weeks. Hit 49 this morning for the first time since late June. Definitely noticing the shorter days too. 

Generally speaking, the transition to fall is typical more rapid than say winter to spring. Our current overnight lows will be Oct highs in 4-5 weeks. Equinox summer to fall tends to fall off a cliff and once that flood gate is open it remains open for a while. 

[Cloud]

6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

What counts as "real rain"? Just curious.

Any systems barreling into the PNW capable of producing widespread precipitation. Numbers aside.

[MossMan]

50 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Generally speaking, the transition to fall is typical more rapid than say winter to spring. Our current overnight lows will be Oct highs in 4-5 weeks. Equinox summer to fall tends to fall off a cliff and once that flood gate is open it remains open for a while. 

Unless we are talking October 2022 which felt more like summer than fall. I remember roasting at the pumpkin patch, jetsking, hanging on the deck…It was such a crazy month! That forecast below was from 10/2/22. 

Edited September 9, 2023 by MossMan

[iFred]

On 9/7/2023 at 5:23 PM, Phishy Wx said:

freaking hell the east coast was disgustingly hot this week.  was near Philly.  good grief.  I about sweat out from the humidity

Oh nice, where about? 

[iFred]

Drove back from Boise to Everett today. A pleasant drive made for great fun when I took Deadman at 70mph and also managed to see Mt Adams from Pendleton. Made it across 410, saw the ice crystals being blown off of a very close Rainer from Tipsoo and even got a chance to visit my old stomping grounds in Buckley and Bonney Lake. The weather was perfect.

[Phil]

I moved my camera at the worst possible time. It was a triple forked positive CTG at a 45° angle.

Usually I’m asleep right now but guess my sixth sense woke me up beforehand, lol.

 

 

 

[Cloud]

3 hours ago, MossMan said:

Unless we are talking October 2022 which felt more like summer than fall. I remember roasting at the pumpkin patch, jetsking, hanging on the deck…It was such a crazy month! That forecast below was from 10/2/22. 

Last October was very much an outlier. 

[Cloud]

Latest GFS ensembles appears to suggest we are not quite done with summer-like weather yet for next weekend closer to the fall equinox.

European agrees. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 hours ago, Phil said:

I moved my camera at the worst possible time. It was a triple forked positive CTG at a 45° angle.

Usually I’m asleep right now but guess my sixth sense woke me up beforehand, lol.

 

 

Strange. I do not need a sixth sense to be awakened by a nocturnal thunderstorm. Two of my normal five suffice.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Loving the switch to fall-ish morning temps. Been around 50 the past several days with a nice heavy dew covering everything.  The afternoons stay just warm enough to enjoy the heat of the sun. 

Currently 49 which also is the low for the morning.  I was about to head out and try to get some sunrise photos but it looks like its pretty foggy up in the county, so I'll stay put and enjoy a cup of tea.

Headed to SoCal on Monday for a quick trip to meet the team I work with, looks like it will be in the low-mid 80's while I am there with lows around 70.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Beautiful morning. This can be such a lovely time of year when it’s not a smoke show.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Devastating quake has struck Morocco.  

[Deweydog]

14 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Little photo dump of the new kid. He is currently in 9-12 month clothing even tho he is only 5 months lol

Baby got in the way of the pooch photo. -3 points.

[TacomaWx]

10 hours ago, Cloud said:

Generally speaking, the transition to fall is typical more rapid than say winter to spring. Our current overnight lows will be Oct highs in 4-5 weeks. Equinox summer to fall tends to fall off a cliff and once that flood gate is open it remains open for a while. 

The transition from spring to summer can take 4-5 months but the transition to fall can be done in about a week. All of our seasons seem to be very gradual slow changes but fall usually hits fast. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

10 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

I think it depends on the type of grass you have, and obviously if you water it. I have a buddy in Tacoma who recently posted some pics with his family, etc in their backard, and it was not nearly that dead looking.

Mine is also this dead on the peninsula. But with only 7” of rain this year not too surprising. Hope to get a green up before winter.

[T-Town]

30 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Mine is also this dead on the peninsula. But with only 7” of rain this year not too surprising. Hope to get a green up before winter.

I water my front yard and even the meager rain we got greened it up quite a bit. But it will take a lot more rain to make a difference in the backyard. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I thought about watering this weekend to keep the momentum up. Maybe tomorrow.