I hereby allocate the next 2 hours to an open discussion about whether or not Tim only posts good or bad maps and whether he's a consummate truth teller or whether it is low key trolling. This forum to resume at 7:30 for the 00z GFS.
*hits gavel*
PDX had a warm spell peaking at 78 on April 2. Exactly 3 weeks later during a warm period it hit 78 again on April 23. We seem to sort of be in a 3 week cycle right now with ridging. So another 3 weeks would be centered on May 14. That would go in line with what you’re thinking with the MJO.
Ok, I get what you’re saying, there hasn’t been much blocking this spring and we’ve had weak systems interspersed with nice weather and temperatures in the normal-ish range overall. That’s fair.
I do think the rainfall deficit is a big deal — maybe Oregon gets close to normal after this big storm but Sea-Tac is about 5 inches short this spring and they are going to get maybe 1 inch in the next week unless the forecast changes.
Today has been absolutely lovely, btw. Soaking rain last night then brilliant sunshine with clouds at times today so far and a lush and blooming landscape. Temps moderate, in the upper 50s to around 60 at the moment. Gorgeous weather but we’re in a long wave troughy pattern so it doesn’t count.
Yeah, the wet April gave us an early boost but by the end of May that was pretty much ancient history.
Generally gonna need 2-3"+ of monthly precip and reasonable enough temps to maintain the soil moisture that's needed to really keep the green party going. At least that's what I've noticed in the years that have held steady well into June/the start of summer.
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