January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Perturbed Member]

23 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Bruh how is woodland wa still under a wwa. Does the nws even look at the models?

The Weather.com output for Woodland. This is actually possible given the ratios at those temps. NWS 1-3 inch forecast there will bust terribly.

[Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone]

The smallest of snow flakes have been falling oh so lightly. This is a win!  

[the_convergence_zone]

Seems like Seattle might get in on the freezing rain party on Tuesday…

[High Desert Mat?]

Also want to say, when this all unfolded in the models two weeks ago, we kind of laughed it off like it was never going to happen. But it did. And the gfs led the way 80% of the time. It skewed off here and there but in the end it was the closest to reality. If that high in the eastern pacific would’ve held on a little stronger and a little longer, man, this would’ve been an all time air mass that rivaled any in the last 100 years. Yet it was t seen anywhere close to us two weeks ago. Crazy what SSW’s can do. From what I hear, another one is suppose to happen on the 24th. 

[Rustysprocket]

It’s been calm all day in SW Beaverton as expected, although the wind just picked up a bit. Sitting at 22° now, that windchill is no joke. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I detest warm noses!

Get a dog.

[Cold Snap]

5 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

The Weather.com output for Woodland. This is actually possible given the ratios at those temps. NWS 1-3 inch forecast there will bust terribly.

I feel like Weather.com is usually pretty good with their snow totals. At least IMBY.

[Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone]

Nothing to see on power going down get. But Tracking those outages into the weekend let’s see how crazy it gets. 

[Slushy Inch]

19 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

Lock it in! GFS snow maps 5 days out verify every time. Right, guys? Right?

That was Gem

[the_convergence_zone]

3 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Also want to say, when this all unfolded in the models two weeks ago, we kind of laughed it off like it was never going to happen. But it did. And the gfs led the way 80% of the time. It skewed off here and there but in the end it was the closest to reality. If that high in the eastern pacific would’ve held on a little stronger and a little longer, man, this would’ve been an all time air mass that rivaled any in the last 100 years. Yet it was t seen anywhere close to us two weeks ago. Crazy what SSW’s can do. From what I hear, another one is suppose to happen on the 24th. 

I’m still waiting for the 18 inches of snow that the GFS promised me this weekend…maybe it meant 0.18 inches? 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EUG down to 39F still 41F in Springfield.

[Slushy Inch]

Great timing for Portlands radar to be down 

[Ken in Wood Village]

1 minute ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Also want to say, when this all unfolded in the models two weeks ago, we kind of laughed it off like it was never going to happen. But it did. And the gfs led the way 80% of the time. It skewed off here and there but in the end it was the closest to reality. If that high in the eastern pacific would’ve held on a little stronger and a little longer, man, this would’ve been an all time air mass that rivaled any in the last 100 years. Yet it was t seen anywhere close to us two weeks ago. Crazy what SSW’s can do. From what I hear, another one is suppose to happen on the 24th. 

This air mass reminds me of 1988 or 1989. I worked at Fred Meyer's and remembered hearing Alaska having temperatures -50° degrees and it was heading to the PNW. I went on my lunch and drove home (I didn't live that far away) and passed a temperature sign. It said it was 35 degrees and when I drove passed it again to get to work, it was down to 27. By the time I got off work, it was 15 degrees with a very strong East wind. This Arctic Air is similar to what happened then.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I’m still waiting for the 18 inches of snow that the GFS promised me this weekend…maybe it meant 0.18 inches? 

Wasn’t it talking about widespread subzero lows at one point, too?

[SpaceRace22]

The 00z RRFS really amping up the totals for almost the whole PDX metro now. This is double what the 18z had in most spots, and 3x what its 12z run had.

[Perturbed Member]

1 minute ago, Cold Snap said:

I feel like Weather.com is usually pretty good with their snow totals. At least IMBY.

Yeah it is pretty decent for an automated solution. IBM/Weather Company run some proprietary model to generate their forecasts. IBM also owns the GRAF model but I don't think that is what is getting used on weather.com. 

 

[Cloud]

48 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Sorry to hear about the passing of your godfather.  One of my brothers passed away in September in South Georgia, so I had the opposite problem....wearing a black suit and tie in 95-98 temps was absolutely brutal.

 

On the topic of the cold being more bearable, I always like to say "you can add layers to keep warm in the cold, but when it's hot, there is only so much nakedness you can achieve before the neighbors call the cops on you"

Condolences to your family.

It’s been quite a roller coaster for our past 3 years or so. As some of you know, I shared my mom’s passing couple years ago and then last year (2023) alone we had more passings. 2 of my uncles from Portland who are relatively young and healthy just suddenly passed, then my cousin from California. Then recently my godfather. All in a span of less than 6 months.

[icyasf]

For whatever reason I have been stagnant at 34 degrees with cold rain for such a long time now.

[Ken in Wood Village]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Great timing for Portlands radar to be down 

This sucks Every single time a major weather event is about to happen, the radar goes down  

Here is the Langley radar, it's picking up the moisture coming in. 

[Phil]

52 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

@Phil

If I recall correctly, a while back you said that February is a write off for PNW cold. However, do you still think so or has your opinion changed since we are now expecting another SSW event?

Odds against a cold Feb, however this week is a good example of how fluky timing in pattern forcings can lead to fluky regional weather patterns. Not impossible that could happen in Feb as well.

[Cascadia_Wx]

I find it a little intriguing how many GEFS ensemble members want us to go arctic again around the 19th. Could just be noise, but worth watching.

[Phishy Wx]

finally dropped to -7, DP -18

[The Blob]

Went to bed with 33° and woke up to 20°. Work weather station reporting 21°.

[Ken in Wood Village]

Temperature is barely below 20° degrees

[Doinko]

Euro is a slight improvement over the 12z, about 6" here

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Latest HRRR says let the fun begin 12 hours from now! 

[LowerGarfield]

-12F this is cool but I would probably sleep better if it would warm just a bit more so my pipes don't freeze.

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I find it a little intriguing how many GEFS ensemble members want us to go arctic again around the 19th. Could just be noise, but worth watching.

Chance is there. Just need undercutting not to mess things up

[Deweydog]

#PDX23

[Anti Marine Layer]

North Bend Rain Enthusiast is not enthusiastic about me posting stuff here.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

North Bend Rain Enthusiast is not enthusiastic about me posting stuff here.

Who is?

[RayRay]

Is it cold enough to do the boiling water toss freezing trick?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

14 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

The 00z RRFS really amping up the totals for almost the whole PDX metro now. This is double what the 18z had in most spots, and 3x what its 12z run had.

Around 5". The outliers are coming into agreement with the model consensus.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Who is?

I am

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, RayRay said:

Is it cold enough to do the boiling water toss freezing trick?

If you are in Bozeman or Calgary, yes!

Redmond, WA? Not remotely cold enough.

[Perturbed Member]

The euro actually shows light snow starting in PDX metro a bit after 1 AM. 

 

 

[Kayla]

2 minutes ago, RayRay said:

Is it cold enough to do the boiling water toss freezing trick?

Need at least -20F or so.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

-6 in Spokane now  

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

The euro actually shows light snow starting in PDX metro a bit after 1 AM. 

 

 

How much of the moisture looks to be sleet by this run?

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, RayRay said:

Is it cold enough to do the boiling water toss freezing trick?

Kayla yes! Rest of us probably not quite yet.