TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 For the record... I am strongly rooting for the suppressed runs. I certainly don't want a repeat of 2019. And everyone wins when it stays south. I just have a bad feeling after the 12Z ECMWF. 2 3 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, TacomaWaWx said: I’d just be happy with 1” of snow and a couple sub freezing days. That is setting sights pretty low. If we get decent snow cover and the cold hangs in like it appears it might we could come up with some really nice mins. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 19 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: A really good blend. Very often the ECMWF and GFS meet in the middle. One of the main reason why I was in favor of the 18z was because it doesn't want to go the north route. So this puts the Sound in the "safe zone" so to speak, while PDX gets dump on, it's still teetering with the edge it seems so a shift north have major implications for them. Also if there is more suppression leaving us dry, we would still have to contend with a major cold airmass, which I'm ok with. So yeah, I do think the 18z did give us a good blend solution. Still anyone's guesses how this'll work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Nice to see how the 18z GFS just keeps us cold the entire run to the very end. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulb/eugene Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 18z impressive for willamette valley. Eugene would get nearly 10 inches of snow with 1 inch of ice, and only better as you go north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: For the record... I am strongly rooting for the suppressed runs. I certainly don't want a repeat of 2019. And everyone wins when it stays south. I just have a bad feeling after the 12Z ECMWF. Indeed. I would love for the Euro just make even a tiny move south to stop the bad momentum on that model. The GFS has been pretty good this season and the Euro has had some big blunders so we'll see. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Khoine Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Cliff’s onboard I’m on board. Puget Sound snow master. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 I’d be happy with just an inch of snow and some cold easterlies. 2 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Mix of ice on windshield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 I really wouldn’t complain if this verified. 2 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Super Bowl about to begin... hopefully there is no hail to cover the satellite! And wow... that stadium in Tampa is packed. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Real time weather still quite breezy down here in the south sound. Gusting from the south 24 mph. 44* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Indeed. I would love for the Euro just make even a tiny move south to stop the bad momentum on that model. The GFS has been pretty good this season and the Euro has had some big blunders so we'll see. Jim, what is the minimum high record for the month of February at SeaTac? We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Jim, what is the minimum high record for the month of February at SeaTac? I think they recorded some highs in the teens in 1989. It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: For the record... I am strongly rooting for the suppressed runs. I certainly don't want a repeat of 2019. And everyone wins when it stays south. I just have a bad feeling after the 12Z ECMWF. 18z NAM also looked really ugly for us and was probably the worst model run today. Never a good sign on a model that has a known Antarctica bias in its "long range". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 GFS extracted data... Theses are highs beginning on Wednesday for SEA ... 35, 31, 27, 27, 33, 33 That would be historic for sure this late in the winter. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 28 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 18z GEFS Surface temps coldest yet For PDX-GORGE signaling a major low level arctic blast. These are VERY impressive for an ensemble mean! Surface temps, lowest high/low temps Seattle - 25.1 / 17.7 Portland - 21.2 / 16.5 Bellingham - 17.7 / 6.2 The Dalles - 12.7 / 7.5 What about SLE and EUG? Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Jim, what is the minimum high record for the month of February at SeaTac? I think it's 18 from 1989. For the old city records it's 20 from 1923 and that was mid month. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said: Wasn’t aware I had to define “hailing on and off” more precisely. Obviously when I’m posting temps it’s from my weather station in my backyard, not in town. I’m confused by the nitpicks? Just trying to contribute something.. I just used your post as a segue to report local conditions in the area... sorry about that. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 WRF shows pretty significant snowfall over I-90 with the PSCZ and extends into the EPSL just to the south of North Bend. Also at Sno/King line. Understandable why the NWS puts out a WWA even though the Euro isn't showing much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 The NWS is going for a low of 22 on the coldest night for SEA. It seems they are on board. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulb/eugene Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: I think they recorded some highs in the teens in 1989. 18 degrees/1989 20 degrees at old downtown site 2/13/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Cloud said: WRF shows pretty significant snowfall over I-90 with the PSCZ and extends into the EPSL just to the south of North Bend. Also at Sno/King line. Understandable why the NWS puts out a WWA even though the Euro isn't showing much. Post it pls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 New 7 Day from KPTV! 5 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: I really wouldn’t complain if this verified. Took me a second to figure out this. I was thinking...these are the same colors, but are almost 3 times larger. 2 1 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Frontal Snowsquall said: New 7 Day from KPTV! it didn’t have highs below 40 Before this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Post it pls 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 26 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Overall trend has been pretty consistent in saying I get the shaft when it comes to snow this time. I guess I’ll have to settle for single-digit minima and highs in the teens as a consolation prize (assuming that pans out). P.S. And I’m still rooting for an unforecast surface low or two to spin up in the cold outflow on the BC coast. Some of those model runs are cumulative over a week out, and we all know how accurate model runs a week out typically are. while that might be good for your backyard it would be bad for the region they tend to either cause cold air to be delayed or shunt the cold air to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, Cloud said: WRF shows pretty significant snowfall over I-90 with the PSCZ and extends into the EPSL just to the south of North Bend. Also at Sno/King line. Understandable why the NWS puts out a WWA even though the Euro isn't showing much. Just for clarification... the WRF showed most of that snow around North Bend happening over the next couple hours and not during the night. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Just for clarification... the WRF showed most of that snow around North Bend happening over the next couple hours and not during the night. Yeah, Cliff thinks its a 500ft+ scenario and a quick melt as well, especially at around the Sno/King counties line. I'm still in favor of what the Euro is showing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I think it's 18 from 1989. For the old city records it's 20 from 1923 and that was mid month. Ok, I was looking at bremerton and it was 18.2 1989 February. If I remember right the most consecutive days for bremerton with highs below freezing was Nov 85? We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said: New 7 Day from KPTV! I bet Mark didn’t make this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, FroYoBro said: I bet Mark didn’t make this. He did say “buckle up” to someone on twitter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, Timmy said: He did say “buckle up” to someone on twitter Just waiting for that blog post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, Timmy said: He did say “buckle up” to someone on twitter Interesting. Maybe he means buckle up for the model riding? It seems too far out for his conservative style. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: Interesting. Maybe he means buckle up for the model riding? It seems too far out for his conservative style. I am sure its about model riding. I don't care what credentials Mark has... there is not anyone on the planet who knows what will happen at this point. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 2/1/89 was a chilly day for my area! 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 30 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: It is quite likely you will be significantly colder and snowier than that. Lol I am sure it will too. Best to set your expectations low though! Pretty sure we will get more than an inch of snow...but I’d be happy with anything after how this winters been. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 7, 2021 Report Share Posted February 7, 2021 Mark seemed to think the 12z EURO seemed pretty reasonable, but said it was just one run, and we shouldn't read to much into it. 4 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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